Red Sox Rankings: Top 5 Closers in the American League
1. Wade Davis
When the Tampa Bay Rays signed Wade Davis to a six year deal before the 2011 season, it was thought the low-budget Rays were locking down a middle of the rotation starter for years to come after a ho-hum, yet durable 2010 in which he posted a 12-10 record in 29 starts with a 4.07 ERA. After another year in the rotation, and a 4.45 ERA, the Rays converted Davis to the bullpen where he flourished. In 2012, he posted a 2.43 ERA in 70.1 innings striking out 87 (11.1 per nine innings). In a franchise-changing deal, the Royals acquired Davis, along with centerpiece James Shields (whose winning attitude transformed their clubhouse) for uber-prospect Wil Myers and future rotation stalwart Jake Odorizzi.
The Royals tried putting Davis back in the rotation with disastrous results in 2013, a 5.67 ERA in 24 starts. Davis’ return to the bullpen was a revelation in September of that season, as he posted a 0.90 ERA over 10 dominant innings in which he allowed just three hits. Of course 10 innings isn’t a season but he continued his success spectacularly the next season posting a 1.00 ERA in 72 innings, allowing an unthinkable .151 batting average and no homers on the season. He wasn’t even the closer yet, but his unhittable repertoire screamed closer material.
In 2015, Davis would get his chance, filling in for incumbent closer Greg Holland started to falter but retained his job (save for a three week DL stint early in the season, when Davis took the job for the first time) into September despite a 6.48 ERA in August. A mediocre September was a worrisome development leading to a medical exam which showed Holland needed elbow damage requiring Tommy John surgery. Wade Davis, time to move that 8th inning success into the 9th inning.
Davis’ eight saves in August and September prepared him for his postseason dominance. 10.2 innings, four saves, 18 strikeouts and one World Championship. Holland’s recovery will take this entire season, so the job is firmly Davis’s. His 0.84 career postseason ERA has a long way to go before getting to Rivera’s number of postseason innings with 0.70 ERA, but his one earned run on 15 hits in 27.1 career postseason innings (0.33 ERA) is phenomenal.
Perhaps it is premature to anoint him the best closer in the league when he hasn’t had a full season under his belt in the role, but his two years of toying with American League hitters to the tune of 0.97 ERA over his last 139.1 innings leads me to believe he will live up to these high expectations. Considering what people pay closers (Jonathan Papelbon, four years, $50 million), that contract Davis signed is a bargain for Kansas City, paying him $8 million. Let’s see if he earns that $10 million option for next season. Greg Holland, take your time coming back from that injury.
Next: 2. Craig Kimbrel
One thing the Red Sox have not needed is a top notch closer the last three years. Koji Uehara has been brilliant (1.82 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, 72 saves) for the most part, save a few hiccups, with a championship to show for it. But Uehara lost the last month of his season to a broken wrist last year and will be 41 years old in a few weeks. While it is wonderful to have many great prospects not all of them can play in the majors at the same time. President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski knew that when he traded elite prospects Javier Guerra and Manuel Margot to the San Diego Padres for one of the elite closers in the game of baseball, Craig Kimbrel.
When you start simply with the fact, the man has pitched five years in the majors, and has 225 saves and a 1.63 career ERA, one doesn’t need to go much further, but let’s take a look a little deeper at his supposed decline. Last season, Kimbrel “slumped” to a 2.58, almost a run higher than his 1.61 ERA in 2015. What his slump really amounted to was a bad six weeks at the start of last season in which he allowed nine earned runs over 13.2 innings. After that, the Alabama native, posted a 1.58 ERA in 45.2 innings for the remainder of that season. Perhaps it was a bit of embarrassment that fueled his return to dominance, but a .120 batting average against in the second half of the season last year tells you all you need to know about what he can still do.
Kimbrel is only 27 years old. He is under Red Sox team control for another three seasons. Last year can easily be attributed to a guy being traded the day before the season away from the organization he had ever known to one across the country. This season, Kimbrel has had plenty of time to adjust to the cauldron that can be playing for the Red Sox. While this writer is not hoping for a Davis implosion, it is not hard to imagine Kimbrel atop this list next season after another stellar campaign, this time in Boston.
Next: 3. Aroldis Chapman
Arguments could be made on either side that Chapman is the best closer in the game, or that he should fall off the list due to the fact he will be suspended until May 9 for a domestic violence incident. Even considering the late start to his season, he is getting the number three slot in the rankings this week due to his overwhelming dominance. If you follow baseball even as a casual fan, you probably know Aroldis Chapman for his explosive fastball.
