Red Sox starter Drew Pomeranz: An in-depth breakdown
Red Sox starter Drew Pomeranz has been better than most fans recognize and, while the price may have been steep, Dombrowski’s history may suggest otherwise.
Despite emerging triumphant against the San Francisco Giants on Wednesday night, it appears that the citizenry of Red Sox Nation are exceedingly disenchanted with the trade that brought starting pitcher Drew Pomeranz to the Red Sox in exchange for highly ballyhooed pitching prospect Anderson Espinoza. While I can understand their concerns, rational thought processes are required to see the proverbial forest through the trees.
First, one start is far too soon to form any judgments, especially for a pitcher who last started a baseball game on June 7. Second, a move that, at the very least, requires questioning was assigning Pomeranz the number “31,” the same number worn by Jon Lester. An action such as this appears to be management’s technique of publicly proclaiming that Pomeranz is the heir to Lester, despite, in reality, serving only to augment the pressure and scrutiny placed upon our new pitcher.
The rest of his tenure with the Red Sox won’t go as poorly as his debut did, so let’s address the multitude of reasons why fans should be excited about the newest addition to the rotation, despite what occurred on the mound Wednesday night.
Next: Farm System
Our Farm System
As for those concerned about the depletion of our farm system by trading away our best pitching prospect, I would not be excessively concerned. According to ESPN’s Keith Law’s midseason top 50 MLB prospects, Benintendi, Moncada, and Devers are ranked as the third, fifth, and seventh-best overall prospects, respectively, in all of Major League Baseball.
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Some may contend that those are position players, and express apprehension about the lack of elite major league pitching prospects. Such an argument would be fallacious as the recent signing of Jason Groome, and the development of right-hander Michael Kopech, who, in an article written by ESPN Staff Writer Scott Lauber, was claimed to “have the best arm I’ve ever seen,” by a Red Sox official.
Kopech has earned such lofty commendation by recently delivering a pitch for Salem, the Red Sox Class-A affiliate, that registered a blistering 105 mph on two different radar guns.
Thus, in addition to possessing three of the top seven position prospects in all of baseball, our farm system remains stocked with elite arms.
Another point that deserves mention is that Espinoza is only 18 years old and likely three years away from attainment of the Major League experience; a lot can happen in that time. I wish the young man nothing but success, but how many arms deemed “elite” at that young age never make a single pitch in the Major Leagues?
My final piece of consolation regarding the loss of Espinoza is what one longtime baseball elevator offered up in this rhetorical question to ESPN’s Buster Olney, “When was the last time Dave Dombrowski traded a really good player”?
Next: Quantifying the Need
Quantifying the Need
Anyone who knows anything about baseball was acutely aware of the Red Sox problems with their starting rotation. However, I have yet to see or read any article quantifying that need and, as a result, I assigned myself with said task.
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Prior to our acquisition of Pomeranz, our rotation was 60-percent complete, e.g., three of our starters were productive, while the remaining two, whoever was rotated in for the week, were horrifically unproductive.
It does appear that Eduardo Rodriguez may have turned the corner; however, this article is mainly referring to our rotation, as it has existed macroscopically throughout the entire 2016 campaign.
No other statistic better highlights our prescient need for a starter not named Price, Porcello, or Wright than the following: The Red Sox pitching staff has produced a total of 47 Quality Starts, and the three aforementioned names can lay claim to 39 of them. In other words, our fourth and fifth starting pitchers combined have produced a total of eight Quality Starts in all of 2016. The chart below further quantifies our dire need of assistance, (Pomeranz’s first start with the Red Sox was not included in these numbers):
| 2016 | Price, Wright, and Porcello | All Other Starters |
| Team Record in Starts | 36-21 | 16-18 |
| Quality Starts | 39 | 8 |
| FIP | 3.26 | 6.37 |
| ISO | 0.134 | 0.245 |
| BB% | 6.1 | 11.3 |
| K% | 22.0 | 15.4 |
Next: Pomeranz adds a cutter
Pomeranz Adds a Cutter
Drew Pomeranz has pitched in the Major Leagues from 2011 through the present and until this year only featured 2.5 pitches, a fastball, a great curveball that he will throw at any time and in any count, and a seldom used change-up. It is hard to work through a line-up multiple times with only two legitimate pitches, and that is the reason that Pomeranz has been a relatively unsuccessful pitcher until this season.
