David Ortiz will fall short of both 25 home runs and 80 RBI
Why it could happen: Big Papi has reached 30 homers and driven in at least 100 in each of the last three seasons, so you expect him to at least come close to those marks. Except now he’s 40 years old, an age where no hitter has reached 30 home runs or 100 RBI in a season in nearly 30 years. Serving as a DH for most of his career has preserved his body more than most, but we have to assume he’ll need more rest than usual at his age and there is greater risk of injury at this stage of his career. A 2012 season where he was limited to 90 games is the only year he has failed to reach either 25 homers or 80 RBI since he became a member of the Red Sox. He’ll be in the lineup more than that this year, but not enough to reach the production we’ve seen the last few years.
Xander Bogaerts hits 20+ home runs to go along with 20+ steals
Why it could happen: Only four hitters in the majors produced 20/20 seasons last year, so this is rare territory that Bogaerts would be entering. Mookie Betts is the one most expect to join that exclusive club after coming close to it in 2015, but why can’t Bogaerts make a run at it as well? It would take a significant leap, considering he was well short with only 7 homers and 10 steals last year, but more power has always been expected as the 23-year old continues to develop. Earlier this spring Bogaerts revealed that the lack of home runs was partially by design, but he will consider swinging for the fences more often when he gets ahead in a fastball count. He also has the speed to swipe 20 bags, but was rarely given the green light batting in front of Ortiz. Farrell has toyed with the idea of batting Bogaerts in the cleanup spot this spring, so if he ends up seeing more time behind Ortiz in the lineup then it opens up more opportunities for him to run.
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