The Boston Red Sox were right to avoid signing Edwin Encarnacion
The obvious fit isn’t always the best fit.
After a season full of speculation and on-going rumors in the offseason (no matter how farfetched they may have been) the Edwin Encarnacion to the Boston Red Sox narrative was put to bed on Thursday after the Indians locked up the slugger. Encarnacion signed for a guaranteed $60 million over three years with a $25 million option and $5 million buyout.
When considering the true value of a player that has slashed .269/.361/.544 while averaging 38 home runs, 112 RBI, and an OPS+ of 143 over the last three seasons his deal looks like a steal. And with the departure of David Ortiz at DH, why couldn’t the Red Sox have found space in the budget for EE? After all, they just dumped $13 million by trading Clay Buchholz.
The most obvious concern is with Encarnacion’s age. The 34-year old is guaranteed to play for the Indians until his age-37 season, with the potential to stay with the club until he turns 38. That’s not to say there isn’t a precedent for players excelling into their late-30s, as Red Sox fans we’re well aware of the phenomenon. The issue is that players like David Ortiz are the exception, not the rule. Encarnacion has shown some signs of decline – but nothing major – at this point in his career. His strikeout rate increased 4% over his 2015 mark while his flyball rate dropped 4%. His in-zone contact percentage has dropped steadily since 2013 as well, however, Edwin’s been able to mitigate these concerns by posting the numbers he has.
Frankly, the Red Sox didn’t need to find the space. Most fans have been upset at this: how can the Red Sox, a big-market team, be outbid by the Cleveland Indians on such a team-friendly deal? The obvious answer is that they didn’t have space in the 2017 budget, instead opting for a cheap, short-term replacement in Mitch Moreland. But a deeper look hints towards the front office making a strategic decision to save that money for the future.
The team’s current payroll projects to fall under the $195 million luxury tax threshold after the subtraction of Buchholz’s salary, but that doesn’t mean they can afford to tie up $20 million over the next 3-4 years. With that in mind, the front office should begin turning its attention to extensions for their core of young talent: Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, and Jackie Bradley Jr.
Spend on the stars that we have.
Beginning with Xander because he has the most MLB experience of the three, he can enter free agency as early as 2019. His agent is the notoriously patient and effective Scott Boras so he won’t come cheap, but that doesn’t diminish the importance of coming to an agreement. There isn’t a prospect of Bogaerts’ calibre waiting in the minors to take his spot once he reaches free agency. And it isn’t every day that teams trade a future cornerstone shortstop for nothing – unless you’re the Diamondbacks.
The same can be said for JBJ. He’s entering his third year of team control and will reach free agency by 2020. Unlike Bogaerts, acquiring quality outfielders is not as difficult a task as locking down a franchise shortstop. But finding a glove like Bradley’s is rare, and with the offensive potential he flashed in 2016, he could develop an all-around game worthy of consistent all-star consideration. Or Bradley could fail to address his glaring strikeout rate or lefty on lefty splits and remain as inconsistent as he’s always been. Time will define Bradley’s ceiling as a player, but the quality of his glove will at minimum make him an everyday big leaguer.
As the most valuable of the three, extending Mookie Betts should be the front office’s largest concern. The most recent in-house comparison can be made to the Red Sox’ extension of Dustin Pedroia following his MVP campaign in 2008. His 6-year/$40 million seems laughable in today’s terms but was a major commitment at the time. A similar extension for Mookie would need to be about $100 million higher as a starting point to buy out some of his arbitration years. Most recently, Mike Trout signed a 6-year/$144 million extension after his second full season. Although he had Rookie of the Year and MVP awards to back up his argument.
Extending all three might not be possible but hopefully, management is beginning to turn their attention towards future resource allocation. At the moment the three combined for 17.3 WAR while earning a total of $1,763,000 in 2016. The team spent roughly $100,000/win on three of its most valuable players, yet still crossed the luxury tax threshold a season ago. With a nearly identical lineup and much-improved pitching staff, spending the extra money to win now while sacrificing the potential for the future just doesn’t make sense from a management perspective. The Red Sox were right to avoid any long-term commitments in signing Edwin Encarnacion, they already have players deserving of the money on their roster.