In Spring Training, a minor-league pitcher taught Pomeranz how to throw a cut-fastball, and it is the addition of said pitch to his repertoire that has enabled Pomeranz’s escalation from a fringe Major League pitcher to an All-Star pitcher.
In addition, as displayed in the chart below, Pomeranz had colossal lefty/righty splits prior to learning the cutter. From 2011 through 2015, he had tremendous difficulties with right-handed batters; however, the addition of the cutter in 2016 has provided him with the weaponry necessary to attack right-handed hitters. The staggering results are demonstrated in the chart below:
| Vs. Right-Handed Batters | Pomeranz 2011-2015 | Pomeranz 2016 |
| FIP | 4.68 | 2.95 |
| ISO | 0.164 | 0.123 |
| BB% | 11.3 | 9.0 |
| K% | 18.0 | 31.0 |
Next: He's better than you think
Pomeranz: He is Better Than you Think
Very few people are cognizant that Pomeranz was a highly touted pitching prospect prior to reaching the Major Leagues, as demonstrated by his selection in first round of the 2010 player draft by the Cleveland Indians; Pomeranz was selected ahead of Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard, and Chris Sale. Clearly, the talent is there and it was on full exhibition in San Diego this season.
Of the 17 starts that Pomeranz made with the Padres in 2016, he allowed three runs or less in 15 of those starts; however, his failure to pitch at least six innings in some of those starts resulted in his accumulation of only 11 Quality Starts. The following chart summarizes just how dominating Pomeranz has been this season:
| 2016 | Pomeranz 2016 (17 Starts) |
| Quality Starts | 11 |
| Starts in which he allowed 3 ER or Less | 15 |
| Starts in which he allowed 2 ER or Less | 12 |
| Starts in which he allowed 1 ER or Less | 9 |
| Starts in which he allowed 0 ER | 7 |
Now there will be those naysayers who point to his production as being a function of pitcher-friendly Petco Park; however, as indicated in the below chart, Pomeranz has actually pitched better away from the spacious confines of Petco:
| Pomeranz 2016 | Home | Road |
| FIP | 3.27 | 2.90 |
| ISO | 0.113 | 0.096 |
| BB% | 8.7 | 11.1 |
| K% | 27.7 | 28.2 |
Next: Pomeranz VS. the AL East
Pomeranz VS. the AL East
One of the reasons that rendered Pomeranz so attractive is his career numbers against AL East opponents, as indicated in the chart below. For the purposes of increasing the sample size and adding statistical significance to the results, I have included his career numbers against all five teams in the AL East, including the Red Sox.
Pomeranz has pitched one game against an AL East opponent this season, the New York Yankees. On July 2, Pomeranz performed brilliantly against the Bronx Bombers tossing seven innings, allowing a single earned run on five hits, walking none, while striking out seven.
| Vs. AL East (Including Boston) | Pomeranz (Career) |
| IP | 45.2 |
| FIP | 2.66 |
| WHIP | 0.92 |
| BB% | 6.3 |
| K% | 26.1 |
Next: A wise decision
A Wise Decision
In summation, given the fact that this was Pomeranz’s first start in nearly two weeks, that he was pitching in front of the home crowd, desperately anxious to show the Red Sox fans that he was worth the relinquishing of Anderson Espinoza, and the fact that this game was on ESPN are all reasonable explanations for his poor performance. In addition, he has pitched for the Rockies, Athletics, and Padres; none of which ever draws the type of crowds to which he was exposed on Wednesday night at Fenway.
Even more comforting is that he has faced the Giants on three occasions this season, allowing 5 ER and 13 H in 17.1 IP. Thus, we already know that he can pitch well against the Giants; had he been obliterated by Toronto one might wonder if he was capable of pitching well against AL East opponents, although I would still advise against judging a pitcher based on a single performance. Plus, Pomeranz already has a record of accomplishment of pitching admirably against AL East opponents as mentioned above and he is going to pitch well for this club.
Next: Red Sox: The Brock Star is back
Pomeranz is under club control until the end of the 2018 campaign, meaning that we did not relinquish our best pitching prospect for a three-month rental. Given that this was not the case for other attainable options on the trade market, the Pomeranz trade should prove to be a wise decision by the Red Sox.