Boston Red Sox players that could be expendable in a trade
The Boston Red Sox will make trades since they usually do. Just what players are expendable? Here are a few with why they may or may not go.
The Boston Red Sox are no different than the other 29 accomplices that comprise Major League Baseball in that they have a list of expendable players. By expendable one must add a qualifier as there are certainly different levels, since a Fernando Abad is not considered in the same category as a David Price.
The fact is every single player is expendable for the right offer as I could go all “Godfather” with a “deal he couldn’t refuse,” but it is valid. No one with a hint of sanity would trade Mookie Betts. Never! What if the Angels offered Mike Trout or the Dodgers Clayton Kershaw? Suddenly that changes.
Baseball has a long tradition of the aptly termed “Blockbuster” trade. Rocky Colavito for Harvey Kuenn – a home run champion for a batting champion. You could look at Rogers Hornsby for Frankie Frisch or even the possibility that Ted Williams and Joe DiMaggio also swapped uniforms.
I recently wrote about the possibility of trading a Jackie Bradley. This is pure hot stove where baseball enthusiasts routinely devise trades that are sometimes exotic and other times delusional and – hopefully – occasionally realistic. A trade – a great trade – is when both teams receive value and value that addresses a weakness. Not a who won or who lost, but one where both parties leave content.
The Red Sox expendables come in all forms and I will look at a few who would be of value and not just baseball flotsam. Players that could actually entice another team to make a dealing partnership. I will also rate the possibility of being traded and will judiciously avoid a speculative potential return. Let the hot stove season begin!
The Red Sox had a surprise in 2016 and that was Wright. Wright was a lifeline as the starting staff and bullpen decided to take a few months post-spring training vacation. Wright went deep into games to avoid an incendiary bullpen and was about as competent a pitcher as the American League had.
By the All-Star break, Wright had no time off since he was requested to be part of the AS Team. Wright was also leading the American League in ERA. He had a 10-5 record at the break and talk around the campfire was Wright was a serious candidate for a Cy Young Award.
The rest of the Wright story is well documented, as his ill-advised excursion onto the basepaths resulted in an injury that essentially finished off his season. What should be noted by Wright is a fundamental concern about his ability to perform at Fenway Park.
In 2016 the home/road splits for Wright demonstrated that concern. Wright tossed 79.1 innings at home and another 77.1 innings on the road. The numbers form a stark contrast. Home ERA was 4.54 and the road it dipped to 2.09. FIP saw 4.46 versus a road 3.06 and WHIP went 1.42 to a miserly road figure of 1.06. Batting average against was .265 at Fenway and .198 elsewhere.
The Red Sox rotation improved steadily in the second half when Wright was absent. Wright is also going to be a free agent, but in the next decade. Even arbitration is two seasons away. Being a knuckleball pitcher age is of little relevance for the 31-year-old right-hander.
Wright has a real plus value as shown by his performance and his line item for any payroll budget. The road numbers are especially attractive as is his ability to pinch run (sarcasm meter now off). And Wright is expendable based on the Red Sox second half performance and especially the pitching recovery of Eduardo Rodriguez.
The loss of Wright would have a depth impact on the Red Sox, but the potential return could be exceptional especially if Wright was part of one of the aforementioned blockbuster deals.
Trade Chance: Medium
I was not impressed by Kimbrel in 2016 and you can place me in the disappointed category. Koji Uehara impressed me to a greater extent in 2013 through 2015. Kimbrel certainly had the “Sexy” fastball and strikeout totals that have been his career calling card. He had the second ranked fastball velocity among American League qualified relievers (97.3 MPH).
What made Kimbrel impressive was his curve – when it found the plate. When Kimbrel was on “His game” the combination of his curve and fastball was virtually unhittable. During 2016 that would surface for extended stretches, but also there was a dark downside.
I find walks about the most reprehensible action a pitcher can perform and that is especially true of relievers. Kimbrel was a master of walks providing a plethora of free passes. Just how bad was it? Kimbrel led the AL relievers with the dubious distinction of a BB/9 at 5.09. The plus – of course – was a fourth best K/9 of 14.09.
