Red Sox: Starting pitcher trade targets
If the Boston Red Sox are going to contend in the postseason they will need to upgrade their rotation with a legitimate No. 2 starter.
Let’s be honest – Red Sox fans shouldn’t have a whole lot to complain about right now. The team is in first place, the offense is scoring bundles of runs and we have an exciting young core blossoming before our eyes. In the wake of consecutive last place finishes, what more could you ask for?
Well, this is Boston, so merely being competitive is never sufficient. This team needs to at least make some noise in the postseason in order to wash the taste of the last two years out of our mouths, but in order to do that they are going to need to make some changes in the starting rotation.
The Red Sox have already jettisoned Clay Buchholz to the bullpen, completely shattering any shred of confidence he had left in him. They’ll keep him locked in a box that says “Break glass in case of emergency,” but we can’t count on him to make a significant impact going forward.
He’ll be replaced in the rotation by Eduardo Rodriguez, who the Red Sox hope will build upon his promising rookie season. The team remains high on his upside, and rightly so, but he’s not quite ready to be deemed the No. 2 guy behind ace David Price. Perhaps one day, but we’d like to see a bit more from him before placing that mantle on E-Rod.
Boston could certainly find room in their rotation by removing the replaceable Joe Kelly. A strong finish to the 2015 season and a promising first start after returning from the disabled list this month fooled some into thinking he has earned his spot, but that optimism quickly faded when he followed that with another dud performance. Now he looks like he could be following the path Buchholz was on leading to his banishment from the rotation. If his 6.30 ERA doesn’t convince you that he needs to be replaced, how about the fact that he’s only lasted at least 7 innings nine times in his 78 career starts and has never gone more than 7 1/3 innings.
So we agree, the Red Sox need another proven starter, right? Great, now the only trick is finding one. The organization’s farm system is stacked with trade chips that can be flipped for a pitcher and there are a few appealing options that could be attainable.
Next: Drew Pomeranz
The 27-year old lefty is having a sensational breakout season in his first year with the San Diego Padres, posting a dazzling 1.70 ERA that ranks second in the majors. Take his early career numbers with a grain of salt, as he was pushed to the big leagues at the tender age of 22 and into the worst environment a young pitcher can find in Coors Field. Pomeranz also bounced between the rotation and bullpen the last few years, but now that he’s locked in as a starter he seems to be coming into his own.
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Granted pitching in San Diego’s Petco Park isn’t quite the same as pitching in Fenway, but striking out 10.2 batters per nine innings negates many of those concerns. Pomeranz also has a 2.04 ERA on the road this year, so his success isn’t merely a product of a pitcher-friendly home stadium.
The one red flag with Pomeranz is his 4.2 BB/9 rate, which ranks near the bottom of the league. Walks will come back to bite you facing the deeper lineups in the AL, especially since that 0.5 HR/9 rate isn’t likely sustainable with a change in scenery.
Pomeranz is signed to a cheap $1.35 million deal for this season and has two more years of arbitration after that. The last place Padres are rumored to be open-minded about trading anyone on their roster and the Red Sox have already made a mutually beneficial deal with them when they acquired Craig Kimbrel. Does Dave Dombrowski go back to the well for more pitching help?
Next: Julio Teheran
The former top pitching prospect of the Atlanta Braves was in All-Star in 2014 before stumbling last season, which took some of the shine off his potential. Now he’s bouncing back, posting a 2.57 ERA that ranks just outside the top dozen in the NL.
Teheran has never been a big time strikeout pitcher, but the career-high 8.4 K/9 he has posted this season is solid. He doesn’t walk a lot of batters, giving him a 3.47 K/BB ratio that ties him with some guy named Jon Lester for 19th in the NL.
Teheran appears to be available, but Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reports that Braves general manager John Coppolella will only trade him for a major league hitter of similar quality and age that can help improve their anemic offense that ranks last in the majors in runs scored.
The days of us trading players like Teheran for prospects is over. We need to get better at the major league level. We would have to be overwhelmed to move Teheran,” said Coppolella.
Perhaps Atlanta would be enticed by Blake Swihart, who could replace struggling veteran A.J. Pierzynski behind the plate. Swihart’s bat still has tremendous upside, but the Red Sox seem to have moved on from the idea of having him be the catcher of the future – that job is secured by Christian Vazquez. If that makes Swihart more expendable then he becomes the ideal trade chip to acquire a pitcher like Teheran from a team that wants a bat that can contribute immediately.
Next: Rich Hill
We all remember this story. Hill hadn’t appeared in a major league game as a starter since 2009, then bounced around to the bullpens of several different teams, including Boston, before returning to the Red Sox late last season after a stint in the independent Atlantic League. All he did when he put on a Red Sox uniform again was go 2-1 with a 1.55 ERA, while striking out 36 batters in 29 innings cover four starts.
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Hill’s shockingly effective return to the big leagues earned him a 1-year, $6 million deal with the Oakland Athletics, which proved to be too rich for a Red Sox team that was lukewarm on the idea of retaining him. They had their eyes on a bigger prize, luring in Price to be their new ace. With the rotation already crowded, the Red Sox didn’t see taking a gamble on Hill based on a minuscule sample size as necessary risk.
Less than two months into the season, the Red Sox find themselves seeking another starter and Hill is proving last year was no fluke. He leads the AL with a 2.18 ERA and his 10.14 K/9 rates fourth. He walks more batters than you’d like to see (3.3 BB/9 this season, 4.1 BB/9 for his career), but allowing base runners doesn’t hurt as much when you have a 48.5 percent ground ball rate that ranks fourth in the majors among pitchers with at least a 10.0 K/9.
Would the Red Sox be up for another go-around with Hill? With Oakland going nowhere this year and Hill hitting the free agent market after this season, there’s little reason for them to hang on to him.
Next: Steven Matz
Take your pick from almost anyone from the vaunted New York Mets rotation – Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard. The Red Sox would be interested in any of them, but Matz may be the most attainable given that he has less of a track record.
The track record Matz does have is pretty darn good though. He exploded onto the scene last year, going 4-0 with a 2.27 ERA. He’s now following that up by going 7-1 with a 2.36 ERA this season, while posting a 5.56 K/BB ratio that ranks 5th in the NL.
The Mets have a loaded rotation, but rank a mere 12th in the NL in runs scored. Boston has the best offense in the majors and needs a starting pitcher. Seems like a perfect fit, right? New York is in a position to try to win now after falling just short in the World Series a year ago, so they’ll only deal if they get a major league ready bat in return.
We can assume that names like Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts are untouchable, but the suddenly surging Jackie Bradley would have a lot of appeal to the Mets. If they want to pry any of those four pitchers away from the Mets, that’s the type of price it would take. They could be another team interested in Swihart, especially since Travis d’Arnaud has struggled to hit in the rare times he’s been healthy in his career.
Next: Kelly is Buchholz part deux
The Red Sox offense is good enough to keep them in the division race this season, but they aren’t going to accomplish their ultimate goal of winning another championship unless they upgrade their rotation. The Mets would be a great place to start if they want to find a starting pitcher, but any of the pitchers on this list would be a drastic improvement for this staff.