Red Sox players with the most to gain and lose in Spring Training
Most positions on the 2017 Boston Red Sox roster are set, but that doesn’t mean that some players don’t have anything to play for.
With the full squad in Fort Myers to participate in Spring Training, there isn’t much left to be decided on the Red Sox major league roster. Led by the best trio of starting pitchers in baseball (Porcello, Price, Sale) and a lineup that scored 33 more runs than any other MLB team, the Sox are early favorites to hoist the Commissioner’s Trophy come October.
None of that means that every position is set in stone, or that the roster we see when the Red Sox host the Pirates at Fenway on April 3rd will be the same one that takes the field if the team makes it to October. No, there are still players that are susceptible to movement and roster spots that will be decided during Spring Training.
Third base could turn into a black hole for the Sox in 2016. Pablo Sandoval is penciled in as the starter, but he remains surrounded by uncertainty. Following Porcello, Price, and Sale, there are two rotation spots left for three competent starters, who’s the odd one out? Then there’s the potential that Sandy Leon’s 2016 was a fluke and we’re left to wonder whether Christian Vazquez or Blake Swihart can finally make the jump and solidify himself as a major league catcher.
For some of these questions, answers won’t come until midway through the season. Other’s will likely have a solution by mid-March. Nevertheless, these are the players that stand to win or lose the most in 2017.
Pablo Sandoval: Both?
I’m starting this off with Pablo because he’s a walking paradox at this point. A 3-time champion and World Series MVP while a member of the SF Giants, he hasn’t come close to resembling his former self since signing with the Red Sox in 2015. He’s in a rare situation where expectations are so low that if he’s able to produce anything, it’ll be considered surplus value. On the flip side, his career could be in jeopardy if he isn’t able to prove that he still belongs on a major league roster.
Credit where it’s due, he’s lost a lot of visible weight prior to camp and seems motivated to take back his job at third. After showing up significantly overweight last season and hitting just .244 in Spring Training, he lost the starting position to Travis Shaw. Shaw was dealt to Milwaukee in December as the primary piece in the trade that acquired RHP Tyler Thornburg.
Third base is Sandoval’s to lose this season, but it won’t come without competition. Super-utility man Brock Holt is next in line to take the hot corner; he started 11 games at third last season, more than any other infield position. Further down the depth chart are Josh Rutledge, Matt Dominguez, and Mike Olt. Only Holt and Rutledge are expected to find a spot on the major league roster, though it would be fun having a Holt and an Olt on the Red Sox.
If Pablo delivers on all his promises and workout videos, he’ll stand to gain more than any other player on the roster. The team isn’t asking him to do anything he hasn’t done before, so it’s within reason to think that he could reclaim his productivity. On the other hand, he has been a shell of his former self for the last two, arguably three seasons. If he can’t show that he’s capable of playing at this level, his major league career seems to be over.
Brock Holt: Win
It’s only natural to segue into Brock Holt after discussing Pablo. Like Travis Shaw a year ago, if Holt can put together a solid spring training and significantly outplay Sandoval, the hot corner could be his.
Apart from the outfield, Holt’s spent more time at third in his career than any other position. His play at third is adequate, over his career he’s been worth -12 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) over 798.2 innings. It’s interesting to note that Sandoval, who was remarkably bad at third in 2015, has an identical DRS in a Red Sox uniform.
Offensively, Holt has been a league average hitter for most of his career. Aside from his All-Star performance in the first half of the 2015 season, he hasn’t done much to impress with the bat. He followed up his .280/.322/.383 slash line in 2015 with a disappointing .255 average and .705 OPS.
By virtue of depth alone, he could be Boston’s starting third baseman in 2017. That’s not an ideal situation from a team perspective, they would prefer to see Sandoval regain his previous stature, and utilize Holt’s versatility. But a combination of poor performance from Pablo and great play from Holt could see this situation play out come April. Because of this, Brock Holt stands to gain a lot should things align in his favor this spring.
