Boston Red Sox have postseason home-field advantage in their sights
The Red Sox enter the day with a record of 88-64, placing them half a game behind the Cleveland Indians and 1.5 games behind a Texas Rangers team holding the best record in the American League. Each of those teams have essentially wrapped up their respective divisions, with a lead greater than the one Boston holds in the East. There no longer appears to be much drama in any of the division races, but these three teams will spend the next week and half jockeying for position in the league standings.
| Team | Wins | Losses | PCT | GB |
| Texas Rangers | 90 | 63 | 0.588 | – |
| Cleveland Indians | 88 | 63 | 0.583 | 1 |
| Boston Red Sox | 88 | 64 | 0.579 | 1.5 |
Clinching home-field advantage throughout the postseason (including the World Series, thanks to the AL’s victory at this year’s All-Star Game) could prove to be a significant factor. The Red Sox own the league’s best road record at 42-32, so starting their playoff path on the road won’t phase them. However, it could be a significant factor for their opponents.
Let’s start with Cleveland. The Indians have a league-high 51 wins at home, but have been a mediocre 37-37 on the road. This team already faces an uphill battle in the postseason with Carlos Carrasco unlikely to return from a broken hand and Danny Salazar‘s status still questionable as he attempts to work his way back from a forearm injury. With a pair of gaping holes in their rotation, Cleveland will need to rely on a lineup that trails only Boston in runs scored. This becomes a problem if the Indians don’t have home-field advantage. They rake at home, scoring the second most runs in the league, but have scored the league’s second fewest runs on the road this season.
Texas is right behind Cleveland for the top home record in the league, but are only slightly above .500 on the road at 40-38. The Rangers suffer from similar offensive woes away from Globe Life Park, although not to quite the extreme. They have league’s third ranked offense, but are only 11th in runs scored and OPS on the road.
Now that we’ve established the benefits of home-field advantage, let’s look at the Red Sox chances of leaping over the competition to obtain it.
Boston may currently be trailing among this trio, but they also have the most momentum. The Red Sox have won seven straight and eight of their last ten. Meanwhile, Cleveland has gone 6-4 over their last ten games and the Rangers are floundering at 5-5.
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While their record to this point hasn’t quite matched the teams ahead of them, Boston’s league-leading +186 run differential suggests that they are a better team than their record indicates. Only the Chicago Cubs (+239) have a better run differential in the majors. Cleveland is a distant second in the AL at +105, while Texas defies logic with a league best record despite a run differential of only +9.
The Rangers own a staggering 36-11 record in one-run games, giving them a .766 winning percentage that would top the 2012 Baltimore Orioles (29-9, .763) for the major league record. Somehow they have managed to accomplish this in spite of a bullpen that ranks dead last in the league with a 4.63 ERA. Give them credit for some clutch hitting in these close games, but these results still scream the word fluke.
As for Cleveland, they will be hard-pressed to match their current pace with the likes of Mike Clevinger (4.76 ERA) and Cody Anderson (6.24 ERA) filling in for their injured starters down the stretch. A rotation that looked to be the best in the league to start the season will now have to rely heavily on the arm of Corey Kluber to survive in October.
Strength of schedule will play a factor in how this race is decided and this is where the Red Sox may be at a disadvantage.
Boston wraps up their series in Baltimore Thursday night against an O’s team clinging to the second Wild Card spot. Even with the Red Sox sending ace David Price to the mound, a desperate Orioles team can still be dangerous. That’s followed by the only reprieve left on their schedule, with three games against the cellar-dweller Tampa Bay Rays. It’s a lost season for the Rays, but they have played the Red Sox tough this season and can’t be taken lightly. Boston is 9-7 against the Rays this season and 3-4 at Tropicana Field.
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The road trip finishes up in New York against a Yankees team fighting to climb into a Wild Card spot. After the Red Sox ripped their hearts out with a four-game sweep at Fenway, you know the Yankees will be out for revenge. That leaves us with the Red Sox returning home to take on the Blue Jays in the final series of the season. Even if Boston has managed to clinch the division by that point, Toronto may very well be fighting for home-field in the Wild Card round, so they certainly won’t lay down.
Cleveland’s path isn’t much easier, with seven of their remaining eleven games on the road. They will get to beat up on the Chicago White Sox at home this weekend, but then have to travel to Detroit, where they have been swept by the Tigers twice already this season. The Indians finish up in Kansas City against a Royals team with the fifth most home wins in the league. This matchup will be even more difficult if the defending champions are still alive in the playoff hunt.
The Rangers have the easiest remaining schedule of the three division leaders, with six of their remaining nine games at home. Not only do they have the most home games remaining, but Texas also won’t face a team with a winning record the rest of the way. Their last road trip takes them to Oakland this weekend to face the last place A’s, before they return home to host the Milwaukee Brewers and Rays.
Their current spot at the top, combined with their cupcake schedule, makes the Rangers the favorite to finish with the American League’s best record.
Finishing second wouldn’t necessarily be a total loss for the Red Sox, as it would set them up with home-field advantage in the ALDS against Cleveland’s battered rotation. That may actually be a more enviable position than facing the winner of the Wild Card game, even when factoring in the likelihood that the Wild card winner burns through their top starter to get to that point. What the Red Sox want to avoid is finishing third, as surrendering that home-field edge would help a team like Cleveland compensate for their rotation issues.
While the first-round matchup is important, the ultimate goal is the World Series, and to get there they still need to win the ALCS. If that ends up being against the Rangers, the task becomes significantly more difficult without home-field advantage.
This makes the final ten games of vital importance. It’s not only the teams in their own division that the Red Sox need to fend off, but the other top teams in the AL battling for the league’s best record.
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If they want the season to end with a duck boat parade then the Red Sox will need every advantage they can get and there may not be a bigger advantage within their reach than ensuring the majority of their playoff games are held at Fenway.