Boston Red Sox: Moving forward for 2017
Time to place the Red Sox angst and crying towels away in some dark place and look forward to 2017.
The state of the Boston Red Sox is in reality on solid ground despite the recent demise at the hands, gloves, and bats of the Cleveland Indians. The games represented a lesson on the value of pitching. Pitching controls the ebb and flow of a game and Cleveland won based on the fact that their arms outperformed ours at the most important of times.
The Red Sox have some holes to patch, but they will use money, prospects and the semi-positive trading acumen of Dave Dombrowski and Mike Hazen. The patchwork will not be accomplished with a tub of spackle from Lowe’s.
The team finished with 93 wins in arguably the most difficult division in baseball. That number jumps to 98 wins if you place any loyalty to Pythagorean concepts. The Red Sox led the majors in offense and the pitching was surprisingly competent in the second half. A nice turnaround by the staff.
The Red Sox are in an envious position compared to the other residents of the American League East. They have had the fortunate influx of youth and that youth was baseball wise beyond their years. You see the results with the All-Star selections of 2017. So – first off – examine the haven of the young – the Red Sox outfield.
Outfield
The Red Sox posted a 14.4 in the ever mystifying fWAR and that was tops in the AL. The numbers are impressive and just start with a .284 batting average – best in AL. The remainder of the more traditional numbers show power with 76 home runs, run production with 284 RBI and even some decent speed with 44 steals.
Considering the fact that left field was in a bit of a flux during the season the end results were still one to demonstrate that the outfield is solid. Chris Young, when healthy, was worth the expenditure and will remain for another season. Don’t forget about Blake Swihart, who impressed until his ankle lost a battle with a wall. Andrew Benintendi will be around for the entire year so the starting triumvirate brings it all –especially defensively.
This is the best defensive outfield I have seen in my many years of suffering or being elated with Boston baseball. Forget Fred Lynn and Dwight Evans. Same with Jackie Jensen and Jim Piersall. Mookie Betts and Jackie Bradley are superior defensive players and Benintendi is far above Ted Williams and Jim Rice with the leather.
Prognostication is this is a position with depth and talent on both offense and defense. They’ll be a shield for pitching with their speed and arms – a highlight a day.
Caution point would be the second half numbers of Bradley. A 60+ point drop in average can be a signal flare. A trade possibility?
Prediction: Benintendi is Rookie of the Year. JBJ gets traded.
Pitching – Starters
The final tally for the starters certainly improved as Boston finished second in fWAR at 13.9. My personal benchmark is walks and the angst they give me. The Red Sox were sixth-best in the American League at 2.76 BB/9. Earned Run Average (ERA) finished third at 4.22 and its metric twin xFIP was 4.29.
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What was a nightmare in April and May slowly took traction on a far more positive trend? David Price – a potential free agent disaster – suddenly found his game and elevated himself to almost ace status. Almost since Rick Porcello claimed that status with a beginning to end performance that should be culminated in a Cy Young Award.
Two great starters do not make a staff, but a number three starter certainly adds talent – especially when that starter is an All-Star. Steven Wright ran (pun intended) into an injury that placed his season on virtual hold for the final two months.
Eduardo Rodriguez returned from Pawtucket and impressed showing all the promise that he displayed in 2015. Expect the 24-year-old lefty to keep on that trajectory, E-Rod is joined by mystery man Clay Buchholz. Either one of the best or a disaster.
The question mark is Drew Pomeranz. Is Pomeranz a budding star or just another trading failure? Pomeranz made 13 starts for Boston with some mixed results with a 3-5 record and 4.59 ERA. Fenway Park was a pitching debacle for the 27-year-old lefty with no wins and a 6.43 ERA.
The reserves are thin for the Red Sox with a walk an inning Henry Owens the only reserve with reasonable MLB experience. Expect the Red Sox to go into the free agent market, but not for any quality, but for the flotsam that is available for the hopes that something may stick.
Collectively the staff is quite capable of getting the team to the playoffs, but what happens at that point is what we so horribly witnessed against Cleveland.
Worry Beads: Is Wright going to be 100%? Which Buchholz will surface? Is Pomeranz a dud?
Prediction: Rodriguez wins 17 games.
Bullpen
What a ride the bullpen was all season before an outstanding September. Overall the AL rankings had Boston at a respectable sixth place fWAR of 4.8. That strong finish puts some hope in the air for the spring.
Sifting through the numbers what takes a nip out of my jugular is next to last is BB/9 of 3.69. No imagination when you saw the proliferation of walks issued especially by Craig Kimbrel. The rest of the statistics were ordinary – WHIP (1.28), xFIP (4.04) and LOB% (75.2) were in the middle of the pack.
The big hurt was not Frank Thomas, but the injury to Carson Smith. The bullpen never really stabilized until Brad Ziegler was brought in to help the situation. Koji Uehara and another free agent to be Junichi Tazawa were questionable – especially Taz.
Heath Hembree and Matt Barnes have a similar approach with both using an above average fastball, but often having below average results. Fernando Abad performed as expected against lefties, but the occasional right-hand hitter enjoyed feasting off the disappointing Abad.
Robby Scott was pulled off the scrap heap and impressed at Pawtucket and a short stint with Boston. Scott and fellow lefty Robbie Ross could both end up as the lefties of note in the bullpen. The possible glue to hold it together in 2017 could be flame thrower Joe Kelly and his 100MPH heater.
The rest of the bullpen is rather sparse with neither Roenis Elias, nor Noe Ramirez impressing enough to make Red Sox Nation jump with joy when they start warming up.
