Boston Red Sox: Top 10 trade value player rankings
Ranking the top players in the Boston Red Sox organization in terms of how much value they would have on the trade market.
Boston Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has a reputation for making bold moves and has never been shy about pulling the trigger on a deal if he believes it can improve his team’s fortunes. Every franchise has certain players they couldn’t imagine parting with, yet no one is truly untouchable if the price is right.
Which players in the Red Sox organization hold the most trade value? Unlike the Most Valuable Player debate, which is based on the outcome of a particular season, trade value is measured by other factors that project future expectations. If you’re trading for a player based solely on what he’s done for his previous team rather than what he can do for you now then you’ve already lost the deal.
Obviously talent is key, so that gets weighted more heavily than other factors, but that’s not all that we need to consider. Here are the rules for these rankings.
Contracts matter: Mike Trout may have edged out Mookie Betts for the MVP, but despite being only a year older than the Red Sox superstar outfielder, Trout is scheduled to earn north of $20 million next season while Betts still hasn’t reached arbitration eligibility. Trout is worth every cent he makes, but Betts is one of the top bargains in the game, giving him more trade value.
Age is more than just a number: Teams in win-now mode may be more willing to go all in on a veteran that can provide immediate improvement, but generally younger players that will be around longer have more value in a trade. Older players are more likely to hit the decline phase of their careers, therefore they aren’t quite as valuable.
Not all positions are created equal: Position scarcity makes some spots more difficult to fill than others, while the up the middle positions are more valuable than the corners.
Roster check: While there is tremendous value to be found in the Red Sox farm system, for the purposes of this exercise we are focused on only those players that are on the 40-man roster.
Keep in mind that this is not a list of the most likely players to be traded, but rather a ranking of which players would bring the greatest bounty in return. The list runs in reverse order, so the player on the next slide doesn’t have quite as much value as the next guy on the list and the last slide is dedicated to the Red Sox player with the most trade value.
Age: 28
Contract Status: $13.25 million in 2017 ($13 million team option in 2018)
We have an idea of what Kimbrel can bring back in a trade given the steep price Boston paid to acquire him last winter from the San Diego Padres – a package headlined by Manuel Margot, who currently ranks as the No. 26 prospect on MLB.com’s list.
Kimbrel is now a year closer to free agency and coming off of a season in which he posted a 3.40 ERA that stands as the highest of his career, so he’s unlikely to fetch that kind of return if the Red Sox were to shop him now.
However, the game is trending toward putting significant value on elite relievers given how dominant they have been in recent postseasons. There are a number of top closers on the market this winter that are going to get paid more than enough to make Kimbrel look like a relative bargain by comparison.
Kimbrel still posted one of the top strikeout rates in baseball and remains dominant in the comfort zone of a save situation, where he converted 31 of 33 opportunities.
Contending teams always want the security blanket of a “proven closer” to handle the coveted ninth inning role, so any team looking to fill that void would be enticed by Kimbrel given his track record as one of the elite closers in the game.
Age: 31
Contract Status: 6-years, $187 million remaining
Yeah, I know, Price didn’t live up to the sky-high expectations that come with the burden of his record-breaking contract. A 3.99 ERA isn’t what we thought we were getting, but keep in mind he’s only a year removed from leading the league in that category and he still tossed more innings than any pitcher in the majors while striking out nearly a batter per inning.
Say what you want about his postseason track record, but it didn’t stop suitors from lining up when he hit free agency a year ago. His value hasn’t taken much of a hit since, considering that he bounced back from a rocky start to the season to look like the pitcher we expected him to be in the second half. If the Red Sox were to make him available there would be plenty of interest, especially if Boston were willing to eat a portion of the contract.
Price also has an opt-out clause after the 2018 season, so a team banking on him to rebound from his down season may expect him to exercise that clause. If they look at it as a 2-year, $60 million deal then there’s far less risk involved in trading for him.
Now that he’s adjusted to a year in Boston, expect Price to return to form in 2017. Returning to the elite crop of starters will push his trade value further up the list no matter how much money he’s making.
Age: 24
Contract Status: Arbitration Eligible 2019, Free Agency 2022
You get the feeling that Swihart should be higher on this list. After all, the Red Sox once scoffed at parting with the top catching prospect in a deal that could have landed them Cole Hamels a couple of years ago. Since then Swihart has lost some of the luster to his value, coming off of an ankle injury that ended a season in which the organization openly questioned his ability to remain at the catcher position.
