First Base
For the purpose of this experiment, let’s assume that Mitch Moreland takes most of the first base reps and Hanley Ramirez is mostly regulated to the designated hitter role, although this has yet to be confirmed.
What Moreland brings to the table is a slightly below average to average bat for a first baseman but a plus glove. In fact, he was the recipient of the Gold Glove Award last season, registering +7 defensive runs saved and a 6.4 UZR. But while first base defense is important because it gives the rest of the infield more throwing confidence, the Red Sox will be more concerned with his offensive production.
Moreland has been off-and-on with the bat in recent years, registering a .278/.330/.482 slash line in 2015 before falling to a .233/.298/.422 line in 2016. The power is consistent, as his .204 and .189 ISO numbers are similar from the two seasons. His strikeout and walk rates have stayed relatively stagnant as well, but his hits just weren’t falling last year. Some of that can be attributed to bad luck, as his BABIP declined harshly from .317 to an irregular .266. But he began to hit more fly balls and fewer ground balls, a transition that often leads to more power but a declining batting average. He also curiously adopted reverse splits, another unusual development for a veteran left-hander. It’s not unreasonable to think that Moreland can bounce back with the bat in 2017, but it’s far from a guarantee.
However, the Indians clearly sport the more dangerous weapon at first base, assuming that newcomer Encarnacion takes most of the reps at first and Carlos Santana stays in his current DH role. A longtime division rival and Red Sox tormenter, Encarnacion has been nothing short of fearsome in the last five seasons. In that span, he averages 35 homers and 101 RBIs to go along with a .272/.363/.531 slash line. Simply put, he’s one of the game’s top run producers, and while he is going into his age 34 season, there’s little reason to assume he’ll slow down too much with the bat.
Advantage: Indians