Red Sox: Can Hanley Ramirez replicate last season’s production?

Why he will hit 30+ home runs

Staying healthy will certainly be a key to Ramirez matching last year’s total, but the flip side to this argument is that the number of games he has missed over the years is partially responsible for dragging down his average home run production. His health should be less of a concern now that he’s expected to spend the bulk of his time as a designated hitter, reducing the wear and tear on his body and limiting the opportunities where he could get hurt.

His first year in Boston was a disappointment, but his lack of production can partially be blamed on a shoulder injury he sustained crashing into the left field wall in May of that season. The injury curtailed a hot start that saw Ramirez blast 10 home runs in April, as he wasn’t the same hitter after colliding with that wall. His ailing shoulder sapped his power, while a number of nagging injuries conspired to derail the rest of his season, which ultimately was shut down in late August.

Last year proved that a healthy Ramirez has regained his power stroke. He’ll enter spring training this year in great shape, which he should be able to sustain in his new DH role.

Ramirez’s history suggests that he will thrive in his new role. Over the course of his career, he owns a .331/.381/.634 slash line with 10 home runs in 155 plate appearances serving as a DH. It’s a relatively small sample size, but his pace of hitting a home run every 15.5 plate appearances is well above his career rate of a homer every 26.3 plate appearances. Extrapolate his career rate as a DH over a full season and it would put him on pace for a 40 home run season!

While he’s only shown modest power throughout his career, we have to consider that most of that time has been spent in pitcher-friendly parks in Los Angeles and Miami. Fenway Park isn’t as inviting to home run hitters as it’s reputation as a hitter’s park suggests, but it’s a launching pad compared to Dodger Stadium and Marlins Park (or Miami’s old ballpark, Hard Rock Stadium, which generally ranked in the lower half in the majors for home runs). Hitting the ball out of Fenway is easier than doing so in any of the previous parks he once called home, particularly for a right-handed slugger that can blast moonshots over the shallow wall in left field.