Red Sox: How Steven Wright got his groove back

June 25 – July 31

In Wright’s following seven starts, from June 25 through July 31, inclusive, Wright produced an ERA of 6.18. Nonetheless, as the beneficiary of an average of 7.1 runs of support per game during those seven starts, Wright won four games, while losing only once. The Red Sox won five of those seven starts, somewhat masking Wright’s poor pitching performances and rendering said performances more palatable.

From June 25 to July 31, inclusive, Wright made seven starts; only two of those seven were of the “Quality” variety.

In comparison to his first 14 starts, Wright’s next seven starts saw his BAA and his SLG increase by about 50%.

Strangely, his Strikeout Rate and his Walk Rate remained remarkably unaltered.

While the above numbers are clearly indicative of a decline in performance, they are in no way indicative of a tripling of Wright’s ERA.

I do not want to give away the reasons for a seemingly unjustified tripling of Wright’s ERA; however, Wright was the beneficiary of short-term fluctuations in BABIP during his initial 14 starts, perhaps during his next seven starts, he was the victim of short-term fluctuations in BABIP.

In Wright’s seven starts made between June 25 and July 31, his ERA was 6.18 and his FIP was 3.96.

During this period, Wright’s ERA was significantly higher than his FIP, indicating that he was the victim of short-term fluctuations in BABIP.

Remember that the Major League average for BABIP is around .297, and when a pitcher’s BABIP is very near that value, his FIP and ERA will be virtually identical. When a pitcher’s ERA is well above his FIP, one can be sure that his BABIP greatly exceeds .297.

A quick perusal of the chart above indicates that during this seven game span, Wright’s BABIP was .362, far greater than the league average value of .297.

Next: Rest of the season