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Are Boston Red Sox better off settling for second place in the American League?

By Sean Penney

Aug 14, 2016; Boston, MA, USA; Boston Red Sox right fielder Mookie Betts (50) smiles after he was doused with Powerade by shortstop Xander Bogaerts (2) after the Boston Red Sox 16-2 win over the Arizona Diamondbacks at Fenway Park. Betts had three home runs in the win. Mandatory Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports
Aug 14, 2016; Boston, MA, USA; Boston Red Sox right fielder Mookie Betts (50) smiles after he was doused with Powerade by shortstop Xander Bogaerts (2) after the Boston Red Sox 16-2 win over the Arizona Diamondbacks at Fenway Park. Betts had three home runs in the win. Mandatory Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports /
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Sep 24, 2016; Toronto, Ontario, CAN: Toronto Blue Jays right fielder Jose Bautista (19) bumps forearms with third baseman Josh Donaldson (20) after scoring them both and first baseman Edwin Encarnacion (10) with a three run home run against New York Yankees in the eighth inning at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sport
Sep 24, 2016; Toronto, Ontario, CAN: Toronto Blue Jays right fielder Jose Bautista (19) bumps forearms with third baseman Josh Donaldson (20) after scoring them both and first baseman Edwin Encarnacion (10) with a three run home run against New York Yankees in the eighth inning at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sport /

The Wild Card Game is likely to pit the Toronto Blue Jays against either the Baltimore Orioles or Detroit Tigers.

The Jays and O’s, both of whom currently hold the Wild Card spots, are division rivals that the Red Sox have plenty of familiarity with. Boston is 11-8 against Baltimore this season, but had a losing record against them prior to a crushing four-game sweep the last time they met. They are 7-8 against Toronto, with three games left to play at Fenway to wrap up the regular season. Detroit sits a game behind Baltimore, giving them the longest odds of the trio to get to the ALDS, but would potentially present the biggest threat. The Red Sox are 2-5 against the Tigers this season, including a series where Boston was swept at Fenway.

Any of those teams would present a bigger challenge than a banged up Cleveland team would, which means Boston’s chances of advancing to the ALCS are actually better if they finish second in the American League.

Of course, getting to the ALCS is not the goal. It’s World Series or bust for a Red Sox team looking to send David Ortiz off into retirement with one last memorable October run. Home-field advantage in the World Series is already locked in thanks to the AL’s victory in this year’s All-Star Game, but if the Red Sox finish second then they would only have home-field in the ALCS if the Wild Card team upsets Texas in the previous round.

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