Are Boston Red Sox better off settling for second place in the American League?

Securing home-field advantage throughout the postseason has its benefits, but should the Boston Red Sox target the better first-round match-up?

The magic number for the Boston Red Sox sits at one with five games remaining, making the chances of locking up the division title as assured as the sun rising tomorrow. The only drama facing this team in the final week of the regular season will be the battle for the American League’s top record, which would give that team home-field advantage throughout the postseason.

The question is, do the Red Sox really want the top spot?

First place is certainly attainable, as the Red Sox enter the day a mere half game behind the Texas Rangers for the league’s best record and a game ahead of the Cleveland Indians. Those teams have already clinched their respective divisions, so with Boston soon to follow, the top seed in the AL will almost certainly come down to these three teams.

It seems almost blasphemous to suggest that settling for second place would be more desirable than finishing on top. Why wouldn’t we want home-field advantage? Last week I outlined the benefits of securing home-field and explored the three-team race for that American League’s top spot. BoSox Injection’s Rick McNair went as far as to explain why the Red Sox should be considered a lock for the league’s best record. What factors would convince us to want the Red Sox to steer away from that goal?

It boils down to the match-ups.

The top team not only has home-field advantage, but also gets the opportunity to face the winner of the Wild Card game. This not only allows them to enter the ALDS with more rest than their opponent, but the Wild Card winner likely had to burn through their best starter in order to get to the next round. That almost certainly prevents them from using their ace twice in a five game series.

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That’s a significant advantage for the league’s top team, so clearly the Red Sox want to be in that spot, right? Not so fast. While this may be the case most years, this season may be an exception due to the current state of one of the other division winners. We can all agree that we want no part of finishing third, which would start Boston on the road in the ALDS. However, there is an appealing scenario in which the Red Sox could finish second and open the postseason at home against an ailing Indians squad.

Terry Francona‘s team has had a successful season, but they are limping to the finish line with a rotation that is in shambles. Danny Salazar has been ruled out for the regular season with a forearm injury, putting his availability for the ALDS in doubt. If he returns at all it may be in a bullpen role. Carlos Carrasco left his start on September 17 after being hit by a line drive in the first inning. He was later diagnosed with a non-displaced fracture of the fifth metacarpal on his throwing hand and has been ruled out for the season. If that wasn’t bad enough, Cy Young candidate Corey Kluber left his last start with a quad strain expected to sideline him for at least 7-10 days. He could return for the start of the ALDS, assuming he doesn’t suffer a setback, but how effective he will be returning from an injury has to be a concern for Cleveland.

Another reason that the Red Sox would welcome this match-up is Cleveland’s road record. They have the best record in the league at home, but are a mediocre 38-38 on the road. The Indians have scored the second most runs in the league this season based on their success at Progressive Field, but rank a dismal 14th in the league in runs scored on the road with a .687 OPS that sits dead last. You can easily envision Boston taking the first two games at Fenway, pushing the Indians to the brink of elimination as we head to Cleveland, where they would attempt to dig themselves out of a deep hole with a depleted rotation.

The Wild Card Game is likely to pit the Toronto Blue Jays against either the Baltimore Orioles or Detroit Tigers.

The Jays and O’s, both of whom currently hold the Wild Card spots, are division rivals that the Red Sox have plenty of familiarity with. Boston is 11-8 against Baltimore this season, but had a losing record against them prior to a crushing four-game sweep the last time they met. They are 7-8 against Toronto, with three games left to play at Fenway to wrap up the regular season. Detroit sits a game behind Baltimore, giving them the longest odds of the trio to get to the ALDS, but would potentially present the biggest threat. The Red Sox are 2-5 against the Tigers this season, including a series where Boston was swept at Fenway.

Any of those teams would present a bigger challenge than a banged up Cleveland team would, which means Boston’s chances of advancing to the ALCS are actually better if they finish second in the American League.

Of course, getting to the ALCS is not the goal. It’s World Series or bust for a Red Sox team looking to send David Ortiz off into retirement with one last memorable October run. Home-field advantage in the World Series is already locked in thanks to the AL’s victory in this year’s All-Star Game, but if the Red Sox finish second then they would only have home-field in the ALCS if the Wild Card team upsets Texas in the previous round.

If we expect a top-seeded Texas team to make it to the league championship round, how much would sacrificing home-field against them matter to the Red Sox? Boston has by far the league’s best road record at 46-33, so they certainly won’t fear going on the road. The concern is how well Texas plays at home. The Red Sox are 3-3 against the Rangers this season, but dropped two out of three at Globe Life Park.

So the chances of advancing to the World Series are better if the Red Sox have home-field advantage over Texas, right? Probably, although are we certain that the Rangers are a bigger threat than the team coming out of the Wild Card? That all depends on if you think the Rangers record is more the result of luck than talent.

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Despite owning the best record in the league, Texas has an unimpressive +8 run differential – easily the lowest of any playoff team in the majors. This anomaly is fueled by setting a new historical standard for winning one-run games, where they are 36-11 this season. The “Pythagorean Win Loss” devised by sabermetrics pioneer Bill James calculates a team’s expected record based on run differential. The formula is considered by many to be a stronger indicator of team strength than their actual record by aiming to eliminate the random variance of luck that can decide close games. Based on this theory, the Rangers have played at a level closer to that of a .500 team, while the Red Sox, with their league best +190 run differential, have actually been better than their record indicates.

Many old school fans scoff at the “Stat Geeks” and their numbers, holding firm to the belief that the best team is the one with the most wins. There are valid points on both sides of the argument, but there is no denying that the Rangers have benefited from converting wins in one-run games at an unsustainable rate. Typically teams with strong track records in close games have elite bullpens, but Texas ranks next to last in the league with a 4.47 ERA and .263 batting average against from their relievers.

The trend of winning close games has worked out well for the Rangers so far, but that doesn’t mean we can expect it to carry over to October. That’s what we call the gambler’s fallacy – just because the Roulette wheel lands on Black eight out of ten times doesn’t mean you are more likely to win if you continue betting on it. The odds remain the same with each spin.

Is there a legitimate reason for the Ranger’s dominance in one-run games? It’s certainly not their bullpen. You can point to intangibles and the “clutch factor” as a reason, but it’s not as if the Red Sox lineup doesn’t have those types of players too.