Swihart certainly has more value as a catcher, which is why he’s playing the position in winter ball and the Red Sox intend to enter camp at least pretending that Swihart is competing for the backup catcher spot.
If he develops into even a passable defensive backstop, the switch-hitter has the potential at the plate to make him an All-Star caliber catcher. His offensive production looks less impressive compared to his peers at other positions, but Swihart is going to hit no matter where he plays.
It’s unclear what Swihart’s role is with the Red Sox entering 2017. He could move back to catcher if Sandy Leon or Christian Vazquez were to falter or be sidelined by injury. He’s proven capable of handling left field, but would only be a backup option there. Perhaps he can DH if the Red Sox don’t splurge on a flashy free agent signing.
Unless a path is cleared for Swihart to receive regular playing time, he may have more value to another team then he’ll have here, making him a prime trade candidate.
Age: 33
Contract Status: 5 years, $71 million remaining
Pedroia bounced back from a couple of injury hampered seasons to prove he’s still among the game’s top second basemen. He pushed his batting average back over the .300 mark and posted his highest OPS since 2011.
He also remains one of the premier defensive second basemen in the game, as the four-time Gold Glove winner finished second for the award this year.
Pedroia’s age would be a concern for teams interested in trading for him, but he should still have at least a few good seasons left in him and his salary declines steadily over the last three years of the deal to help offset his eroding skills as he gets older.
With David Ortiz now retired, Pedroia is the longest tenured member of the Red Sox. He provides invaluable leadership, sets a great example for the young players with his work ethic and he’s a savvy veteran that routinely makes the right decisions.
As perhaps the most recognizable name left on the roster among casual fans, Pedroia may have more value to the Red Sox than he would to other franchises. It’s hard to imagine him finishing out his career anywhere other than Boston, so if another team dared to inquire about the Laser Show’s availability the asking price would likely be more than what he’s actually worth at this stage of his career.
Jackie Bradley, Jr.
Age: 26
Contract Status: 1st year Arbitration Eligible, Free Agency 2021
Bradley will get a bit of a boost in salary from the near minimum amount he has made the past few years, but he’ll be well worth the price coming off his first All-Star campaign.
His trade value has never been higher now that he’s shown that he’s capable of contributing at the plate. A second half slump took some of the shine off his overall numbers, but he still finished the year inside the top 20 in the league with an .835 OPS and was 16th among position players with 5.3 WAR.
Even if his bat regresses a bit, Bradley still provides tremendous value as an elite center fielder. While his previous track record in the big leagues may make teams question if this year’s production was for real, there’s a reasonable chance that he can continue to improve as he enters his prime.
The Red Sox could consider trading JBJ if they find another team that is more convinced than they are that his offensive outburst wasn’t a mirage. His name has already been linked to stud pitchers like Chris Sale, suggesting that Bradley’s breakout year has put him in position to potentially headline a package for an ace starter.
Age: 27
Contract Status: 3 years, $62.75 million remaining
A year ago Porcello’s contract appeared to be an unmovable albatross, but now that the Comeback Player of the Year has added a Cy Young trophy to his mantle he suddenly looks like a bargain. Many questioned Ben Cherington’s decision to lock up Porcello with an extension that paid him over $20 million annually before he ever proved himself worthy of such a lucrative contract, but the former Red Sox GM’s foresight is now paying off.
Porcello set career highs with 22 wins, a 3.16 ERA, 223 innings, 189 strikeouts and a major league leading 5.91 strikeout-to-walk ratio. If he were to hit free agency now he’d be looking at offers approaching Price’s territory, yet the Red Sox have him locked up for three more years at significantly less.
Entering the prime of his career on a reasonable contract with the additional validation of the Cy Young hardware, Porcello would be among the most coveted starting pitchers on the market if he were to be made available.
Age: 22
Contract Status: Arbitration Eligible 2020, Free Agency 2023
The former college Player of the Year made an immediate impact when he arrived in Boston this season, hitting .295 with an .835 OPS over 105 at-bats.
Benintendi showed the ability to drive the ball into the gap by tallying 11 doubles and a triple in limited time at the big league level. Eventually those extra-base hits will translate into more home runs as he develops, so he projects as a player that can hit for a high average with modest power. While he only swiped one base during his time with the Red Sox, he has the speed to be a threat on the base paths, as he showed throughout his minor league career.
While the Red Sox have used Benintendi in left field, he’s a natural center fielder that could handle the position for another team that didn’t already have an elite defender patrolling the middle of the outfield.
