Red Sox: Can Hanley Ramirez replicate last season’s production?
One of the biggest questions facing the Boston Red Sox entering this season is if Hanley Ramirez can provide the run production that he delivered in 2016.
Which version of Hanley Ramirez will the Boston Red Sox get this year? It’s a fair question to ask considering the drastically different performances we’ve witnessed through his first two seasons since signing a 4-year, $88 million free agent contract.
2015 proved to be a disastrous return to the franchise that drafted him fifteen years earlier. Ramirez failed to adjust to his new position in left field, rating among the worst defensive players in baseball at any position.
His glove was considered an afterthought when the Red Sox signed him. They were paying him to hit, but unfortunately he didn’t deliver at the plate either. Ramirez managed a mere .249 average, .717 OPS, 19 home runs and 53 RBI that season, falling far short of expectations for the highest paid hitter on the team.
Last year, Ramirez salvaged his Red Sox career, shedding the dreaded bust label by bursting out with a .286 average, .866 OPS, 30 home runs and 111 RBI. Providing serviceable defense after transitioning to first base was the icing on the cake.
Can Ramirez replicate last year’s home run and RBI production? That remains one of the biggest questions entering the 2017 season. With David Ortiz‘s retirement costing the Red Sox a significant portion of their offensive firepower, they’ll need Ramirez’ bat in the middle of the order more than ever.
Why he won’t reach 30 homers
We know that Ramirez is certainly capable of belting at least 30 home runs in a season, but we must recognize that this display of power is not the norm based on his track record.
Last season was only the second time in his career that Ramirez reached that mark and the first since 2008. In the seven years in between, his season high was 24, while he averaged only about 18 home runs during that stretch.
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We also have to consider that last season’s total may have been a bit of a fluke. Ramirez went into the All-Star break with only eight homers before catching fire in the second half. From August 27 to September 22, Ramirez belted 13 home runs, accounting for nearly half of his season total in a span of just over three weeks. His bat would eventually cool off, but can we really count on him to reach that scorching level again?
Ramirez also produced his first and only three-home run game on July 20, which is an accomplishment that he’s unlikely to replicate considering only a handful of hitters in franchise history have ever done it more than once.
For Ramirez to reach 30 home runs he’ll need to stay in the lineup long enough to give himself a shot, which hasn’t always been a given for him. The 33-year old has played in less than 130 games in four of the last six seasons and avoiding a trip to the disabled list gets increasingly more difficult as players age.
Why he will hit 30+ home runs
Staying healthy will certainly be a key to Ramirez matching last year’s total, but the flip side to this argument is that the number of games he has missed over the years is partially responsible for dragging down his average home run production. His health should be less of a concern now that he’s expected to spend the bulk of his time as a designated hitter, reducing the wear and tear on his body and limiting the opportunities where he could get hurt.
His first year in Boston was a disappointment, but his lack of production can partially be blamed on a shoulder injury he sustained crashing into the left field wall in May of that season. The injury curtailed a hot start that saw Ramirez blast 10 home runs in April, as he wasn’t the same hitter after colliding with that wall. His ailing shoulder sapped his power, while a number of nagging injuries conspired to derail the rest of his season, which ultimately was shut down in late August.
Last year proved that a healthy Ramirez has regained his power stroke. He’ll enter spring training this year in great shape, which he should be able to sustain in his new DH role.
Ramirez’s history suggests that he will thrive in his new role. Over the course of his career, he owns a .331/.381/.634 slash line with 10 home runs in 155 plate appearances serving as a DH. It’s a relatively small sample size, but his pace of hitting a home run every 15.5 plate appearances is well above his career rate of a homer every 26.3 plate appearances. Extrapolate his career rate as a DH over a full season and it would put him on pace for a 40 home run season!
