Red Sox fantasy baseball targets

Overvalued

These guys are getting drafted too high in most leagues.

Craig Kimbrel (ESPN: 61, Yahoo: 76)

The Red Sox acquired Kimbrel this winter because he’s one of the most dominant relievers in the game, so there is no reason to think that will change now that he’s in Boston. Calling him overvalued isn’t about not believing in Kimbrel, it’s about a philosophy of not paying for saves. This is why you are unlikely to find any of the top closers on my fantasy roster.

A closer only provides significant production in one category, but saves are fickle in that they are based on opportunity. Kimbrel was 6th in the majors with 39 saves last year and topped 40 in each of the previous four seasons. His shiny ERA and WHIP are appealing, but keep in mind that he doesn’t pitch enough innings for those numbers to move the needle that much and his win and strikeout totals will fall well short of what you’ll find from a starting pitcher in the same round. Give me Sonny Gray, Jon Lester or Adam Wainwright in the 7th or 8th round instead of a closer.

If you play in a roto league with an innings cap then give closers like Kimbrel a slight bump, as his elite K/9 ratio is more valuable when you can’t stream pitchers to pile up high strikeout totals.

Brock Holt (ESPN: unrated, Yahoo: 423)

Neither of the major site rankings overvalue Holt, but this serves as a reminder for Red Sox fans that may be tempted to reach for him based on his selection to the All-Star team last year. He may have been worthy of that selection, but his game doesn’t translate well to fantasy. Holt’s greatest asset is his versatility, which is helpful in fantasy, but not as much as it is in reality.

The Brock Star will produce a solid batting average, but that’s about it. He has no power and doesn’t run very much. The Red Sox are targeting about 450 at-bats for Holt this season and in about that same amount of playing time last year he scored only 56 runs and drove in 45 RBI. He’s not an everyday player for the Red Sox and shouldn’t be for your fantasy team either. Unless you play in a league with deep benches that can afford to stash Holt as an occasional plug in option, it’s best to avoid him on draft day. If an injury opens up more regular playing time then perhaps he could be worth scooping up off the waiver wire.

Next: Sleepers