The No. 5 prospect according to MLB.com has a tremendous ceiling, so any team the Red Sox approach about acquiring a star player is bound to ask if Benintendi is on the table.
Age: 21
Contract Status: Arbitration Eligible 2020, Free Agecny 2023
The Cuban import’s major league debut wasn’t as smooth as Benintendi’s, but that was to be expected given that the competition he faced in his homeland wasn’t what Benintendi was exposed to in college.
Benintendi may have surpassed him in the eyes of some scouts, but the majority still rank Moncada a tick higher and he remains the No. 1 overall prospect according to MLB.com. Benintendi can provide a more immediate impact, but Moncada has the higher upside long term as a five-tool player oozing with superstar potential.
The Red Sox are shifting Moncada over to third base because his path at his natural position is blocked by Pedroia, but his value may be higher if other teams view him as a second baseman. The versatility to play multiple positions opens the list of potential suitors wider.
Boston’s front office has resisted the urge to cash in their top prospect on the trade market, but if they ever were to entertain the idea of dealing Moncada he would certainly bring back a superstar in return.
The record $31.5 million signing bonus that the Red Sox handed Moncada has made him a rich young man, but that’s of no concern to any team trading for him. While the bonus could be spread across up to three years, the Red Sox are still on the hook for paying the remainder of it even if Moncada is traded. Any team acquiring him now could pay him at or near the league minimum until he hits arbitration.
Age: 24
Contract Status: 1st year Arbitration Eligible, Free Agency 2020
Shortstop isn’t an easy position to fill, as the Red Sox well know from the lengthy list of failed options they cycled through for about a decade following the trade that sent Nomar Garciaparra out of town. The arrival of Bogaerts put a stop to that carousel, so now that they finally have an All-Star caliber shortstop again they won’t be eager to let him go.
Bogaerts has the potential to be a batting champ that annually flirts with the 200 hit mark. He came close in 2015 when he finished as the runner-up for the batting title. His average dipped slightly below the .300 mark this year, but the trade off was a substantial increase in home run power. He also drew nearly twice as many walks, resulting in an increased on-base percentage.
He’s still a bit below average defensively, but he’s shown improvement moving to the ball since he first arrived in the big leagues and he’s about middle of the pack in terms of committing errors. He’ll continue to get better, but if he gets much bigger as he ages he may eventually need to be moved over to third base, which many scouts projected would happen when he was a rising prospect. A move to the hot corner could be a slight hit to his value, but he would still project as a star at the position if his power keeps developing.
Bogaerts is a part of the young core that the Red Sox would like to lock up for the long run. Given that he’s a Scott Boras client, it’s unlikely he’ll agree to sign long-term right now, but there’s no reason to move him unless it becomes clear that they won’t be able to sign him when he gets closer to free agency. That’s still a few years away, so for now he’s not going anywhere.
Mookie Betts
Age: 24
Contract Status: Arbitration Eligible 2018, Free Agency 2021
Rival GMs that place a call to inquire about Betts should be prepared to be met with a hearty laugh, followed by the sound of a dial tone. As a runner-up for the MVP award who still hasn’t reached his arbitration years, Betts is arguably the most valuable asset in baseball.
Betts is coming off of an outstanding season in which he finished second in the league in batting average and runs scored, fourth in extra-base hits and eighth in OPS. He’s the only player in the majors that topped 30 home runs and 25 steals this season. He was fourth in the league with 113 RBI, despite spending the bulk of the season in the lead-off spot. Betts had the most Defensive Runs Saved of any player at any position and he finished second only to Mike Trout with a 9.6 WAR.
He also hasn’t even approached his peak yet.
There is not a single player in baseball that I would trade straight up for Betts. Trout might be marginally better statistically, but he also makes more money. Clayton Kershaw is a heck of a pitcher, but give me the position player that is on the field contributing to victories almost every game.
If a team wants to start packaging multiple young superstars or sell every top prospect in their farm system, then we’ll talk. Nobody is actually untouchable if the offer is sweet enough, but realistically no team is going to part with the type of package that would even get Dombrowski’s attention.
The Red Sox resisted the temptation to part with young players like Betts when they were skyrocketing through the system and their patience has paid off. Now they can reap the rewards of having a cost-controlled superstar during the best years of his career.
Next: Red Sox favorites for Chris Sale?
Betts isn’t going anywhere right now and if they manage to lock him up before he hits free agency then he’ll remain in Boston for a long time.