While he’s only shown modest power throughout his career, we have to consider that most of that time has been spent in pitcher-friendly parks in Los Angeles and Miami. Fenway Park isn’t as inviting to home run hitters as it’s reputation as a hitter’s park suggests, but it’s a launching pad compared to Dodger Stadium and Marlins Park (or Miami’s old ballpark, Hard Rock Stadium, which generally ranked in the lower half in the majors for home runs). Hitting the ball out of Fenway is easier than doing so in any of the previous parks he once called home, particularly for a right-handed slugger that can blast moonshots over the shallow wall in left field.
What about the RBI production?
Fans are enamored with the long ball, but the number of runs batted in that Ramirez piles up will be vital to the success of this lineup regardless of how he drives them in.
The 111 RBI Ramirez produced last season was a career-high and only the second time he’s ever topped the century mark. Since his first full season in 2006, Ramirez has averaged just over 74 RBI per year.
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Generally when analyzing a veteran that has been in the league as long as Ramirez, you would put more stock in the larger sample size rather than singling out a particular season. Recency bias can fool us into assuming what we saw last year is the new normal, yet that’s often not the case. However, with Ramirez there are factors that would lead us to believe otherwise.
As we discussed, the number of games Ramirez has missed over the course of his career has limited his run production. If becoming a full-time DH helps keep him in the lineup then the same argument for why that will boost his home run rate applies to his RBI total.
Until he came to Boston, Ramirez had never hit in a lineup this stacked. The Red Sox led the league in runs scored by a mile last year and should remain among the elite offenses even without Ortiz.
Ramirez is expected to hit fifth in a loaded lineup that projects to have Dustin Pedroia, Andrew Benintendi, Xander Bogaerts and Mookie Betts ahead of him. All four of those hitters at adept at getting on base, producing an OBP north of .350 last season. Ramirez, who owns a .294 career average with runners in scoring position, will be salivating over the ample opportunities this lineup affords him to drive in runs.
Do the Red Sox need another 30/100 season from Ramirez?
A lineup with few power-hitters could use a guy that can hit at least 30 homers and Ramirez appears to be the most likely source. Betts shattered his previous career-high with 31 last year, but with his limited track record it’s far from a given that he’ll reach that total on an annual basis.
Big Papi is gone and he took his 38 homers from last season with him. He’ll primarily be replaced by Mitch Moreland, who will probably only provide about half of that total. Given the steep task of making up for that lost power, can the Red Sox afford to have Ramirez’s home run total drop off?
In short, yes, so long as that production doesn’t drop off a cliff. Boston led the majors in runs scored last year despite finishing only middle of the pack in home runs. The long ball is exciting, but Boston’s lineup has plenty of other ways to manufacture runs.
In order for this offense to thrive with fewer home runs, they will need Ramirez’ bat to drive in runs in other ways. He’ll get plenty of opportunities, but if he develops a habit of stranding runners from a vital run producing spot in the lineup, the offense could stagnate.
Boston needs Ramirez to perform because he’s the best option to protect Betts in the lineup. If Ramirez regresses back toward his 2015 level then opposing teams will simply pitch around Betts to get to him. If HanRam proves he can make pitchers pay for doing so then they’ll think twice about it, thereby allowing their MVP candidate to see better pitches from the cleanup spot.
Last year was the first time in his career that Ramirez reached 30 home runs and 100 RBI in the same season, so it seems a bit optimistic to assume he’ll reach both benchmarks again. That doesn’t necessarily mean we should prepare for another massive disappointment though.
If Hanley can hit at least .280 with an OPS above .850, a home run total in the mid-20’s and 100+ RBI then the Red Sox will be satisfied with that. Since he won’t see enough time in the field for defensive metrics to weigh down his value, that production should be worth at least 3.0 WAR. That’s not quite enough to be worth his hefty salary, but that ship sailed by the time the ink dried on his contract.
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Ramirez doesn’t necessarily need to reach both of these superficial goals, but he does have to hit enough to be considered a threat in the middle of this lineup. Now that he doesn’t have to worry about his defense, there’s no reason why he can’t do that.