Red Sox: Should Dustin Pedroia win the Final Vote?

Breaking down the candidates on the Final Vote ballot to determine if a Red Sox player will claim the final American League All-Star roster spot.

The rosters are almost set for the 2016 MLB All-Star Game, but before the most talented players in the game take the field in San Diego on Tuesday, we still need to add one more player to each squad.

This is where the MLB Final Vote comes in, where fans get to select from a list of five candidates in each league to determine who gets the last roster spot. Fans can vote on MLB.com, by texting from their phones or even on Twitter.

Great, so now that we know how to vote, who are we going to vote for?

The Boston Red Sox are in full campaign mode for veteran second baseman Dustin Pedroia. While this may seem like shameless promotion fueling a popularity contest, that’s essentially what the Final Vote is. MLB wants the Midsummer Classic to be for the fans, so involving them in the process is one way to do that. This is why every team with a player on the ballot, not just the Red Sox, is trying to drive fans to cast their votes.

But what if the decision weren’t based on which fan base manages to stuff the ballot with the most votes? Stay with me here, because this may sound a bit unorthodox, but what if the Final Vote was awarded to the player that deserves to be an All-Star most based on what they have produced on the field?

Rather than predict how fans are going to vote, let’s break down each candidate to list in descending order which players are most worthy of being an All-Star this season.

Next: Michael Saunders

No. 4: Evan Longoria

Longoria is last in fan voting, which may be partially due to playing for the small market Tampa Bay Rays. He shouldn’t be last, but I can’t put him any higher than this either.

The 30-year old third baseman is hitting .280 with an .843 OPS, but those numbers are a bit understated thanks to the pitcher-friendly confines he calls home. His 126 OPS+ (a stat adjusted for league and park effects) ranks 22nd in the league and 5th among third basemen.

He also hits in the middle of the lowest scoring team in the league, limiting his counting stats. We certainly can’t hold it against him that his team is incapable of assembling a productive lineup around him.

Then again, without any  protection in the lineup, it’s a wonder that teams don’t pitch around him more. Longoria has drawn only 25 walks this season, putting him outside the top 50 in the league. His 7.0 BB% would be a career low, continuing a decline in recent years from his career 9.8% walk rate.

The two-time Gold Glove winner is normally as sure-handed as they get at the hot corner, but this year his -3 defensive runs saved puts him near the bottom of the league at his position, while his 5 errors are tied for 9th most in the league.

His defensive decline is part of why he is tied for last among our candidates with a 2.1 WAR.

Next: Dustin Pedroia

No. 3: Dustin Pedroia

Red Sox fans will surely want to see the veteran second baseman higher on the list, but an objective review can’t find enough evidence to rationalize Pedroia winning the Final Vote.

This has still been a strong season for Pedroia, who has been hampered by injuries the past two years. His .305 batting average and .810 OPS are the highest he has produced since 2011, a season that saw him finish 9th in MVP voting.

The Laser Show is 7th in the league with 103 hits and his 20 doubles puts him on pace to flirt with the 40 mark, which he hasn’t done since 2013, when he was last an All-Star. He is also showing more pop in his bat with 8 home runs, putting him on a pace that would give him the most he has hit since the career-high 21 that he smacked in 2011.

Where Pedroia’s value has really shined most has been in the field, where his 7 defensive runs saved leads the league among second basemen. His range appeared to be slipping the past couple of years, but getting healthy and spending the winter focusing on agility has restored him to his Gold Glove form.

Despite all those positives, Pedroia still comes up short (not a pun based on his height, honest!). He has a frustrating habit of grounding into double-plays, leading the majors with 16. His 2.9 WAR is 17th in the league, but only 4th among second basemen. That not only keeps him outside of the elite at his position, it means he’s not even the top second baseman on the Final Vote ballot.

Next: Ian Kinsler

No. 2: Ian Kinsler

Pedroia settling for 4th at his position goes to show how much depth there is at second base in the AL. Jose Altuve is an MVP candidate and deserving starter in the All-Star Game, while Robinson Cano is back to putting up prolific numbers after his Seattle Mariners debut got off to a slow start a year ago. If we had to select another second baseman for the All-Star roster, it would have to be Kinsler.

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The Detroit Tigers second baseman is just ahead of Pedey with a 3.2 WAR. Kinsler is hitting .294/.354/.494 with 16 home runs and 52 RBI, both of which rank second behind Cano among AL second basemen.

Kinsler has been a bit above average defensively, but his track record shows he should be considered better than that. His range may be slipping at age 34, but he’s still solid in the field.

The gap in power and run production gives Kinsler an edge that Pedroia can’t overcome with superior defense and a marginal advantage in batting average and OBP. That leaves Kinsler as the top second baseman on this ballot.

But not the top candidate overall…

Next: George Springer

No. 1: George Springer

When I made my selections for the American League All-Star rosters last month I had Springer as my top outfield reserve. Flash forward a few weeks and not much has changed.

Ok fine, so I had Kinsler on my list of reserves as well. Really, this Final Vote decision came down to a toss up between the two. So why Springer over Kinsler?

Springer’s .266 batting average is far below Kinsler’s, the result of 87 strikeouts that put him just outside the top 10 in the league. However, Springer also walks a lot more, with 47 free passes this season to rank 6th in the league. Therefore his .363 OBP (a superior stat than batting average) is higher than Kinsler’s.

With 19 homers, Springer’s power production is only marginally better, while Kinsler actually has a slight edge in extra-base hits. Kinsler has also been better on the base paths, stealing 8 bases on 11 attempts, while Springer is only 6-for-12 in steal attempts.

Defensively is where Springer more than makes up the difference. His 10 defensive runs saved are fifth most among AL outfielders and he’s third in the league with 8 outfield assists.

While Springer and Kinsler are fairly evenly matched at the plate, Springer’s advantage in the field is the primary reason why his 3.6 WAR beats Kinsler. Springer is 7th in the league in WAR, just behind Mookie Betts and ahead of Bradley. A case can be made that Springer deserves to start over JBJ and if the Astros hadn’t gotten off to a slow start then he may have gotten more support from Houston’s fan base. It also helped Bradley’s case that the bulk of the voting process came on the heels of his 29-game hit streak.

Next: Red Sox offensive machine: Sandy Leon

The surging Astros are now second in the AL West and only a game behind the Red Sox for the second wild card. It leaves you to wonder if the fan voting for the starters began today if Springer would get enough votes to make a run at a starting spot.

Probably not, but Springer still deserves to have his name selected on Final Vote ballots.