The Boston Red Sox have a lethal lineup capable of hitting in almost any scenario, except when the bases are loaded.
The Boston Red Sox have the best lineup in baseball by almost any measure imaginable. They lead the majors with 659 runs scored and have hit a collective .285/.351/.468, putting them at the top of each of those categories as well.
This team has put a ton of runners on base this season and has proven capable of driving them in as well as anyone, with one exception – when the bases are loaded.
We saw a prime example of how costly this issue can be in Thursday afternoon’s loss to the Detroit Tigers. Boston had starter Matt Boyd on the ropes early, loading the bases in the third inning, but they let him off the hook when Jackie Bradley flied out to end the inning. The Red Sox had an opportunity to break the game wide open, but remained scoreless at the end of the inning. They would eventually take the lead, only for the bullpen to suffer another meltdown that cost them the game. Had the Red Sox scored a run or two back in the third to give the bullpen a more comfortable lead to work with, perhaps the outcome would have been different.
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Sadly, scenarios like this are becoming all too familiar this season.
A Red Sox hitter has stepped to the plate with the bases loaded 113 times so far this season, the third most opportunities in the American League. In those situations they rank next to last in the league with a .217 average and .256 OBP.
These result are simply baffling from a team that has been elite in every other situation. They can hit with the bases empty and are even better when there is one or two runners on. They do just fine when there are runners at both second and third, but if the opposing team were to walk the next batter to load ’em up, the Red Sox suddenly turn into the Tampa Bay Rays at the plate.
| Situation | At-Bats | AVG | League Rank |
| Bases Empty | 2306 | .275 | 1st |
| Runners On | 1914 | .297 | 1st |
| Runners on, 2 Outs | 791 | .278 | 1st |
| Scoring Position | 1095 | .286 | 1st |
| Scoring Position, 2 Outs | 509 | .261 | 1st |
| Bases Loaded | 106 | .217 | 14th |
It’s not that the Red Sox can’t hit in the clutch either. They remain at the top of the list in terms of batting average with two outs, both when there are runners on and with runners in scoring position.
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This lineup is filled with hitters that perform with runners in scoring position. Sandy Leon (.452) and Andrew Benintendi (.385) are both top-10 in the league among hitters with at least 10 at-bats with runners in scoring position this season. Not enough of a sample size? Mookie Betts (.378) and David Ortiz (.353) have been outstanding in these situations. Xander Bogaerts (.297), Hanley Ramirez (.284), Dustin Pedroia (.281) and Travis Shaw (.280) haven’t been too shabby either. That’s almost the entire starting lineup!
Bradley (.252) is the only regular in the lineup that has even remotely struggled with runners in scoring position, while you can point to super utility-man Brock Holt (.258) as another if you still want to consider him a “regular” in the lineup.
The Red Sox have hit four grand slams this season, each by a different player. Only the Baltimore Orioles, Houston Astros and Washington Nationals have hit more in the majors, with each of them tallying five grand slams. Boston’s ranking on that list is in part influenced by the number of plate appearances they have with the bases juiced compared to most teams. If we’re going to credit them for that, we have to be equally critical of their middle of the pack ranking in RBI with the bases loaded. All of the teams that have driven in fewer runs with the bases loaded have also had fewer opportunities in those situations.
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Is there any rhyme or reason to this team’s inability to hit with the bases loaded? Not really. We’re still dealing with a fairly limited sample that can be heavily influenced by bad luck. The Red Sox have a loaded lineup capable of hitting in every other situation, so there’s no reason to believe that their misfortune with the bases loaded will continue to plague them in the long run. If anything, it’s likely to normalize toward the mean.