Closer Kimbrel can go stretches of 10-12 games and be invincible only to have control issues surface and self-destruction. Still – Kimbrel was dominant enough to put a search for a replacement on hold.
The Red Sox will certainly go into the pitching market for additional arms. Ziegler, Uehara, and Tazawa are free agents and all three, or two, or one or none could return. The other key is Smith, who may be back by June. A back in form Smith could certainly provide some late-inning stability.
The success of this bullpen depends upon the starters. Wright, Porcello, and Price have all shown the ability to go deep into games and that certainly lessens the exposure of a funky collection of bullpen arms. The other possible upswing is Kelly, Hembree and Barnes are all capable of multiple innings. The only issue is the quality of those innings.
Warning sign: Walks…walks and still more walks. BB/9 needs to get to 3.0
Prediction: Koji will be back. Kelly will shine.
Infield
The obvious weak point in the infield alignment is third base. The Red Sox finished at the bottom of the American League offensive charts with an fWAR of a miserly 0.8. With 19 home runs and 89 RBI from the collective at the third sack, the power outage was noticeable.
Boston attempted to plug the gap after Travis Shaw’s game vanished at the end of May and went into a parallel universe populated by non-hitters. The Red Sox brought in just about anyone to get a jolt from that position and nothing really worked.
The rest of the infield is about as solid as it gets with bat and glove as even Hanley Ramirez showed some nifty glove work. Hanley’s real contribution is hitting and 30 home runs and a career-high 111 RBI give testimony to that. Toss in Dustin Pedroia being the best defender in the league at second and his 200+ hits says clearly that Pedey is back.
Xander Bogaerts put on the power, upping his home runs from seven in 2015 to 21 in 2016. Bogaerts made the All-Star team and was well over .300 when he went into a prolonged slippage. Will that be continued? I think not.
So what about third?
The 300-pound gorilla or third baseman is returning. If Pablo Sandoval has lost weight and refined his game now that he is past 30-years-old that very issue of who’s on third would be solved. The baseball jury will certainly be out on that one until late spring.
The minor league system is loaded with baseball’s top prospect – Yoan Moncada – in the wings and possibly a season away. Another prized prospect is Rafael Devers, who is usually mentioned by opposing GM’s when trades are mentioned. Sam Travis missed most of 2016 and will be watched at Pawtucket. Travis is a line drive machine who could play first or DH in the near future.
A watchful eye: Pedroia’s age and durability. Was 2016 a mirage? Ditto for Ramirez. Was 2016 the real Hanley?
Prediction: Sandoval returns to .290.
Catcher and Designated Hitter
You think the Grand Canyon is a gaping hole? Well, binky, that is nothing compared to the hole left in the batting order by the departure of David Ortiz. The Red Sox have just watched 127 RBI and 38 home runs go into a well-deserved retirement and that kind of statistics can be irreplaceable or maybe not?
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A fortuitous turn of baseball events has offered up three potential replacements for the departed Papi. And in each case, the replacement would weaken a division opponent. Now – about those 127 RBI? That happened to be the total by Edwin Encarnacion managed for the Toronto Blue Jays. Encarnacion was mentioned by Ortiz as a possible replacement and as a free agent, the welcome mat and bat are out.
Jose Bautista is also on the Jays roster and also a free agent. Like fellow right-hand slugger, Encarnacion old Joey Bats simply adores Fenway Park. Bautista is a free agent and a year older than Encarnacion, but, like Edwin, can play in the field with minimal embarrassment. However, that field is right and Mr. Betts occupies that position.
Lastly is the major league’s leading home run hitter – Mark Trumbo of the Orioles and another right-hand power bat. Trumbo certainly does not have the credentials of the Blue Jay pair, but may be a cheaper and shorter term option.
Sandy Leon is the incumbent catcher. Leon had a hitting streak that was noteworthy where hits were rattling over the various ballparks. An above average receiver who suddenly hit and hit with power. Will it last?
September was not kind to Leon as his average plummeted thanks to a more Leon like .213. That certainly is of concerns as his backup – Christian Vazquez – also uses the stick for decorative purposes. The fact is, both are gifted defensively so the Sox can carry a bit of offensive dead weight if Leon goes back to his old ways.
Both Ryan Hanigan and Bryan Holaday will have to find employment elsewhere.
Danger afoot: The backstops can’t hit.
Prediction: Welcome to Boston – Mr. Encarnacion! Vaz starts by June.
The Bench
Marco Hernandez can hit and will certainly have a strong influence on the 2017 roster – especially if Holt is traded. Swihart could be the bat off the bench and can play left and provide additional caching support. Swihart may see some first base time, can switch hit and could be a long – very long – shot for third base.
Josh Rutledge plays the smart game one would expect of a borderline MLB player. Rutledge has his positive moments hitting and can play all infield positions. Holt remains Mr. Versatility and may be more valuable playing 120+ games somewhere than taking up bench space.
Young showed he can be a valuable asset, especially against left-handed pitching. Young is a capable defender who still has some decent speed. A dependable power option. Shaw may see duty in left, third and first. Shaw’s hitting slumped and his glove work is average, if he’s not traded or playing third Shaw could be the significant bat off the bench.
Rusney Castillo has morphed into Allen Craig, but you just don’t toss away that kind of money without another attempt at resuscitating his career.
The Red Sox will add a player or two in the spring just as every team does. Last season a few surfaced with no real impact, but Leon was once in that category and now he starts.
Yellow tape zone: Depletion by injuries reduces bench effectiveness.
Prediction: Hernandez will stay.
Sources: Fangraphs