Red Sox bold predictions for 2016
We have some bold predictions about the Boston Red Sox that could happen in 2016, no matter how unrealistic they may seem.
This is the time of year where everyone is making predictions about the upcoming season, which most of the time are relatively safe bets. Why? Because we want to look back at the end of the season and feel a sense of accomplishment that we were right.
That’s not the case here. We want our predictions to be bold.
Anyone can guess that David Price will strike out at least 200 batters, as he’s done so in four of the last five seasons. That’s boring. While few pitchers reach that lofty strikeout total, we expect that type of elite production from Price. Why else would the Red Sox be paying him $30 million?
Instead our goal is to make predictions that aren’t as likely to happen. We aren’t aiming to make out of this world statements that have no chance of happening, like Price finishing with a 34-0 record. While our predictions may seemingly be unlikely, they all come with explanations of why they remain feasible.
With that in mind, let’s make some bold predictions about the Red Sox for the 2016 season.
Next: Shaw and Ramirez
Travis Shaw will hit 30 home runs
Why it could happen: Manager John Farrell has already indicated that the starting third base job is now a competition, opening the door for Shaw to steal it away from Pablo Sandoval. Shaw hit 13 home runs last season in only 226 at-bats, which would have put him in range to flirt with the 30 homer mark if we were to extrapolate that production over a full season with a starter’s workload. Even if it takes most of the month of April for Shaw to wrestle the full-time job away from Sandoval, there’s still time for him to see enough plate appearances to make a run at this goal.
Hanley Ramirez hits over .300
Why it could happen: Expectations are low for Ramirez following a season where he hit .249, but a bounce-back campaign could be in order. He’s a career .296 hitter, so topping the .300 mark isn’t that far-fetched. He hit a scorching .345 as recently as 2013, even if it did come in an injury shortened season. Last year’s struggles were a combination of injury and frustration over his failure to learn the outfield, but he’s healthy now and a return to the infield should help restore his confidence. Ramirez hit 10 home runs in April last year, but seemed to be trying too hard to take advantage of how close the left field wall is at Fenway. This spring he seems to be driving the ball better instead of trying to hit home runs, which is the approach he’s taken when he is at his best.
Next: Ortiz and Bogaerts
David Ortiz will fall short of both 25 home runs and 80 RBI
Why it could happen: Big Papi has reached 30 homers and driven in at least 100 in each of the last three seasons, so you expect him to at least come close to those marks. Except now he’s 40 years old, an age where no hitter has reached 30 home runs or 100 RBI in a season in nearly 30 years. Serving as a DH for most of his career has preserved his body more than most, but we have to assume he’ll need more rest than usual at his age and there is greater risk of injury at this stage of his career. A 2012 season where he was limited to 90 games is the only year he has failed to reach either 25 homers or 80 RBI since he became a member of the Red Sox. He’ll be in the lineup more than that this year, but not enough to reach the production we’ve seen the last few years.
Xander Bogaerts hits 20+ home runs to go along with 20+ steals
Why it could happen: Only four hitters in the majors produced 20/20 seasons last year, so this is rare territory that Bogaerts would be entering. Mookie Betts is the one most expect to join that exclusive club after coming close to it in 2015, but why can’t Bogaerts make a run at it as well? It would take a significant leap, considering he was well short with only 7 homers and 10 steals last year, but more power has always been expected as the 23-year old continues to develop. Earlier this spring Bogaerts revealed that the lack of home runs was partially by design, but he will consider swinging for the fences more often when he gets ahead in a fastball count. He also has the speed to swipe 20 bags, but was rarely given the green light batting in front of Ortiz. Farrell has toyed with the idea of batting Bogaerts in the cleanup spot this spring, so if he ends up seeing more time behind Ortiz in the lineup then it opens up more opportunities for him to run.
Next: Bullpen
Craig Kimbrel saves over 50 games
Why it could happen: Only one pitcher in the majors reached 50 saves last year, with Pittsburgh Pirates closer Mark Melancon racking up 51. If Kimbrel can get there it will match the career-high that he set in 2013, when he finished 4th in NL Cy Young voting. Last year he saved 39 games for the San Diego Padres, the lowest save total he has produced since becoming a closer in 2011, but he’s primed to make another run at 50 now that he’s with the Red Sox. He has the support of one of the league’s top offenses, but the starting rotation behind Price remains shaky enough that Boston won’t be winning a ton of blowouts. That means plenty of save chances for Kimbrel. Last season Red Sox relievers combined to convert 40-of-60 save opportunities for a 66 percent success rate, while Kimbrel has a success rate of over 90 percent for his career. If the Red Sox provide him with the same number of opportunities as the bullpen received last year and he coverts them at his career average level then he would end up with 54 saves. The rest of the bullpen may vulture a few of his opportunities, but he should still come close to that range.
Tommy Layne will have the team’s best ERA
Why it could happen: At this point Layne isn’t even a lock to make the roster, but if he does then the Red Sox should deploy him as a lefty specialist. The 3.97 ERA he produced last season wasn’t all that impressive, but only because he wasn’t used properly. Right-handed hitters knocked Layne around to the tune of a .322 average and .950 OPS, but he held lefties to a .148 average and .418 OPS. Boston’s revamped bullpen has enough quality depth on the right side that they can now afford to utilize Layne exclusively against lefties, which is a role he would thrive in.
Next: Buchholz and team record
Clay Buchholz will set a career high in innings pitched
Why it could happen: Buchholz has been deemed too injury prone to rely on as a 200 inning workhorse, but this is the year he will make a serious run at it. A look at his track record reveals that Buchholz manages to stay healthy enough to reach at least 170 innings in even years since he became a full-time starter, but he’s never been able to do so in consecutive years.
2010: 173.2 innings
2011: 82.2 innings
2012: 189.1 innings
2013: 108.1 innings
2014: 170.1 innings
2015: 113.1 innings
Following the every-other-year pattern suggests that Buchholz should return to tossing 170+ innings in 2016, which wouldn’t put him far off from the 190 innings he needs to set a new career high (fine, 189.2 innings would suffice if you want to nit-pick).
Next: Carson Smith to start season on DL
Red Sox will win 95 games
Why it could happen: Too optimistic? The Kansas City Royals won 95 games a year ago to lead the American League before going on to win the World Series. Meanwhile the Red Sox only won 78 games and finished last in their division. It would take a massive leap to get into this territory, but we’ve seen this franchise pull it off before. Boston won 69 games in 2012, but after rebuilding the roster that winter they came back to win 97 the following year and won the World Series. Time for a repeat performance? The Red Sox added a legitimate ace to anchor their rotation, solidified their bullpen, added to their bench and are bound to get bounce-back performances from at least some of their veterans that let them down last year. 95 wins may be a reach, but the good news is that it may not even take that many to come out on top of a competitive AL East division.