Red Sox Rankings: Top 5 Red Sox 2016 Storylines
What are the most important issues to watch for starting out the 2016 Red Sox season?
Baseball teams are made up of 25 players plus coaches and a manager and a big front office staff. In a market like Boston in which every move is put under the microscope there are any number of stories to discuss, especially during Spring Training. While there are other players who could have made this list, those coming back from injury or from poor performance on the field, or both, these five situations are the most crucial to the Red Sox right out of the gate.
When players start games, there are going to be injuries and this year has been no exception. There are players who excel and players who struggle. Sometimes those opposites happen for players in the same position, we call them roster battles here at BoSoxInjection. One of those could make the list. We are coming down to the last few days of camp in which decisions will be made to shape the Opening Day roster.
Let’s take a look at the Top 5 issues to keep an eye on as the season gets underway.
1. Hanley Ramirez’ transition to first base
Before last season, when Ramirez signed in Boston ($88M over four years), it was decided that he would move to left field, a position he had never played before. He was never a great fielder, but he was trying a new position, which should have raised more red flags than it did. How much damage could he do in the tiny left field of Fenway Park? It turned out, the answer was a lot. His defensive runs saved was -19, or worse than the average left fielder by a wide margin. When he struggled at the plate after a hot start and a wrist injury, his defensive shortcomings were more glaring. After Mike Napoli was traded last season, there was an opening at first base.
Considering last year’s disaster in left field, there were few pundits who thought Ramirez would be able to play first base adequately. So far, he is proving the skeptics wrong. He came in to camp trimmer than last season when he tried to bulk up to hit with more power. This year he seemed to focus on agility and that is what he has shown at first base, making all the plays one would expect. He put in the time this Spring, with coach Brian Butterfield, and it is paying dividends.
Of course, this is still only Spring Training so he hasn’t really proved that he can do it when the games count. When you have someone making diving plays, like a seasoned first baseman, you can’t help but be optimistic, though. If there wasn’t pessimism that it can work, it wouldn’t be Red Sox Nation. The Red Sox would be pleased if Hanley was just adequate, because they really don’t have any more places for him on the field. When David Ortiz retires after this year, the Red Sox can slot him in to the DH spot, but for this year, first base has to be Hanley’s.
2. Carson Smith injury
As part of his bullpen reconstruction in the offseason, President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski acquired Carson Smith from the Seattle Mariners, to bolster a bullpen that often was Junichi Tazawa and Koji Uehara then Katie bar the door last season. After back spasms limited him early on, Smith was getting ready to be the seventh inning guy for the Red Sox to start the season when he felt something in his arm on March 21st. The fact it was in the elbow area was alarming but instead of needing Tommy John surgery it appears Smith will be out about a month with a flexor muscle strain.
The bigger problem is who is going to take Smith’s place while he is out for hopefully only a month. Young fireballing righthander Matt Barnes has stepped up this Spring to perform very well. In 10.1 Spring innings through Sunday’s game, Barnes had not allowed a single run, walking just one batter. He struck out 11 batters and has allowed only seven hits in that span. It could very well be Barnes that assumes a prominent seventh inning role trying to get to the end of the bullpen to preserve a win.
Young righty Noe Ramirez has also pitched well this Spring allowing just two runs over 10.2 innings (1.69 ERA) walking six while striking out ten. Considering his performance has not been up to Barnes’ level this Spring and has not pitched as much in the majors (13 career innings) as Barnes (52 career innings), Barnes would seem to have the edge. Ramirez has the advantage of a more unorthodox motion and has minor league options, as Barnes does. Expect that Barnes will make the team out of Spring Training with Ramirez possibly also making the cut to allow maximum flexibility against the big right handed lineups of Baltimore and Toronto that the Red Sox will see in April.
3. Third base battle/Travis Shaw’s emergence
When camp started, the issue with Shaw was more how much first base will he be playing because surely Hanley Ramirez will crash and burn over there so we need Shaw to fill in at first base. The more Shaw hit this Spring, the more apparent it became the Red Sox will make every effort to get Shaw’s bat in the lineup wherever they can. For most of the Spring, Shaw was well over .400 and Sandoval has only started to hit lately, then was sidelined with back soreness.
