2016 MLB Postseason: Boston Red Sox ALDS Game 3 predictions
By Sean Penney
Kimbrel notches the save… barely
If the Red Sox are going to win Game 3 it won’t be without a fair amount of drama.
Boston’s offense will have given the team a fairly comfortable three-run lead heading into the ninth inning, where Craig Kimbrel will be tasked with locking down the save. Boston’s closer has only faced one batter in this series, so expect him to be used regardless of the score.
Kimbrel struggled through bouts of wildness down the stretch, issuing nine walks in his last nine innings to close out the regular season. While he did rack up seven saves in September, he also lost three of those final nine appearances and surrendered six earned runs.
The five-time All-Star hasn’t quite lived up to the lights out closer reputation he brought with him when the Red Sox acquired him from the San Diego Padres last winter. His 3.40 ERA may be solid by the standards of most pitchers, but it’s nearly a full run higher than the career-high he set a year ago and almost double his career average.
While his postseason resume is limited to a mere seven innings of work, Kimbrel has been brilliant in that small sample. He owns a 1.29 ERA, 0.57 WHIP and 11 strikeouts in those seven appearances, but aside from the one batter he faced in Game 2, Kimbrel hasn’t pitched in the postseason since 2013. He’s not quite as dominant as he was back then, so can we trust him to lock down the save with the season on the line?
Next: If Buchholz prevails, Porcello gets rematch
He will, but he won’t make it easy. We can probably assume based on his recent track record that he’ll walk a batter. Just to make things interesting, let’s predict that he’ll also give up a frustrating bloop base hit, bringing the tying run to the plate with two outs. After working the count full, Kimbrel will unleash a blazing fastball high and outside that would have been ball four to load the bases had the batter not swung through it. Kimbrel gets the strikeout to end the game, keeping the Red Sox alive for at least one more day.