Red Sox: Five keys to a World Series championship in 2017
The Boston Red Sox will be a favorite to matchup against the Cubs in the 2017 World Series. What are the keys to success? Here are five.
Keys are wonderful for locking and unlocking doors or just about anything you wish to keep secure. Keys can also be described as a pathway to success or failure – a non-physical entry. The Boston Red Sox certainly have several things that must come together for fans to make October baseball plans.
The team made some rather dramatic moves, including the splashy and controversial trade that may solidify the present and destroy the future. Time will be the determining factor, but the fan base is further energized and it shows with an uptick in ticket sales.
The team itself is certainly one that can generate excitement with a nice blend of youth and veteran experience. Even the departure of a legend has not dampened an optimistic outlook. From my perch in Red Barber’s famed catbird seat, I see a solid team that could approach 100 wins. Of course, a key I omitted was health. That is obvious. A rash of injuries and down it all goes.
So take a gander at the five I have selected.
Where does thou find hitting?
The 2016 Red Sox were an offensive juggernaut with a relentless lineup and it is reflected in the overall team statistics for the American League. Boston led in virtually every category that signifies run production. The idea is to produce runs and Boston finished first with 878. On the road, they also led in run production with 401.
Digging deeper Boston led the league in hitting (.282), On-Base Percentage (.348), wOBA (.346), wRC+ (113), BABIP (.320) and slugging (.461). The road figures were lower, but still among the best of all teams on offensive road performance. If you love WAR the Red Sox topped the fWAR chart at 33.9.
Now a big part of that performance has evaporated into retirement. David Ortiz is gone and so are his league leading 127 RBI. That is a potential statistical road block, but there is a positive. The younger players may be up a notch on offense. Newcomer Mitch Moreland could get into the 80+ RBI mode.
One certain item to watch closely is Hanley Ramirez. Was the 30 home runs and 111 RBI a last hitting gasp before returning back to the mundane of the previous several years? There are always question marks and much of it is related to injuries. The unthinkable is a series of nagging injuries that limit production or a catastrophic one that takes a big offensive chunk out of the lineup.
The Red Sox will in all probability see a decrease in run production, but just how much could place pressure on the pitching staff. The call here is matching that road total from 2016 and tacking on 420 at home. In 2016 the run differential was 184+ for the best in the American League. Offense will provide enough.
Rise of the starting rotation
This staff is absolutely loaded and it starts with a rotation that is, on paper, the best I have ever seen in Boston – and I go back a long way. The staff has two Cy Young Award winners in tow and in Chris Sale a possible third. The remaining parts of the rotation have a potential rising star in Eduardo Rodriguez and a returning surprise in Steven Wright.
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Management felt comfortable enough to jettison Clay Buchholz and that leaves a disappointing Drew Pomeranz looking to battle it out for a rotation slot. The good news is the Red Sox staff was ranked second in fWAR (13.8) in the American League in 2016. The team also finished second in road performance. The fresh breath of consistency.
The rotation survived some dysfunction in 2016 to still post those rather commendable numbers and the expectation is that will improve with the acquisition of Sale and the full slate of starts for Wright. Pomeranz provides some stability in case on a tweak or two.
What the Red Sox will need is the top five in the rotation to collectively provide 140 starts. The less starts among the class of the rotation the more likely that a Henry Owens will be called into the fray. That happens the Red Sox will be in deep trouble.
The bullpen puts out fires instead of starting them
The Red Sox survived the loss of closer Craig Kimbrel for several weeks. I wish I could survive a Kimbrel mixed bag appearance without the use of my portable defibrillator. Walks are my personal baseball albatross and Kimbrel is patient zero, but that said Kimbrel is still an élite closer.
The much-maligned Red Sox relief staff was just not that bad. I tend to perseverate on the occasional meltdown, but that is baseball. Overall Boston’s ‘pen was ranked sixth in the American League (fWAR 4.9) and second on road performance.
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Bullpens are notoriously inconsistent and fragile. Last season there were three significant slices removed at times during the season. The most debilitating were Carson Smith who is probably gone until June and both Junichi Tazawa and Koji Uehara who had down time and are now gone. The key replacement part Tyler Thornburg.
Thornburg certainly cost the team, but just a glance catches my attention – a WHIP of 0.94. Thornburg has the nasty habit of issuing walks (3.4 BB/9) but is stingy allowing hits (5.1 H/9). The right-handed Thornburg can also grab a K when necessary with a 12.1 K/9. Can he do it in the American League?
The hope around the campfire is a trio of right-handed fireballers will put the kibosh on any uprisings. For Boston’s ‘pen to stand out Matt Barnes, Heath Hembree, and Joe Kelly need to be solid as does any lefty they have stepping in.
The lefties are nothing that makes me put on my dancing shoes. Robby Scott and Robbie Ross appear to be in the average category – you can never have enough “Robbies.” Fernando Abad does not make any right-handed hitters quiver with fear, but he does instill fan fear in the populous when they see a BB/9 of 5.7. Roenis Elias hit four figures on his earned run average. Good luck.
On the road again
Traditionally Red Sox teams went on the road not to win, but to die. Tracing back into championship years the Red Sox won on the road. The victories may not have been excessive, but they were no cream pies. In 2016 you had a remarkable road team. Boston finished 46-35 (.568) on the road and 47-34 (.580) at home.
In 2016 the only downside was a “June Swoon” that had Boston play 10-16 (.385 home/road) before getting the express back on the tracks. Still, Boston managed the best road record in the American League and that is a key to success.
The Red Sox should remain a viable road team based on their pitching, top to bottom hitting, excellent defense and team speed. This is unlike most Red Sox teams that are historically built for Fenway Park, where the lineup is slanted towards power bats and ponderous sluggers who jam up the base paths.
The statistics for the offense and pitching have already been mentioned and they certainly provide the insight that explains that league-best road record. Now if they can only win on the road when it really counts – the playoffs.
Where is Tito? Where is Theo?
The management of the team is certainly open to debate with the pro and anti-John Farrell forces divided. Farrell’s game management skills are certainly questionable and rightly so. And, yes, it was not just the infamous pinch running situation.
The upside to Farrell is his leadership skills within the clubhouse. Farrell is obviously respected by his players and does keep a lid on any internal disputes among his group of sensitive millionaires. This cannot be understated in this day and age – that is an important ingredient and may have saved Farrell’s hide.
Farrell has been given the blessing by management since he has not only been given another year, but has had his option also picked up. Two more years gives the manager a comfort zone and players know that senior management has some degree of confidence.
Dave Dombrowski will be St. Dave or become as vilified as Harry Frazee. The trades could backfire with the failure of performance in Boston and those dearly departed becoming All-Stars elsewhere. Risk versus reward. If a banner or two that is emblazoned with World Series Champions flutters over Fenway in 2017 or 2018 it will be Theo who?
Next: Red Sox claim Steve Selsky off waivers
DD’s work is not done – not by a very long shot. What happens when the plumbing leaks and the foundation cracks? Ah….DD will be called upon for some in season repairs and if that is handled with some degree of efficiency then all will proceed as planned.
Sources: Fangraphs