Kimbrel’s ERA was 3.40 and his FIP 2.92. For those who worship WAR, his fWAR was 1.2. The fact is Kimbrel had some quite notable pitching meltdowns that usually combined a series of walks. I attended one game where he issued four consecutive walks before being mercifully extracted from the contest. What surprised me is his blown save total was only two for the season.
Where Kimbrel survives is that talent mentioned above – unhittable. Kimbrel was hammered about at .151 and that beat out every reliever in the league, including Zach Britton and Andrew Miller.
Why trade him?
Kimbrel has two more seasons under contract so that is a plus. Kimbrel’s talent level is still a real plus despite a career-high ERA. Was it all just mechanical? Will some semblance of order return in a diminished walk total? Maybe or maybe not. I would not take the chance on a potential train wreck occasionally happening.
The replacement parts are available and most notably is Joe Kelly – if you are looking to replace heat with heat. Kelly touches on the occasional 100 MPH and did average 96.7 velocities on his heater in 2016. Kelly has also been the recipient of numerous chances to “prove” himself with mixed results. Will Kelly be like Miller and suddenly find his niche in the bullpen?
Kelly’s return in September was impressive with only three walks and 20 strikeouts in 14 innings pitched. Kelly posted a 0.64 ERA and the batting average against his serves was .180. That, however, could be an illusion as Kelly also had a remarkable last few months in 2015.
The other options also exist either a high profile free agent such as prying away Aroldis Chapman or going to the resign market for 42-year-old Uehara. Chapman is quite a signing long-shot and his BB/9 is nothing special.
Trade Chance: Low
What a difference one year makes. In 2015 Ramirez was joining a list of free agent busts that Boston had through the years. Now he is what everyone expected and more. The power returned with 30 home runs – many that took on legendary status for distance – and the run-producing with a career-high 111 RBI. The move to yet another new position, first base, was positive. Hanley will never be a great glove man, but he was more than passable.
Ramirez also provided some decent role modeling for the younger players now arriving in Boston. Ramirez had somewhat of a surly history with Miami and Los Angeles, but in Boston, there were no issues – even in the nightmare 2015 season. By all accounts Ramirez was a solid baseball citizen.
Ramirez is a solid right-hand bat who will be 33-years old next season. Ramirez is also signed for two more seasons with a vesting option for a third, but he is not cheap at $22 Million a year.
With the departure of David Ortiz, a gaping hole is apparent in the lineup and trading Ramirez would certainly be a folly or would it? The key ingredient is replacement parts. Internally that is limited to a disappointing Travis Shaw or a more valuable elsewhere Brock Holt. To replace Ramirez you would have to look elsewhere.
Elsewhere could be dabbling extensively into the free agent market and that would mean targeting not one, but two potential additions – both right-handed sluggers. Mark Trumbo has played first base in the past along with being primarily a designated hitter in 2016. Trumbo has also seen duty in the outfield, but he is not being paid for his limited defensive skills as the 30-years-old Trumbo led the majors in home runs and that is his calling card.
Edwin Encarnacion is one who dabbles at first and DH. Now 33-years-old Encarnacion is a tower of home run power, especially at Fenway Park. In 2016 Encarnacion tied Ortiz for the league lead in RBI (127) while smashing 42 home runs.
Encarnacion and Trumbo would represent an enormous expenditure, but would solve the DH issue and make a trade of Ramirez possible. In all likelihood, the main target for Boston is the Toronto slugger.
Trade Chance: Negligible
This is the lower end of the expendables spectrum, since Shaw’s value has diminished significantly in 2016. The good news is his potential versatility at playing first, third and even left field and the bad news is the quality of his defense – average at best.
Shaw won the third base job in spring training with an excellent performance while Pablo Sandoval had some nagging injuries and excessive calories. Eventually, the 0-7 Panda had shoulder surgery and was done for the year. Meanwhile, Shaw continued to produce and was hitting close to .300 and then, like the financial markets in 2008, Shaw collapsed – only worse.
