Red Sox fantasy baseball targets
Exploring the value of Boston Red Sox players in a fantasy baseball draft to determine who to target and who to avoid in your league.
The start of the season is just over two weeks away, making now the ideal time to start holding your fantasy baseball draft.
Fantasy sports has exploded into the mainstream over the past several years, flooding the internet with a variety of sources where you will find tips on strategy, opinions and rankings. Here at BoSox Injection were are primarily focused on players that wear a Red Sox uniform. Boston has many players that warrant a spot on fantasy rosters, but loading up on Red Sox players isn’t always the best idea. Reaching for a player from your favorite team may make the season more fun to follow, but it’s not a winning strategy. If you’re looking for advice on which Red Sox players are worth targeting in your draft, you’ve come to the right place.
There are many different types of fantasy leagues with varying rules, scoring and format. There are head-to-head leagues and rotisserie. Snake drafts and auctions. Shallow 8-team leagues and deeper leagues with 16 or more teams. Some use unorthodox categories or larger rosters. Daily fantasy sites are the new craze these days, which require an entirely different strategy. While the advice in this column can be applied in some ways to just about any type of league, make sure to check the settings of the one that you are in and adjust accordingly.
For the sake of mass appeal, we’re going to focus on a strategy based on standard 10-team leagues with 5×5 scoring (runs, home runs, RBI, batting average, steals, wins, ERA, WHIP, strikeouts, saves). Judgement of value will also be based on rankings from two of the largest providers of fantasy sports, ESPN and Yahoo.
So which Red Sox players do you want to aim for, which should you avoid and who could be that late round sleeper that could be a difference maker down the line? Let’s find out.
Next: Studs
Studs
These players will cost you a high draft pick or a large chunk of your auction budget, but they are worth it.
Mookie Betts (ESPN Rank: 23, Yahoo Rank: 20)
The 23-year old was a top-15 outfielder in fantasy leagues last season and has all the tools to break into the top-10 this year. He contributes in every category and after blasting 18 home runs and swiping 20 bags last year he is on the verge of joining the exclusive 20-20 club, which was achieved by only four hitters last year. He is going to score plenty of runs hitting at the top of a powerful Red Sox lineup, but his role as a lead-off hitter doesn’t prohibit him from contributing RBIs. Betts hit .333 with runners in scoring position last season, so when the bottom of Boston’s deep lineup finds a way to get on base you can bet on Mookie to deliver.
David Price (ESPN: 31, Yahoo: 42)
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This is one where you’ll need to consider the differential between the rankings on these two sites. Given how deep pitching is these days, I personally tend to avoid drafting a starter in the first few rounds and instead focus on beefing up my offense. ESPN ranks Price as the No. 6 starter, which means it may take a late second-round or early third-round pick to get him. That’s too high for my tastes, but if he slips into the fifth-round where Yahoo projects him to go then you have to consider him.
Getting an ace that piles up strikeouts is even more important in fantasy than it is in reality, which makes Price and his career 8.6 strikeout rate all the more appealing. The new anchor of the Red Sox rotation has racked up 200+ strikeouts in four of the last five seasons, including 2014 when he led the league with an astonishing 271 K’s.
Xander Bogaerts (ESPN: 60, Yahoo: 59)
Shortstop has a shallower talent pool than most positions, which provides a tremendous advantage to those that manage to secure one of the great ones. Bogaerts was the runner-up in the American League batting title race last season, so we can bank on him being a top contributor in that category. He’ll also pile up plenty of runs and RBI hitting in the heart of the Red Sox lineup.
The concern with Bogaerts from a fantasy perspective is that he doesn’t hit many home runs or steal enough bases to offset the lack of power. That was true a year ago, but expect to see his home run power get a bit of a boost this year. This spring he has talked about being more aggressive about swinging for the fences when he gets ahead in the count and can expect a fastball. Manager John Farrell has also been experimenting with Bogaerts in the cleanup spot this spring. If he ends up hitting fourth behind David Ortiz instead of in front of him then he may get the green light on the base paths more often.
Next: Undervalued
Undervalued
These players are falling too far in drafts, which could make them a great value pick.
David Ortiz (ESPN: 46, Yahoo: 81)
You won’t find many hitters with a wider range between rankings on various sites than Ortiz. ESPN has him in about the right range, but he’s a bit of a risk at that price given that he’s now 40 years old. However, his ranking on Yahoo makes him a bargain. Ortiz has hit 30+ homers and driven in 100+ RBI in each of the last three seasons, which is production you won’t find easily in the 9th round or later.
There is some concern that Ortiz will start to slow down at his age or be more susceptible to injury, but those risks tend to sink his draft price below where it should be. His role as a DH is another reason why he is under-appreciated in fantasy circles, as some owners don’t want the hassle of drafting a player that limits flexibility by only being eligible to plug into the utility spot. Ortiz is eligible at first base in some leagues after manning the position in a handful of interleague games last year, so check your league settings to see if he played enough games at the position to qualify. If he can be played at first, give his value a slight bump.
Hanley Ramirez (ESPN: 110, Yahoo: 109)
This is a guy that was drafted in the third round in many leagues last year, who now can’t even crack the top-100. Losing SS and 3B eligibility certainly hurt his stock, but one bad season shouldn’t have caused him to drop this much. Ramirez hit 10 home runs last April before a shoulder injury sapped his power and he managed only 9 more the rest of the way. His history suggests that he remains an injury risk, but also shows what he can do when healthy. He has looked good so far this spring, so as long as he can stay out of the trainers room then he should deliver a solid average with 20-25 homers, while also getting the opportunity to drive in a bundle of runs hitting fifth in the Red Sox lineup.