The Red Sox took that opportunity to shelve plans to try Shaw out in the outfield (he played three games out there in AAA last season) to give him the majority of the reps while Sandoval is trying to get back in the lineup for the last week of camp. Shaw has cooled over the past five days, going 0 for his last 11. You can’t argue with a .367/.404/.571 batting line over his 49 Spring plate appearances, through Saturday, March 27th, however. Considering the Red Sox are going with Brock Holt as their primary left fielder, leaving high-priced Rusney Castillo on the bench, the Red Sox are not afraid to go with the best player regardless of salary.
Sandoval’s slow start (one for 14) brought on these talks of competition with Shaw. The Panda is eight for his last 20 with three doubles and two homers, trying to show people that they shouldn’t count him out just yet. The issue with his back has kept him out the last several days, but Sandoval should return to the lineup this week. It is hard to imagine that Shaw would start over him when the season starts but this team can’t afford to carry a guy who is not hitting. Will Panda be able to get his stroke back in time for the season to start?
4. How long will Eduardo Rodriguez be out/Who will fill in for him?
The young lefthander, who likes to be called E-Rod, injured his right knee on February 27th. The diagnosis was partial subluxation, which is synonymous with dislocation. It is now a month later and Rodriguez still has not appeared in a game. Any hope of his starting the season with the team was dashed about 10 days ago when it was announced he would be starting the season on the disabled list.
All indications are that Rodriguez could be back in the rotation by late April. He would need at least three starts, possibly a fourth to get up the 20 to 25 innings the team wants him to have before starting the season. Assuming no physical complications, late April is a realistic goal, but a second injury during his rehab is a possibility, so that late April return is not set in stone .
The competition for E-Rod’s starting spot seemed to come down to Henry Owens (struggles with command), Roenis Elias (49 career starts coming into this season) and Steven Wright (knuckleballer). Owens was out of the running ten days ago with his inability to throw strikes and Elias’ allowed six runs on seven hits in just two-thirds of an inning last Saturday to the Orioles seem to doom him to the bullpen. Wright has been the man of late, stepping up with 5.2 innings of one run baseball on Sunday to seemingly lock down that fifth starter slot. Wright has earned a 2.66 ERA over 20.1 Spring innings. You aren’t looking for spectacular in your number five starter, just consistently keeping your team in the game. This is something that Wright should be able to provide when he likely makes his first start of the season on April 11 when the turn falls to him for the first time in 2016. Though Farrell is still officially non-committal (Elias has a start for a minor league game scheduled for Thursday), Wright seems to have this locked down. How long can Wright do the job?
5. Will Farrell be fired if poor start?
The Red Sox have a tough early schedule, facing the Toronto Blue Jays six times, and the Houston Astros three games over the first 20 games of the season. The Baltimore Orioles are also coming to town for three games in that span. They beefed up their lineup over the offseason, acquiring sluggers Mark Trumbo (four 20 homer seasons) and Pedro Alvarez (three 20 homer seasons, Silver Slugger, All-Star) along with re-signing masher Chris Davis (led AL in homers in 2013 and 2015). So, the brass might be a little lenient right out of the gate considering the early schedule.
The next milestone to consider is Memorial Day. The brass would have to be looking at that date. They will have played 54 games, or one-third of a 162 game season. They have a 200 million dollar payroll, third highest in the majors. The team has finished in last the previous three out of four seasons. By Memorial Day, if they are not at .500, storm clouds will start to mass at the horizon. They are willing to put lower salaried guys on the field over high-priced ones. The win-now attitude is real. The leash will start to shorten.
John Farrell is recovering from cancer. This is probably the only reason he still has a job. Torey Lovullo did a very credible job going 28-21 as their interim manager at the end of last season. Farrell has only had one season above .500 as a major league manager. He is signed through the end of 2017, but by the All-Star break, he will be gone if they are not in playoff contention.
So, the only appropriate answer to this question is how you define the words “poor” and “start”. Farrell should at least get two months to right the ship. After that, if the team isn’t doing well, he should be gone.
Stay tuned each Tuesday at BoSoxInjection.com for your weekly Power Rankings throughout the 2016 season.