The second half Shaw’s average was .194 and for the season his slash line was .242/.306/.421 with 16 home runs and 71 RBI. Shaw answered all those nagging questions as to why a career .261 hitter in the minors was doing so well in the majors. Shaw’s playing time decreased and is potentially his last at-bat as a Red Sox was a fly ball that ended the Cleveland series in the playoffs.
Sandoval will be back and will have to prove himself as a dependable player. The Red Sox certainly have other options and that could even be resigning Aaron Hill – another disappointing addition during the season or Super Prospect Yoan Moncada and slightly less super Rafael Devers are either a year or years away.
The Red Sox always have their ultimate super glue – Brock Holt – to potentially fill in if Sandoval shows up looking like a Sumo champion. They could also keep Shaw around hoping he provides some competition for the job is somehow finds his MIA bat.
The movement of Shaw could be two-fold: A large package in which Shaw is included or a minor transaction of one disappointment for another.
Trade Chance: High
Slashing .294/.356/.446 can actually be considered a disappointment, but that is all based on a second half drop. Is it just a glitch or a precursor to what the future may hold? How bad was it? After the break Bogaerts hit .253, but had 11 of his 21 home runs. Maybe the short stint batting sixth (.375) will help?
Bogaerts went from an All-Star to one who was questionable in the second half. From a potential batting champion to missing out on hitting .300. The deeper metrics also show a comparable drag, but why focus on the drudgery they present? The second half was the Bogaerts of 2014.
Defensively Bogaerts is considered just in the average range as nothing special or exceptionally and certainly no dud. Boagerts range, arm, and instincts will not stand out so the apt term is to say he is “steady” at short. Bogaerts was once projected for third base and that may eventually happen.
Bogaerts is young at 24-years-old and may have that developing power that could suddenly blossom – especially at Fenway Park where he enjoys hitting with a career .311 average compared to .261 on the road. The upside for Bogaerts is still present – especially with his potential power.
Who plays short?
The only free agent of note is the slick fielding Alcides Escobar and the Royals most certainly will exercise their option. The ever present Holt plays a capable shortstop, but is far less proficient with the bat – especially power.
The Red Sox system is dry with only light hitting Deven Marrero capable of handling the defensive side of the position. The reality is the gifted defensive Marrero can’t hit MLB pitching and barely survives at the minor league level.
Marco Hernandez – a versatile player – hit .294 in a brief trial in Boston. Do you trust Hernandez with the job? I don’t. Mauricio Dubon made substantial progress in 2016, but is at least two years away and being a regular is a longshot.
Trade Chance: Almost Zero
OTHER POSSIBILITIES
A switch-hitter with promise who has been stalled by injuries and circumstances. Swihart can catch and can hit – maybe not exceptional, but capable. As a left fielder, he may find a home in Boston dependent upon movement of other players.
Trade Chance: Medium
Vazquez is slowly becoming a defensive specialist. The gifted arm is not matched by a gifted bat and the surprise of Sandy Leon may make Vaz a 50 game player. I suspect he will eventually end up as the regular option in 2017.
Trade Chance: Low
Holt is a valuable piece whenever a replacement part is needed. Not the best of defensive options – especially in the outfield, but a player who can make the smart plays on offense and defense. Injuries impacted 2016, but Holt displayed some power with seven home runs in 290 at-bats. Would be a guaranteed regular on many teams.
Trade Chance: Low
A disappointment who had the pitching jitters at Fenway Park. Might be a one-shot wonder as a starter. Pomeranz is a low-end starter with Boston who is quite capable of pitching himself out of the rotation.
Trade Chance: Low
Next: Is Trading Jackie Bradley a viable option?
Expect the option to be picked up since Buchholz did a reasonable finish to another disappointing season. Starting pitching is valuable and even pitching that had the numbers of Buchholz has some value.
Trade Chance: Low
Sources: Fangraphs