Boston Red Sox: Is Yoan Moncada too good to fail?
By Rick McNair
This Boston Red Sox fan is having some creeping doubts about the potential of Yoan Moncada. Maybe giving him up in the Chris Sale deal was the right move.
“I have a bad feeling about this” is an often repeated phrase that is used to express misgivings about a situation. Since this is baseball I have a bad feeling and it is a gnawing doubt that is bouncing around the recesses of my mind that Yoan Moncada is not going to be a superstar or even a star player.
The top prospect in the Boston Red Sox organization was the centerpiece of a deal that landed Chris Sale from the Chicago White Sox. We know exactly what Sale is – one of the top pitchers in baseball. We’re less certain about what Moncada will be, a notion Dave Dombrowski certainly had in mind when he pulled the trigger on this trade.
Moncada is a sure-fire can’t miss prospect because all the scouts and talent experts told us so. All of those concurring opinions just can’t be wrong. Experts just have to be right as they most certainly were in the last election – oops! Or maybe that weather forecast for a foot of snow that doesn’t materialize?
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I’ll venture into the belly of the logic beast and claim White Sox fans are in for some serious Moncada disappointment and Boston should be applauded for dealing him while his value remains at its peak. He’ll play and he will contribute, but not at the levels predicted.
Trust me – I almost hit it with Lars Anderson being a consistent 30+ home run threat and Felix Doubront winning 18 games. I’ll leave my Ryan Lavarnway predictions in the dust bin.
A few years ago I went to Cuba and the first stop was four days in Cienfuegos where Yasiel Puig played for a few years before cashing in on a major league contract. The locals compared Moncada to Puig in both talent and physical appearance. Both have power, speed galore and a certain flare or style points to their play.
Puig’s development has come to an abrupt halt after an All-Star year in 2014. What was supposed to be a breakout year may actually have been an MLB career high water mark. Puig may or may not return to the Dodgers and is certainly being shopped with about $18 Million left as a Dodgers obligation for the next two seasons.
Moncada was a significant investment for Boston with a signing bonus and penalties that came in at $62 Million. Not quite Rusney Castillo territory, but very close. Moncada is ranked number one among MLB prospects, according to Prospect Watch and that usually translates into a productive career – no guarantee, but a favorable track record.
Why the doubt?
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I just don’t like inconsistent contact and that is the noose around Moncada – he simply swings and missed too often. At Portland, it was 64 K’s in just 177 at-bats. Portland as in Eastern League as in Double-A. In Greenville, it was 83 in 306 at-bats and that was attributed to rust for taking a year off to head for the pot of baseball gold.
In Boston we anxiously awaited Moncada and the first few games showed promise and then the holes were discovered. MLB pitchers will exploit any weakness and for Moncada, it became apparent that changing speeds and going off the plate resulted in a fishing expedition.
I was not impressed by Moncada’s plate discipline and I do believe the Red Sox brass was disappointed. The defense was spotty and that is of little concern – at least for me. But those strikeouts! And then came the Arizona Fall League and 10 more sit downs in 24 at-bats before an injury ended his fall.
Spring training will be a focal point for Moncada observers to see if any adjustments are made that translate to more contact. Chicago may be rebuilding, but would still be best served starting him in the minors. If Moncada continues to flail away, then the worry beads will come out.
Hopefully, Moncada will be a reverse from my previously mentioned predictions, but the early concern has pegged as another Puig or Castillo.
Sources: Baseball-Reference