While there are a few hitters in the Boston Red Sox lineup with questions heading into the season, none have more to prove than Mitch Moreland.
Of the hitters expected to open in the season in the starting lineup for the Boston Red Sox, who has the most on the line?
Many will jump to say Pablo Sandoval, whose dismal first year in Boston was followed by one almost entirely wiped out by injury. It’s fair to say that Sandoval will be under the microscope this spring, but the veteran third baseman has nearly 60 million more reasons not to get too distraught over another disappointing season.
One player that doesn’t have several more years left on a lucrative contract to fall back on is Mitch Moreland. After seven seasons with the Texas Rangers, Moreland came to Boston on a 1-year “prove it” deal. He’ll earn a modest $5.5 million in 2017 before hitting the free agent market in search of a multi-year deal.
Considering he’ll be 32 by the time he hits the market again, there’s a chance that next winter will be Moreland’s last chance to secure a long-term contract. In order to earn that, he’ll need to produce.
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Moreland’s 2016 season was a mixed bag, which explains why he had to settle for a 1-year deal. On one hand, his stellar defensive play was rewarded with the first Gold Glove award of his career, but his contributions at the plate left a lot to be desired. While he did top 20 home runs for the third time in the last four seasons, Moreland hit a paltry .233 with an on-base percentage that dipped below .300 for the third time in his career.
There is a precedent to suspect Moreland is capable of being an above-average hitter. He showed some modest success in limited playing time early in his career and had a bit of a breakout season in 2015 when he hit .278/.330/.482 with 23 home runs and 85 RBI. If he hits anywhere near that level for the Red Sox this season then he’ll prove to be a tremendous bargain and ensure himself of a hefty payday.
If his bat doesn’t show up this season, the multi-year offers won’t either. Moreland has produced an OPS+ below 100 (which is considered average) in five of his seven seasons in the majors. His bat has a decent amount of pop, but not nearly enough to compensate if he struggles to hit above his own weight again.
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While most of the starting lineup is relatively secure in their roles, Moreland also has to contend with rising prospect Sam Travis breathing down his neck. If Travis is tearing it up in Pawtucket while Moreland is struggling, it will be difficult for the Red Sox to resist calling up their first base prospect. Losing playing time would further curtail Moreland’s efforts to find his next contract and essentially ensure that his next deal will be somewhere other than Boston.
Even if Travis isn’t ready for his debut this season, Boston has the option to shift Hanley Ramirez back to first base and rotate the designated hitter role between several different players. It’s a solution the Red Sox may already be considering against lefties if Moreland’s career-long issues against southpaws force him into a platoon. Chris Young and Blake Swihart are candidates to fill in as the DH while Ramirez goes back to fielding the position he was shockingly competent at last year.
Moreland is capable of adding some value to this team with his defense, but he has to prove that he’s not a liability at the plate. If he can hit above .250 with 20+ homers while saving plenty of runs with his glove, he’ll be viewed as a good value that could potentially stick around beyond this season.
If not, the Red Sox won’t hesitate to cut bait and there won’t be many suitors lining up to take a chance on him.
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Moreland should see plenty of pitches to hit in his spot near the bottom of a stacked lineup and will be given every opportunity to succeed. He certainly has it in him to become a productive member of this team, but the downside is far greater given that we know the other hitters in the lineup aren’t likely to be going anywhere after this season.