Do the Red Sox need another 30/100 season from Ramirez?
A lineup with few power-hitters could use a guy that can hit at least 30 homers and Ramirez appears to be the most likely source. Betts shattered his previous career-high with 31 last year, but with his limited track record it’s far from a given that he’ll reach that total on an annual basis.
Big Papi is gone and he took his 38 homers from last season with him. He’ll primarily be replaced by Mitch Moreland, who will probably only provide about half of that total. Given the steep task of making up for that lost power, can the Red Sox afford to have Ramirez’s home run total drop off?
In short, yes, so long as that production doesn’t drop off a cliff. Boston led the majors in runs scored last year despite finishing only middle of the pack in home runs. The long ball is exciting, but Boston’s lineup has plenty of other ways to manufacture runs.
In order for this offense to thrive with fewer home runs, they will need Ramirez’ bat to drive in runs in other ways. He’ll get plenty of opportunities, but if he develops a habit of stranding runners from a vital run producing spot in the lineup, the offense could stagnate.
Boston needs Ramirez to perform because he’s the best option to protect Betts in the lineup. If Ramirez regresses back toward his 2015 level then opposing teams will simply pitch around Betts to get to him. If HanRam proves he can make pitchers pay for doing so then they’ll think twice about it, thereby allowing their MVP candidate to see better pitches from the cleanup spot.
Last year was the first time in his career that Ramirez reached 30 home runs and 100 RBI in the same season, so it seems a bit optimistic to assume he’ll reach both benchmarks again. That doesn’t necessarily mean we should prepare for another massive disappointment though.
If Hanley can hit at least .280 with an OPS above .850, a home run total in the mid-20’s and 100+ RBI then the Red Sox will be satisfied with that. Since he won’t see enough time in the field for defensive metrics to weigh down his value, that production should be worth at least 3.0 WAR. That’s not quite enough to be worth his hefty salary, but that ship sailed by the time the ink dried on his contract.
Next: Can Wright succeed in the bullpen?
Ramirez doesn’t necessarily need to reach both of these superficial goals, but he does have to hit enough to be considered a threat in the middle of this lineup. Now that he doesn’t have to worry about his defense, there’s no reason why he can’t do that.