Boston Red Sox at the one-third mark

The Boston Red Sox are at the one-third mark for the 2016 campaign. A review of that collection of 54 games and a prognosis of the next 54.

The Boston Red Sox have finished off a third of the 2016 season and are certainly in the hunt for a division title and a potential trip to the World Series. The bumps, surprises, disappointment and frustration that are all embroiled in a season are packaged nicely for RSN to ride the emotional roller coaster.

The changes that were made certainly have been a contributing factor, as back-to-back failure gets attention in lost advertising and ticket revenue. The ownership responded as they usually do with bold moves to address the issues and that meant significant management and player changes.

Any Red Sox fan would be pleased if they were told the team would be where they are at this point in the season and, of course, being Red Sox fans we would grouse about it and expect significantly more. High standards? High expectations? Unrealistic expectations? Package all three together as that is our nature and give ourselves a collective “Boo-yah.” I’ll put it out there – we are the most intense and knowledgeable group in baseball.

Time for a glance at the first third of the season and a possible forecast of the next third.

Next: Infield

Outfield

Let’s get the bad news out of the way and that is the UZR/150 of left field that ranks next to last in the American League with a -6.7. Much of that is weighted by range factors, since the good news is they are collectively a plus two in DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) and lead the AL in OOZ (Plays outside Zone). The other two outfield slots? Oh boy, as visions of Fred Lynn and Dwight Evans appear.

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One must also take swings and this group can produce runs in batches and are similar to their infield counterparts – no sustainable power. Gee – I’ll live with that, as the runs keep flowing and the hits keep rattlin’. You go metrics and use WAR, this grouping is well ahead of every other outfield contingent in the AL. Best outfield in AL? I’ll argue that.

The Red Sox have responded with some game time for Blake Swihart and his transition will be watched like investors watch Janet Yellen for a sneeze. Swihart’s early results are promising with the glove and he’ll need some at-bats to see if he can join the line drive club. Swihart is the latest attempt to rectify a situation that surfaced in spring training and just maybe the promising bat of Swihart will be entrenched in LF?

The issue with left field surfaced in the spring when Rusney Castillo simply failed to realize the idea is you are supposed to use a bat to hit the little white sphere the pitcher tosses. A plus defender with a limped bat. Off to Pawtucket. Chris Young was hired on with a two-year deal to do what he does best and rake left-hand pitchers and fill in where needed.

The Red Sox minor league depth in the outfield is quite limited, so a move in the next month to solidify LF may not be a cosmic shock. No diss on the versatile Mr. Holt, but his role appears better suited for the ultimate Golden Ticket of utility work.

First Third Surprise: Jackie Bradley over .300.

First Third Disappointment: Castillo not grabbing LF.

First Third Results: Excellent.

Second Third Prognosis: Excellent

Next: Designated Hitter and Catcher

Designated Hitter and Catcher

Start with the DH. As long as David Ortiz has his feet in stable condition this will be a Sayonara for the ages. Big Papi is just killing the ball and if pitchers could prosecute then Papi would be on death row. I always considered the sendoff season by Ted Williams in 1960 to be the benchmark for going out with a flourish. Ortiz is now approaching that standard.

Catching is in a collective hitting slump league wide. Baseball has a cyclical nature and there are seven teams in the AL where the batting average of the backstops is below the Mendoza Line. Boston is not one. Do not look for any power, as Christian Vazquez has that lone home run – a memorable one at that.

The catchers, to no surprise, lead the league in runs scored, as either Bradley follows them in the order or the collection of .300 hitters that start at the top of the order. Get on base and get your track cleats on. The RBI totals are in the middle of the pack, so you get the occasional tough at-bat. What I will note is Ryan Hanigan is well behind his usual match of walks to strikeout and that – of course – could be traced to keep him off base with the meat coming up.

Defensively enough has been written about the capabilities of Vazquez to terrorize base runners and keep a leash on petulant pitchers. Vaz has game calling skills, exceptional footwork, a strong work ethic, respect from the staff and game smarts. Toss the metrics out with the baby in the wash. This duo is as solid as they come.

Hanigan is what he is and that is a capable reserve. You will get a tad of slippage defensively and offensively when Hanigan takes his turn, but with this lineup they can carry both catchers. And don’t forget Swihart. Swihart can give the versatility to pinch hit and not make roster moves out of a sudden injury.

First Third Surprise: Vazquez coming back strong from TJ surgery.

First Third Disappointment: Swihart getting sent packing.

First Third Results: Very Good.

Second Third Prognosis: Very Good.

Next: Rotation

Rotation

The David Price situation has apparently been rectified and the Red Sox have an Ace. Steven Wright has blossomed into a solid number two starter with his snappy knuckleball mixed in with a fastball that occasionally touches 88 MPH, a slow curve, and a nifty change. The rest of the rotation?

