The controversy over Justin Verlander being left off a pair of Cy Young ballots doesn’t diminish the success of Boston Red Sox ace Rick Porcello.
Not everyone is thrilled about Rick Porcello winning the American League Cy Young Award. Judging by Kate Upton’s Twitter page, one might be convinced that the Boston Red Sox right-hander’s victory over Justin Verlander is a travesty.
Which is absurd. Those that are making a controversy out of Verlander falling short despite receiving the most first-place votes are ignoring how the scoring system works. Voters are tasked with listing only five pitchers on their ballot. The system rewards seven points for first-place votes, four points for second-place, three for third-place, two for fourth and one for fifth.
The system leans heavily toward favoring pitchers earning the most first-place votes. In fact, this year marked the first time that an AL pitcher won the Cy Young without receiving the most first-place votes in what turned out to be the second closest election since ballots permitted more than one pitcher in 1970, according to the Baseball Writers’ Association of America. However, earning the most first-place votes does not ensure victory.
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Porcello outscored Verlander 137 to 132 when accounting for all votes in this scoring system, placing both comfortably ahead of Cory Kluber’s 98 points. In what essentially boiled down to a tight two-man race, much of the criticism over the results points to a pair of writers that inexplicably left Verlander off their ballots.
Look, everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but it’s hard to fathom how a guy that led all AL pitchers with a 6.6 WAR, 253 strikeouts and a 1.00 WHIP, while finishing second in innings pitched and ERA, didn’t make someone’s top five. Those two writers have some explaining to do, but even if both had put Verlander on their ballot it would not have assured victory for the Detroit Tigers ace.
Porcello won by five points, which means that if both of those writers ranked Verlander no higher than fourth then the award would still go to the anchor of the Red Sox pitching staff. It should be noted that both writers, Fred Goodall of the Associated Press and Bill Chastain of MLB.com, put Porcello first on their ballots, with Kluber listed as their next highest starting pitcher.
The wrench in this election was Baltimore Orioles closer Zach Britton. Several writers left him off their ballots, likely because they felt that a reliever that tosses far fewer innings than any of these workhorse aces provides less value – no matter how historically great their numbers were this season. Not everyone will agree with that assessment, but it’s a valid argument. Goodall and Chastain both voted for Britton, so even if they managed to squeeze Verlander on their ballots it would be difficult for them to rate him high enough to change the outcome if they each insisted on putting Britton ahead of him.
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Full disclosure – I didn’t get a vote in the Cy Young race. If I had, I would have put Britton on my ballot, but not in the top three. Verlander would have been, but I would still put Porcello first.
While Verlander being left off of two ballots is a head-scratching outcome, it takes nothing away from Porcello’s accomplishment. Verlander supporters seem baffled that he finished behind Porcello despite having him beat in innings pitched, strikeouts, ERA and WHIP.
Except looking only at those traditional stats ignores other important categories that Porcello edged Verlander in. I’m not talking about his win total either. A sparkling 22-4 record is impressive, but we’re past the days when wins were a primary factor in Cy Young voting.
Dig a little deeper and you’ll find that Porcello led the majors with a 5.9 K/BB ratio and finished ahead of Verlander in Adjusted ERA+ (145 to 136) and FIP (3.40 to 3.48). Just because the casual fan may be less familiar with these stats doesn’t mean voters shouldn’t take them into consideration.
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Porcello is a worthy recipient of the Cy Young. Verlander had an outstanding season as well, but garnering the most first-place votes doesn’t mean he should have won, while being left off of two ballots didn’t necessarily cost him the award. Verlander supporters can be bitter over the results if they want, but this mild controversy shouldn’t overshadow what Porcello accomplished this season for the Red Sox.