Red Sox: Trading for a starter may not be realistic
This is where Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski offers a reality check. Just because we want to trade for a pitcher, doesn’t mean there is another team out there eager to give one up.
“The thing you have to remember is that you have two clubs to make a deal, and most clubs, as I’ve said all along and it hasn’t changed whatsoever, really are not prepared to move towards 2017 and be in a position where they’re willing to move,” Dombrowski explained to the assembled media over the weekend in Texas. “There are probably five clubs that have been looking at that all year long, and I think those five clubs are the ones that remain.”
Dombrowski goes on to explain that it’s still early, with over a month to go until the trade deadline. Teams aren’t willing to waive the white flag on 2016 until they reach the point where the postseason is no longer reasonably within reach. Ever since the second Wild card was introduced in 2012, teams have remained in the hunt longer, limiting the number of sellers at the deadline.
Entering the day on Monday, there are only eight teams that are at least eight games out of a playoff spot. Everyone else is at least close enough that they’ll want to wait a few weeks before reassessing their position. So out of these eight teams, which ones are actually realistic trade partners for the Red Sox?
Next: American League Teams
The Minnesota Twins? Take a look at their rotation and let me know which pitcher you’d actually want to wear a Red sox uniform. None of them have an ERA below 4.64, making them the worst starting staff in baseball.
The Tampa Bay Rays have a number of talented starters that are having poor seasons. Do you want to take the chance that a change of scenery is all they need to turn things around this season? That’s assuming that they are even willing to deal any of their young, cost-controlled starters within the division. Chris Archer‘s double-digit strikeout rate is still appealing, but his bloated 4.70 ERA won’t stop the Rays from asking for a king’s ransom in return. He’s also allowing an average of one home run per start, despite playing in a pitcher’s park. I wouldn’t pay his 2015 price if he’s going to continue to deliver 2016 results.
The Los Angeles Angels don’t have any starters to get overly excited about. Nick Tropeano sports an appealing 3.25 ERA, but he’s allowing an .818 OPS to opposing hitters and has coughed up 8 homers in 10 starts. The 25-year old is also cheap and under control until 2022, so there’s no reason for the Angels to trade him unless a team is willing to blow them away with an offer they can’t refuse. Besides, any team that has Mike Trout in the lineup shouldn’t be giving up on the season already.
The Oakland A’s could be an option, but we would need to wait for Rich Hill to return from his stint on the disabled list before considering a move to bring him back to Boston. Sonny Gray‘s name has been floated in the rumor mill all year, but his struggles this season have diminished his value to the point where Oakland would be better off keeping him in hopes that he’ll increase his value with a strong second half. Gray has posted a solid 3.23 ERA over his last 5 starts this month, signaling a possible return to form after a horrendous May.
Next: National League Teams
Let’s take a look at the National League, where a few teams may be ready to throw in the towel and look to the future.
The Cincinnati Reds have a few quality young arms, but none of them will be arbitration eligible before 2018, so there is no rush to move them. If the Reds look to sell it will be bats like Jay Bruce that they look to unload. He’s having a strong season and has an affordable $13 million team option for next season before he hits free agency the following year, making him a potential short-term solution to plug in left field until Andrew Benintendi is ready for the big leagues. The Red Sox could consider him if they don’t start getting some of their injured position players back soon, but pitching is the far bigger priority.
The Philadelphia Phillies likewise aren’t going to give up their best young pitchers either. Jerad Eickhoff has been their best starter, but as one of the prizes of last year’s Cole Hamels deadline deal, he’s likely off limits. Aaron Nola looked great a month ago, but he hasn’t made it out of the fourth inning in any of his last four starts and owns a 10.42 ERA in June. Philly would probably be willing to give us Jeremy Hellickson, but is he really a significantly better option than what we have already?
The Padres are rumored to be open to trading just about anyone. They already kicked off trading season by unloading James Shields earlier this month, for which the Red Sox can only feel fortunate that they weren’t the ones to make that mistake. Drew Pomeranz would be the target here. He’s 14th in the majors with a 2.76 ERA and 7th with a 10.43 K/9 in his breakout season. He’ll be arbitration eligible next year, so the Padres may look to deal him before his price starts to go up, but the Red Sox would be able to keep him through 2019. The concern with him is his 4.0 BB/9 rate. Walks have always been an issue for Pomeranz, and while the elite strikeout rate helps offset those control issues, excessive free passes will get you in trouble in the AL East. Just ask Henry Owens.
That leaves us with the Atlanta Braves, who have been heavily tied to the Red Sox lately with rumors involving Julio Teheran. The problem is that the Braves are reluctant to move their top starter and would only do so if a team is willing to give up the type of haul typically reserved for a legitimate ace starter, when Teheran may not actually fit that profile. If the Braves do end up shopping him, he’s likely to be the best available starter on the market. While he would slot in the Red Sox rotation as a solid No. 2 or 3 starter, the price it would take may not be worth it.
Next: Staying internal for now
So there you have it. At this point in the season there are a limited number of teams that might entertain the idea of selling, but none of those teams have a starter to offer that the Red Sox would have more than lukewarm interest in as the No. 2 starter they would like.
If the Red Sox were to pull the trigger on a deal now then it would likely be for a back of the rotation starter, but that’s only useful if they can ensure that the pitcher they acquire is a significant upgrade from the options they already have. Otherwise it’s more of a lateral move, so why give up any assets for that?
Dombrowski acknowledged that injuries have played a part in the lack of depth and the anticipation of some of those players returning is one reason why he is hesitant to rush into make a trade.
That means we’re likely to see Buchholz, with his 5.90 ERA (6.31 ERA as a starter), take the mound again later this week.
“I anticipate he’ll start for us again,” said Dombrowski after Buchholz took the loss in Sunday afternoon’s game. “I anticipate, but your’e asking me questions and we haven’t even had a chance to get showered, basically, so we still have time to sit down and visit and have all those types of discussions. But I anticipate he will.”
This isn’t about Dombrowski being delusional enough to expect Buchholz to suddenly return to his 2013 form. He’s merely looking for someone to hold down the fort until a better option becomes available.
Everyone wants to see the blockbuster trade, but we can’t realistically expect that to happen. Perhaps in a few weeks when we are closer to the deadline we’ll find a few more teams dropping out of the playoff hunt, potentially adding more sellers to a weak market. It’s too early for that now, so with so many more buyers than sellers, it’s going to take a premium price to acquire talent that falls short of being considered elite.
Next: Get ready to lose prospects
Dombrowski is well ware that this pitching staff needs to be improved, but he’s not going to rush into a bad deal for the sake of doing something. He’s waiting patiently to see if the right type of pitcher actually becomes available, that’s when he’ll strike.
In the meantime, we need to try to get by with what we’ve got – even if what we’ve got isn’t very good.