Revamping the Red Sox Bullpen to match rotation’s growth

An analytical and statistical justification for revamping the Red Sox Bullpen and creating a juggernaut to close out victories.

The Red Sox Achilles’ heel, the supposed feeble link in their foundation that would preclude their participation in the postseason, was allocated to their starting rotation. As the starting rotation appears to have finally figured things out and is performing up to its lofty potential, there endure legitimate trepidations regarding that portion of the pitching staff that does not start games, but performs a similarly important role.

Red Sox fans should be confident in the manner with which the starting rotation has asserted itself over the past 15 days. In fact, since August 1, Red Sox starters possess a record of five wins accompanied by three defeats, while possessing the lowest earned run average in the American League at 2.81.

The rotation has pitched dazzlingly over the last 15 days and has become the strength of the pitching staff. Unfortunately, the bullpen has had its share of hiccups over said period and it has become increasingly clear that certain members of this bullpen have performed so tragically atrocious that their insertion into meaningful games could only be characterized as unfair to the rest of the ball club.

First, upon perusal of the following table, one can see how much better the starting rotation has pitched over the past 15 days:

The percentage of “Quality Starts” has increased prominently, the ERA and FIP values have dropped precipitously, while the Walk Rate has decreased and the Strikeout Rate has increased.

Next: Bullpen Issues

Bullpen Issues

As mentioned previously, the bullpen has had its share of hiccups over the past two weeks, and those hiccups explain our rather pedestrian eight wins in our last fourteen contests, despite the rotation producing nine Quality Starts in that span.

I am not an idealistic fan who anticipates a reliever with the pitching repertoire of Sandy Koufax to exit the bullpen every time a pitching change is requested. Nonetheless, my job is to make an argument and present supporting evidence to strengthen said argument.

As well as our rotation has performed since August 1, our relief corp. has been equally atrocious. The following chart summarizes the Bullpen’s performance over the course of the entire season, while comparing said performance to that exhibited over the past 15 days:

The WHIP has approached comedic levels, while the ERA and FIP values have risen dramatically. Our strikeout rates have increased slightly, but nowhere close to the magnitude necessary to offset a walk rate that is nearly double the league average.

Next: The Fall Guys

The Fall Guys

I hold no personal grudges and merely report the findings of my data-driven research; Fernando Abad and Junichi Tazawa have performed about as poorly as any relievers that I have ever witnessed throughout my entire history of following this great game of baseball.

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One similarity between Abad and Tazawa is their proclivity to allow inherited runners to cross home plate with an alarming frequency. This is, arguably, the greatest sin of any reliever; after all, a reliever is frequently transported into the contest with men on base and assigned the task of preventing or minimizing the damage.

Tazawa and Abad combined have allowed 27 of 53 inherited runners to score. That is entirely unacceptable and places both of them among the worst in Major League Baseball at stranding inherited runners. The two of them combine to allow 51% of all inherited runners to score. It should be noted that this is almost double the league average rate of inherited runners scoring, which is 31%.

Next: Junichi Tazawa

Junichi Tazawa

Tazawa has been a stalwart at the back of our bullpen for many years; however, there arrives a time when a player can no longer perform up to his once superlative capabilities and a reconsideration of one’s proper role is in order. Tazawa has performed poorly all season and it may be time to redefine the nature of his association with respect to the back end of the Red Sox Bullpen.

The chart below indicates just how awfully Tazawa has performed in August:

The major league average for Home Run percentage is 3.0%. Since August 1, Tazawa is allowing the long ball at an unfathomable 13.1%. In that same period, his ERA and FIP have ballooned to astronomical values, while his Walk Rate has nearly tripled and his Strikeout Rate has decreased.

From April to July, he was holding opposing batters to a very respectable .220; however, since August 1, he is allowing opposing batters to hit .316 against him, a mark that should not allow him to pitch in any game situation in which the outcome is in doubt. Lastly, since August 1, his WHIP is 2.50, which begs the question, “How many of the readers have even seen a WHIP in which the first digit was a ‘2’”?

Next: Fernando Abad

Fernando Abad

The other porous link in our bullpen is the newly acquired Fernando Abad. The chart below compares Abad’s performances in Minnesota and Boston:

Relative to his performance in Minnesota, Abad is allowing HRs at nearly quadruple the frequency in Boston. His FIP and ERA values in Boston range from double to triple the values they assumed in Minnesota, he is walking nearly as many batters as he is striking out, and he has allowed 80% of Inherited Runners to score.

Abad’s BAA and his WHIP have increased to Rookie Ball type numbers, and said values cannot be allowed to be exhibited in a major league contest, especially for a team fighting for a postseason berth.

Next: The Solution