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It’s not quite as much power as you would like from your first baseman, but he is capable of offsetting that with some speed. Hanley doesn’t run like he used to, but if he manages to get on base more often then he can get back to swiping double-digit bases, which was accomplished by only a few first baseman last season. He should also retain his outfield eligibility in most leagues, so that’s an added bonus.
Ramirez may not be an All-Star caliber hitter anymore and shouldn’t be drafted as one, but if he falls outside of Round 10 then there is a good chance of his delivering a strong return on investment with a bounce-back season.
Next: Overvalued
Overvalued
These guys are getting drafted too high in most leagues.
Craig Kimbrel (ESPN: 61, Yahoo: 76)
The Red Sox acquired Kimbrel this winter because he’s one of the most dominant relievers in the game, so there is no reason to think that will change now that he’s in Boston. Calling him overvalued isn’t about not believing in Kimbrel, it’s about a philosophy of not paying for saves. This is why you are unlikely to find any of the top closers on my fantasy roster.
A closer only provides significant production in one category, but saves are fickle in that they are based on opportunity. Kimbrel was 6th in the majors with 39 saves last year and topped 40 in each of the previous four seasons. His shiny ERA and WHIP are appealing, but keep in mind that he doesn’t pitch enough innings for those numbers to move the needle that much and his win and strikeout totals will fall well short of what you’ll find from a starting pitcher in the same round. Give me Sonny Gray, Jon Lester or Adam Wainwright in the 7th or 8th round instead of a closer.
If you play in a roto league with an innings cap then give closers like Kimbrel a slight bump, as his elite K/9 ratio is more valuable when you can’t stream pitchers to pile up high strikeout totals.
Brock Holt (ESPN: unrated, Yahoo: 423)
Neither of the major site rankings overvalue Holt, but this serves as a reminder for Red Sox fans that may be tempted to reach for him based on his selection to the All-Star team last year. He may have been worthy of that selection, but his game doesn’t translate well to fantasy. Holt’s greatest asset is his versatility, which is helpful in fantasy, but not as much as it is in reality.
The Brock Star will produce a solid batting average, but that’s about it. He has no power and doesn’t run very much. The Red Sox are targeting about 450 at-bats for Holt this season and in about that same amount of playing time last year he scored only 56 runs and drove in 45 RBI. He’s not an everyday player for the Red Sox and shouldn’t be for your fantasy team either. Unless you play in a league with deep benches that can afford to stash Holt as an occasional plug in option, it’s best to avoid him on draft day. If an injury opens up more regular playing time then perhaps he could be worth scooping up off the waiver wire.
Next: Sleepers
Sleepers
Target these guys late in the draft as potential lottery tickets that could pay off.
Eduardo Rodriguez (ESPN: 247, Yahoo: 239)
Rodriguez has the talent to develop into a solid No. 2 starter for the Red Sox, but he’s being drafted as a borderline starter in fantasy leagues. His 3.85 ERA and 1.29 WHIP were decent as a rookie last year, but those numbers are skewed by a couple of meltdowns that occurred when the Red Sox believe he was tipping his pitches. With that issue now corrected, Rodriguez is primed for a breakout season. The 22-year old delivered a spectacular 2.07 ERA over his final 7 starts and will look to carry the momentum of that strong finish into this season.
Rodriguez is currently dealing with a knee issue that could sideline him to start the season, but it’s not expected to be serious and he could join the rotation before the end of April. News that he may start the year on the DL could scare owners away during your draft, but it shouldn’t. The Red Sox will want to be cautious with his innings given that this is his first full season in the big leagues, so a delayed start may actually be beneficial, as it helps ensure he won’t get shut down early when owners need him for the fantasy playoffs.
Travis Shaw (ESPN: Unranked, Yahoo: 1009)
Need a flyer to take in the last round? Shaw could be one to look at. He’s been tearing the cover off the ball all spring, prompting Farrell to reveal that Shaw may be in line to see regular at-bats this spring. The comments are being taken as a not so subtle warning to Pablo Sandoval that he may have some competition for his starting spot at third base. Whether or not Shaw poses a serious threat or if the manger is merely trying to motivate the Panda remains to be seen. If Shaw were to win the starting job then he would be worth a spot on fantasy rosters. Last season he hit 13 home runs in only 226 at-bats and could easily surpass 20 homers this season if he gets regular playing time. Hard to find that kind of power late in the draft.
Next: Busts
Busts
These players are bound to disappoint and should be avoided in most leagues.
Pablo Sandoval (ESPN: Unranked, Yahoo: 237)
We just mentioned that Shaw has a shot to steal the third base job, which means there has to be some concern that Sandoval could lose it. If Sandoval isn’t starting for the Red Sox then there’s no reason to have him on your roster.
Even if Sandoval does hang on to the job, don’t expect much. He has seen his OPS drop in four straight seasons since 2011, which is the last time he hit 20+ homers. He could hit 10-15 home runs, but that’s not enough from a third baseman unless you are in a very deep league. He doesn’t make up for it with speed or a high batting average and isn’t likely to pile up runs or RBI hitting no higher than sixth in the Red Sox lineup.
Clay Buchholz (ESPN: 262, Yahoo: 218)
Buchholz is the ultimate wild card from this Red Sox pitching staff. He’s shown in the past that he’s capable of being one of the league’s most dominant pitchers, but he is also prone to meltdowns where it seems he can’t get his head in the game. He has the potential to return great value from where he’s being drafted, but he comes with an enormous amount of risk.
Even if Buchholz has another great season, you have to wonder how long it will last. He’s never come close to 200 innings in a season and is a safe bet to hit the disabled list at some point in the season. He could pay off with a late round pick, but isn’t worth the headaches.