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Are Boston Red Sox better off settling for second place in the American League?

By Sean Penney

Aug 14, 2016; Boston, MA, USA; Boston Red Sox right fielder Mookie Betts (50) smiles after he was doused with Powerade by shortstop Xander Bogaerts (2) after the Boston Red Sox 16-2 win over the Arizona Diamondbacks at Fenway Park. Betts had three home runs in the win. Mandatory Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports
Aug 14, 2016; Boston, MA, USA; Boston Red Sox right fielder Mookie Betts (50) smiles after he was doused with Powerade by shortstop Xander Bogaerts (2) after the Boston Red Sox 16-2 win over the Arizona Diamondbacks at Fenway Park. Betts had three home runs in the win. Mandatory Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports /
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Sep 14, 2016; Chicago, IL, USA; Cleveland Indians manager Terry Francona (17) sits in the dugout prior to the game against the Chicago White Sox at U.S. Cellular Field. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 14, 2016; Chicago, IL, USA; Cleveland Indians manager Terry Francona (17) sits in the dugout prior to the game against the Chicago White Sox at U.S. Cellular Field. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports /

It boils down to the match-ups.

The top team not only has home-field advantage, but also gets the opportunity to face the winner of the Wild Card game. This not only allows them to enter the ALDS with more rest than their opponent, but the Wild Card winner likely had to burn through their best starter in order to get to the next round. That almost certainly prevents them from using their ace twice in a five game series.

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That’s a significant advantage for the league’s top team, so clearly the Red Sox want to be in that spot, right? Not so fast. While this may be the case most years, this season may be an exception due to the current state of one of the other division winners. We can all agree that we want no part of finishing third, which would start Boston on the road in the ALDS. However, there is an appealing scenario in which the Red Sox could finish second and open the postseason at home against an ailing Indians squad.

Terry Francona‘s team has had a successful season, but they are limping to the finish line with a rotation that is in shambles. Danny Salazar has been ruled out for the regular season with a forearm injury, putting his availability for the ALDS in doubt. If he returns at all it may be in a bullpen role. Carlos Carrasco left his start on September 17 after being hit by a line drive in the first inning. He was later diagnosed with a non-displaced fracture of the fifth metacarpal on his throwing hand and has been ruled out for the season. If that wasn’t bad enough, Cy Young candidate Corey Kluber left his last start with a quad strain expected to sideline him for at least 7-10 days. He could return for the start of the ALDS, assuming he doesn’t suffer a setback, but how effective he will be returning from an injury has to be a concern for Cleveland.

Another reason that the Red Sox would welcome this match-up is Cleveland’s road record. They have the best record in the league at home, but are a mediocre 38-38 on the road. The Indians have scored the second most runs in the league this season based on their success at Progressive Field, but rank a dismal 14th in the league in runs scored on the road with a .687 OPS that sits dead last. You can easily envision Boston taking the first two games at Fenway, pushing the Indians to the brink of elimination as we head to Cleveland, where they would attempt to dig themselves out of a deep hole with a depleted rotation.

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