Revamping the Red Sox Bullpen to match rotation’s growth

An analytical and statistical justification for revamping the Red Sox Bullpen and creating a juggernaut to close out victories.

The Red Sox Achilles’ heel, the supposed feeble link in their foundation that would preclude their participation in the postseason, was allocated to their starting rotation. As the starting rotation appears to have finally figured things out and is performing up to its lofty potential, there endure legitimate trepidations regarding that portion of the pitching staff that does not start games, but performs a similarly important role.

Red Sox fans should be confident in the manner with which the starting rotation has asserted itself over the past 15 days. In fact, since August 1, Red Sox starters possess a record of five wins accompanied by three defeats, while possessing the lowest earned run average in the American League at 2.81.

The rotation has pitched dazzlingly over the last 15 days and has become the strength of the pitching staff. Unfortunately, the bullpen has had its share of hiccups over said period and it has become increasingly clear that certain members of this bullpen have performed so tragically atrocious that their insertion into meaningful games could only be characterized as unfair to the rest of the ball club.

First, upon perusal of the following table, one can see how much better the starting rotation has pitched over the past 15 days:

The percentage of “Quality Starts” has increased prominently, the ERA and FIP values have dropped precipitously, while the Walk Rate has decreased and the Strikeout Rate has increased.

Next: Bullpen Issues

Bullpen Issues

As mentioned previously, the bullpen has had its share of hiccups over the past two weeks, and those hiccups explain our rather pedestrian eight wins in our last fourteen contests, despite the rotation producing nine Quality Starts in that span.

I am not an idealistic fan who anticipates a reliever with the pitching repertoire of Sandy Koufax to exit the bullpen every time a pitching change is requested. Nonetheless, my job is to make an argument and present supporting evidence to strengthen said argument.

As well as our rotation has performed since August 1, our relief corp. has been equally atrocious. The following chart summarizes the Bullpen’s performance over the course of the entire season, while comparing said performance to that exhibited over the past 15 days:

The WHIP has approached comedic levels, while the ERA and FIP values have risen dramatically. Our strikeout rates have increased slightly, but nowhere close to the magnitude necessary to offset a walk rate that is nearly double the league average.

Next: The Fall Guys

The Fall Guys

I hold no personal grudges and merely report the findings of my data-driven research; Fernando Abad and Junichi Tazawa have performed about as poorly as any relievers that I have ever witnessed throughout my entire history of following this great game of baseball.

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One similarity between Abad and Tazawa is their proclivity to allow inherited runners to cross home plate with an alarming frequency. This is, arguably, the greatest sin of any reliever; after all, a reliever is frequently transported into the contest with men on base and assigned the task of preventing or minimizing the damage.

Tazawa and Abad combined have allowed 27 of 53 inherited runners to score. That is entirely unacceptable and places both of them among the worst in Major League Baseball at stranding inherited runners. The two of them combine to allow 51% of all inherited runners to score. It should be noted that this is almost double the league average rate of inherited runners scoring, which is 31%.

Next: Junichi Tazawa

Fernando Abad

The other porous link in our bullpen is the newly acquired Fernando Abad. The chart below compares Abad’s performances in Minnesota and Boston:

Relative to his performance in Minnesota, Abad is allowing HRs at nearly quadruple the frequency in Boston. His FIP and ERA values in Boston range from double to triple the values they assumed in Minnesota, he is walking nearly as many batters as he is striking out, and he has allowed 80% of Inherited Runners to score.

Abad’s BAA and his WHIP have increased to Rookie Ball type numbers, and said values cannot be allowed to be exhibited in a major league contest, especially for a team fighting for a postseason berth.

Next: The Solution

The Solution

I have spent much of this article calling for a reduction in the leverage of the situations in which Abad and Tazawa are summoned to pitch. Anyone can articulate what one does not want to happen; however, a comprehensive position requires a proposed solution.

With the injury to Steven Wright, Clay Buchholz moves from the bullpen into the starting rotation, leaving us with a seven-man bullpen consisting of Craig Kimbrel, Matt Barnes, Brad Ziegler, Robbie Ross, Heath Hembree, Tazawa and Abad.

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The proper occupants for certain bullpen roles will be elucidated in this section. According to my plan, Tazawa and Abad will be relegated to game situations in which the Red Sox are either ahead or behind by four or more runs.

We would now be left with five viable bullpen arms: Kimbrel, Barnes, Ziegler, Ross and Hembree. Kimbrel remains the closer, assuming that he is healthy enough to pitch well. I strongly advocate that the eighth-inning becomes Barnes’ assignment, and I would give Ziegler the seventh inning duties. By clarifying the roles of Barnes and Ziegler, giving both of them ownership of a particular inning and eradicating any questions as to when they will be inserted into the game, they will be prepared to perform.

By allowing our best arms to close out the game, we ensure that any comeback by the opposing team after six innings can only be accomplished by rallying against triple-digit gas or a quirky submarine delivery that has proven successful.

As for Ross, he can be utilized as a situational lefty, and I have no problem with him completing an entire inning against both left-handed and right-handed batters.

Lastly, Hembree can float throughout the game and be inserted at any point where his style might be most effective.

Personally, I would rather have seen Joe “Wild Thing” Kelly back as opposed to Hembree, although, in fairness to Hembree, he does have better numbers. Nonetheless, I refuse to believe that Kelly and his 102 mph gas could not be an explosive weapon for any team, let alone one fighting for a playoff berth.

If Farrell or Willis cannot figure out a way to harness such a brilliant arm, then perhaps they belong in Pawtucket, and not masquerading as MLB instructors in the great Bay State.

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In conclusion, we have the weapons to mimic the Kansas City Royals’ run to the 2015 championship; the only question that remains is whether or not we have the manager bold enough to mimic Ned Yost.