Chapman threw the 62 fastest pitches in the major leagues last season. To give you a perspective of how much above the rest of the hard throwing pack Chapman is, Giancarlo Stanton is noted for how hard he hits the baseball and he had 16 of the top 50 hardest hit balls last year. Chapman’s average velocity for 2015 was 99.98 miles per hour. MLB.com added a special Chapman filter so he wouldn’t so completely dominate the fastest pitch category.
With a fastball that hard and a motion that has a lot of moving parts, you are going to have control issues. Chapman has walked 4.4 batters per nine innings for his career. On the flip side, he has averaged just 4.8 hits allowed per nine innings. This is why he has a .154 batting average allowed for his career. Even if he doesn’t have a strong second pitch, his fastball is so much quicker than anyone else batters don’t have much of a chance.
When Chapman was struck by a line drive in the face in March of 2014 in a Spring Training game there was some thought it might limit his effectiveness. When he came back from the consequent facial fractures, he was much the same pitcher as before, posting a 2.00 ERA that year, allowing just 21 hits in 54 innings pitched. The Yankees are hoping he can continue his dominant ways at the back of a fearsome bullpen which includes Dellin Betances, and former Red Sox Andrew Miller. The Red Sox are happy to be missing Chapman twice during his suspension. His arrival in New York should bring a new buzz to the rivalry.
Next: 4. Zach Britton
4. Zach Britton
Drafted in the third round of the 2006 draft, Britton followed a similar path to Wade Davis’ career arc. Britton was a starter the first three years of his major league career, posting a 4.86 ERA in that role. Considering his left handedness, it is surprising he was not converted to the bullpen faster.
Since he has been a reliever, Britton’s ERA is 1.72 with a 0.95 WHIP. Though his ERA was under two each of the last two seasons, his FIP (fielding independent pitching), a more accurate measure of effectiveness was 3.13 in 2014. Perhaps it was the increase in strikeouts from 2014 to 2015, but Britton’s FIP fell to 2.01 in 2015. That strikeout rate went from 7.3 to 10.8, which, while not in the league of the more elite closers is a significant jump for one season.
Britton uses a heavy or “bowling ball” sinker coming to the plate at 96 mph to induce an 82% groundball rate as well as a 15 percent swing an miss rate according to analytic website FanGraphs.com. His 1.77 ERA over the last two seasons ranks fifth (of 250) for pitchers with at least 120 innings pitched over that span of time.
While we don’t know where Chapman and Davis might be after next season, Baltimore has control over its closer for another three seasons. Over the last two seasons, Britton has allowed just three earned runs in 20.2 innings vs. Boston (1.31 ERA). Hopefully the Red Sox get some good leads over the Orioles in that time, because if they get to Britton, it is going to be pretty much a guaranteed Orioles victory.
Next: David Robertson
According to baseball-reference.com, Robertson’s nickname is Houdini which must mean his ability to get out of jams is magical. He has displayed an uncanny knack for getting out of jams, though sometimes he was the pitcher who created them. Red Sox fans are quite familiar with Robertson who was the heir apparent to legendary closer Mariano Rivera. Robertson set up Rivera for his last three seasons in New York from 2011-13, posting a career 1.88 ERA in the eighth inning of games acting as a bridge to the ultimate lights out closer.
On a few occasions, Robertson was given the chance to close when Rivera was unavailable or out with injury, but was never given the job for too long. In 2014 after Rivera finally retired, Robertson was given his chance as Yankees closer and he was excellent, just not Rivera. He had a fine year, saving 39 games, posting a 3.08 ERA (2.68 FIP) and 1.06 WHIP, striking out 13.3 batters per nine innings. After more than 15 years with one closer, it seemed that the Yankees were uninterested in giving Robertson closer money despite these excellent stats. Like someone who comes out of a long term relationship, you don’t want to get in another one right away. The Yankees dumped Robertson on the open market in favor of last year’s hottest reliever on the market, Andrew Miller. The Chicago White Sox jumped in with a four year/ $46 million offer that Robertson took with a smile on his face.
Robertson’s first year as the Pale Hose’s closer wasn’t maybe as fantastic as they had hoped. For the most part, he was excellent, posting a 2.60 ERA through the end of August. A three game implosion allowing seven earned runs in three innings (when he blew three of his seven blown saves on the season) caused his ERA to balloon to 3.41 for the season which is far higher than you would like for your elite closer. Still, Robertson posted career bests in WHIP, walks per nine innings and strikeouts to walk ratio. He also struck out 12.2 batters per nine innings, keeping with his career average of 12.
He gives up too many home runs, seven in each of the last two seasons, and he had seven blown saves last season which put him below the less experienced Britton (at least in late inning situations, not as a closer). Still, for that high strikeout rate and experience, he rounds out the top five for American League Closers.
Stay tuned to BoSoxInjection.com as we ramp up to the 2016 season, less than two weeks away. See you next Tuesday for another edition of Power Rankings.