Drew Pomeranz: Lose
Since being acquired at the deadline, Pomeranz has failed to live up to his All-Star worthy play in San Diego. After pitching to a 2.47 ERA and 164 ERA+ as a Padre, his arm wore down as a with the Red Sox, posting respective marks of 4.59 and 100. There is a big question mark surrounding his health going into Spring Training, specifically the strength of his pitching elbow. Because of his poor play and health concerns, Pomeranz will battle with Steven Wright and Eduardo Rodriguez for the final two spots in the rotation.
The two pitchers Pomeranz will battle for a spot in the rotation have their own health concerns as well. In an inexplicable decision last season, manager John Farrell pinch-ran Wright during a game against the Dodgers. After diving back to second, he missed two weeks with a shoulder injury before being shut down for the season. As for Rodriguez, he tweaked his right knee playing in the Venezuelan Winter League – the same injury that cost him two months at the beginning of the 2016 season. He appears to be fine and will pitch for Venezuela in the World Baseball Classic, but it yet to be seen whether the injury will affect his delivery as it did last season.
By his own account, Pomeranz is solely focused on earning a starting job in the rotation. It’s rare that an All-Star pitcher comes into Spring Training battling for a position, but the Red Sox are unusually deep at the major league level. If the stem-cell injection that Pomeranz described as ‘experimental’ doesn’t alleviate the strain put on his elbow from last season, he could see himself sitting on the right field bench come April 3rd.
Joe Kelly: Win
Similar to Pomeranz, the trade that saw that Red Sox acquire Joe Kelly hasn’t played out in Boston’s favor. Sent over with Allen Craig for John Lackey in 2014, management has insisted that he was fit for the starting rotation up until July last season. Since officially transitioning to the bullpen, Kelly has fit into a role that he seems perfectly suited for.
We knew what Joe Kelly was a starting pitcher. In 413.1 career innings, he owns a 4.13 ERA – suggesting nothing more than mediocrity. However, as a reliever last season he put up a 1.02 ERA and 10.9 K/9 in 14 appearances. Small sample size aside, Kelly was flat out impressive. Especially during the postseason where he retired all 11 batters faced, three by strikeout.
Expecting the type of numbers he put up last season is foolish, he would have to be included in the discussion for one of the top-3 relievers in baseball. But it is reasonable to expect him to be a solid relief pitcher going forward. Kelly’s more effective in this role and the underlying numbers are there to back it up. Tyler Thornburg and Craig Kimbrel are locks to begin the year as the two main late inning guys, but if what we’ve seen out of Kelly is for real, he could become a big weapon for the Red Sox late in games.
Sandy Leon: Lose
A career .187 hitter prior to the 2016 season, Sandy Leon broke out with a .310 average and .845 OPS over 78 games after earning the starting position. If John Farrell’s comments at the Boston Baseball Writers’ Dinner are any indication, he’ll start the year as the team’s catcher.
What Sandy Leon did last year, I don’t know that anyone anticipated the offensive production. He was fantastic. If we were to start today, he’d go in probably as the lead guy to the position.
While he’ll begin the year behind the plate, there’s no guarantee that we’ll see him there for the duration of the season. He’s the first American League catcher to hit over .310 since Joe Mauer did it in 2008, and yet there are still many doubting his ability to hit consistently. When you dig deeper into his numbers, it’s easy to see why.
His .310 average and .845 OPS are overinflated by a torrid stretch over his first 30 games when he hit .391/.434/.620. Over the other 48, he managed to bat just .263/.333/.394. The argument that his 2016 season was a fluke is compounded by a .218 average with no home runs and just 7 runs batted in over his final 24 games. Waiting in the wings are two promising young catchers in Christian Vazquez and Blake Swihart.
Vazquez is heralded as one of the best defensive catchers in all of baseball, despite missing the entirety of 2015 and losing the starting job in 2016. Meanwhile, Swihart was ranked a top-20 prospect as recently as two years ago and is by far the most athletic of the three. If Leon can’t find the offensive touch that put him in this position last season, expect the Red Sox to make a switch sooner than later.
Next: Can Rick Porcello repeat his Cy Young season?
I’m sure there are some players or storylines that I’m leaving out. Who do you think should be included in this list? Let me know in the comment section.