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Rick Porcello is back to 2014 form and that may not stir a groundswell of confidence, but it does mean a level of consistent dependability without up in lights shut down performances. I’ll take it. The remaining parts are one of promise or sheer disappointment. Joe Kelly can either be a reincarnation of Walter Johnson or Julian Tavarez – more often it appears Tavarez wins out. Expect Kelly to get another chance after his latest get your you know what together venture in Pawtucket.

Clay Buchholz recently resolved the fifth rotation slot by a series of self-induced home run derbies. Off to the bullpen to either reform or as a way station to be sent elsewhere. The real key to this rotation is Eduardo Rodriguez and it will take about five or six starts to see if he will help solidify the rotations. E-Rod is back the rotation takes a nice bump up.

The Red Sox drift off like the Marianas Trench after the top three on the rotation, but the good news is they are not alone as that is apparently a pitching contagion in baseball. The Red Sox were forced to take a chance with Sean O’Sullivan, attempt to have patience with Henry Owens and his walk-a-thon and give promising William Cuevas a shot. The methodology is to have your number four and five starters provide a wee bit more stability than your opponents and pick up the extra win.

A few E-Rod starts will give an indication of how his return may project at rotation stabilization and toss Kelly into that mix. Otherwise expect the team to make a move to bolster the rotation and give some R & R to the bullpen.

Statistically, nothing jumps out to pronounce this a great staff – 10th in WAR at 3.0, 11th in ERA (4.60), FIP (4.26) is seventh, sixth in BABIP at .290 and road figures that take a slight dip. Any improvement will be dependent upon Price continuing to be back on the rails and Buchholz sent away to the bullpen.

First Third Surprise: Wright becoming a vintage Tim Wakefield.

First Third Disappointment: Buchholz and Kelly – same old story.

First Third Results: Fair

Second Third Prognosis:  Good.

Next: Relief Pitching

Relief Pitching

The loss of Carson Smith increased the burden on a group for which Smith was designed to lessen the burden. The workload on Junichi Tazawa and Koji Uehara is key. Get both in the 55 game range and they are solid.

Craig Kimbrel has been the real deal. Yes, he will occasionally melt down and that happens, but when he is on he’s as good as it gets. A solid move to acquire such a talent. Robbie Ross and Tommy Layne have both had their games in the sun and in the shadows. Neither can be considered exceptional, but both are capable performers and Ross showed in 2015 he can close.

Heath Hembree and Matt Barnes have taken advantage of the bullpen opportunities and taken their careers to the next level. Both toss hard and can go multiple innings. Their performance can certainly neutralize or minimize the loss of Smith.

Boston will be in the hunt for reserves to help shore up the bullpen and it may internal depending on Pat Light continuing to make progress at Pawtucket. Light can certainly “bring it,” but some times what he brings is a series of walks. Otherwise expect Dombrowski to work the wire and bring in some additional help or maybe Buchholz will show his value out of the ‘pen?

Stats wise the bullpen is seventh in AL War at 1.6, but was 2.2 before Baltimore. Despite some bumps in the rotation relief innings slot in at seventh place, so wear and tear was not that dramatic, but it is a long season.  FIP is sixth in the AL and ERA is eighth.  The real downside is the ‘pen is under .500 at 7-10.

First Third Surprise: Barnes and Hembree (he will be back) becoming more reliable.

First Third Disappointment: Smith going flat line.

First Third Results:  Good.

Second Third Prognosis: Good.

Next: Management

Management

John Farrell was terminated several times by fans and media in the first few weeks of the season as the Red Sox languished and a series of questionable managerial moves were made. Since the team has rebounded Farrell has now been elevated to semi-genius status – that will last as long as they win. A string of losses will result in the heads (Farrell’s) must roll response.

The performance in 2015 of interim manager Torey Lovullo places a Sword of Damocles above Farrell as fingers will point to Torey as an apt substitute when things go sour. Personal issues also have been mentioned regarding the manager and he is a holdover from a previous regime. What saves a manager’s job comes with two levels.

The first level is game management and Farrell does his share of bonehead maneuvers and even the most glorified of all managers – Joe Maddon – certainly does the same. Farrell has them in the hunt and as long as that happens he’ll be solid.

The second area is a noted strength and that is keeping a clean clubhouse – a place where discontent is minimized and nary a sour word leaks to the press about any internal discontent. The Red Sox appear to be a collection of happy campers and winning does that.

Dave Dombrowski and Mike Hazen have made the bold moves necessary to prevent the good ship Red Sox from residing permanently in Davy Jones Locker. Farrell has been given the blessing to go with the best man standing and that means some very expensive talent is on the DL or comfortably touring the International League.

Next: Red Sox Are Wasting Their Opportunity For AL East Title

Ownership has given a baseball version of Urbi et Orbi to DD and his minions and that includes carte blanche with transactions and the promise to once again unlock the vault on Yawkey Way to buy their way out of problems.

First Third Surprise: Farrell survival.

First Third Disappointment: Farrell not getting canned.

First Third Results: Very Good.

Second Third Prognosis: Excellent.

Sources: FanGraphs