Race to 25: Update on the Red Sox Roster Battles

As the Red Sox opened camp, questions remained regarding who would make up the roster and what roles they would fill, resulting in multiple roster battles.

As the Red Sox opened up Spring Training, many questions remained regarding who would fill out the 25-man roster and what role each player would have on the team come Opening Day, which resulted in a camp full of competition.  This is the second edition of the weekly update on the progress of those roster battles.  Go check out the first edition and second edition.

The pitcher and position battles we are currently tracking in camp include:

1. The Starting Rotation
2. The Bullpen
3. The Starting Lineup
4. The Bench.

As for every one of the roster battles this spring, you must take into account that John Farrell‘s seat could not be hotter.  There is a reason why the Red Sox made the decision to pay bench coach Torey Lovullo a manager’s salary.  Therefore, although it is only Spring Training , John Farrell is going to consider everything given the fact the decisions he makes on the above-referenced competitions may be his last if he gets them wrong.

STARTING ROTATION

Due to an injury from earlier this spring, Eduardo Rodriguez will start the season on the disabled list.  As a result, a competition has begun for the right to start in Rodriguez’s place until he is healthy enough to return.

The Candidates

1. Steven Wright
2. Henry Owens
3. Roenis Elias

The State of the Competition

Wright entered this week ahead of his competition.  He made his third appearance this spring on Wednesday, pitching 2.2 innings against the Twins.  Wright surrendered five hits and gave up one run, while striking out two and walking two.  Overall, Wright has pitched 9.2 innings this spring and given up 13 hits and four walks.  He has also struck out four batters.  His spring ERA is 2.79 and opponents are hitting .317 off him.

Owens followed up his poor start last week against the Marlins with an even worse start this week against the Orioles.  This time, he completed 2.2 innings and gave up four earned runs.  Owens gave up four hits, including one HR, and hit two batters.  The one bright spot in his afternoon was striking out four batters, but overall this was Owens’ second straight start where he gave up four runs and could not finish three innings.

Elias made his third appearance and second start of the spring on Friday night against the Rays.  He looked strong, giving up no earned runs in four innings of work, and while the Rays tallied five hits against him, he issued no walks and struck out five batters.  Overall, Elias has pitched 8.2 innings this spring, given up 14 hits, three walks and struck out 10 batters.  His ERA stands at 6.23.

The Leaderboard

1. Steven Wright
2. Roenis Elias
3. Henry Owens

As of today, the Opening Day starting rotation will be:

1. David Price
2. Clay Buchholz
3. Rick Porcello
4. Joe Kelly
5. Steven Wright

The favorite to make the Opening Day rotation remains Wright after three weeks, but his lead is ever so slight.  There is no doubt that Elias has the bigger upside and better track record, but I remain skeptical of Farrell’s claim that he will not consider depth when making this decision.  The fact remains that Eduardo Rodriguez is going to return at some point in April most likely, at which point whoever wins this battle is going to be taken out of the rotation.  Therefore, I find it hard to believe the Red Sox will effectively release Wright, who is out of options, and diminish their depth and roster options in order to give Elias three to four starts in April, unless Elias is by far and away better this spring.  Through three weeks, Elias has not been better.  In fact, he has arguably been worse, at least with regard to results.

Next: The Bullpen

THE BULLPEN

LHP Specialist

The Red Sox have two spots in their bullpen for left-handed pitchers.  The first spot will be filled by Robbie Ross, who is capable of getting batters out on both sides of the plate and can be relied on for three outs regardless of who is due up for the opposing team.  The second spot tends to be filled by a specialist; someone you can rely on in a high-leverage situation to get a left-handed batter out.

Entering Spring Training, the favorite for the second spot was Tommy Layne.  As stated last week, the surprise of the spring has been the lack of competition on the left side of the bullpen, but the Red Sox are clearly extremely confident in the Ross-Layne combination.

If anyone was going to compete for the specialist spot, it was Roenis Elias, but given the struggles and injuries of many thought to compile the Red Sox rotation depth, it is likely the team is going to want Elias to enter the season as a starter, whether that be in Boston or Pawtucket.  Therefore, we can consider this competition closed, with Layne the declared winner.

The Candidates

1. Tommy Layne
2. Roenis Elias

The State of the Competition

Layne has won the spot and deservedly so.  He has pitched six innings this spring and only given up four hits and one run.  He has a 1.50 ERA and opposing hitters are batting only .190 against him.

The fifth and final RHP slot

There are five spots available for right-handed relievers in the Red Sox bullpen.  Assuming health, the first four are going to Craig Kimbrel, Koji Uehara, Carson Smith and Junichi Tazawa, leaving one spot available.  John Farrell has gone on record indicating he would like the fifth spot to be filled by someone who can pitch multiple innings.

The Candidates

1. Steven Wright
2. Matt Barnes

The State of the Competition

As discussed earlier, Wright has pitched 9.2 innings this spring and given up 13 hits and four walks.  He has also struck out four batters.  His spring ERA is 2.79, but opponents are hitting .317 against him.

As for Barnes, he continued his impressive spring during the third week of action.  Over seven innings of work, Barnes has yet to give up a run and has only allowed five men to reach base (four hits, one walk).  He has also struck out eight batters and opponents are only hitting .174 against him.  Barnes has also demonstrated his dominance over multiple innings, which would address Farrell’s concern about having someone who can get more than three outs in one outing.

The Leaderboard

1. Matt Barnes
2. Steven Wright

Next: The Starting Lineup

THE STARTING LINEUP

Third Base

Although Pablo Sandoval is almost surely going to open the season as the team’s starting third baseman, his poor play, along with Shaw’s continued dominance at the plate, is making that fact harder and harder for John Farrell and the Red Sox to live with.  Is there a chance the question of who should start at third is revisited should their current spring performances continue through the rest of March?  Yes.

The Candidates

1. Pablo Sandoval
2. Travis Shaw

The State of the Competition

In 11 spring starts, Sandoval is batting .192 (5-for-26) overall.  The good news he has been better this week, batting .300 over 10 at-bats.  Sandoval has played 59 innings at third base, and has four errors on 17 defensive chances, giving him a .765 fielding percentage this spring, which is worst on the team.

In 11 spring starts, Shaw is batting .419 (13 for 31), with six runs, two doubles, two HRs, nine RBIs, two walks and four strikeouts.  In terms of defense, Shaw has played 52 innings in the infield, most of which have come at third base, and he is 23 for 23 on defensive chances for a 1.000 fielding percentage.

The Leaderboard

Assuming this were a real competition, where the best player wins the job:

1. Travis Shaw
2. Pablo Sandoval

In reality:

1. Pablo Sandoval
2. Travis Shaw

Next: The Bench

As of this morning (i.e. subject to change), based on the previous slides and the various leaders of each competition, I project the Red Sox Opening Day 25-man roster to be as follows:

OPENING DAY ROSTER

Starting Rotation (5)

1. David Price
2. Clay Buccholz
3. Rick Porcello
4. Joe Kelly
5. Steven Wright

Bullpen (7)

1. Craig Kimbrel (RHP)
2. Koji Uehara (RHP)
3. Carson Smith (RHP)
4. Junichi Tazawa (RHP)
5. Matt Barnes (RHP)
6. Robbie Ross (LHP)
7. Tommy Layne (LHP)

Starting Lineup (9)

1. Mookie Betts CF
2. Dustin Pedroia 2B
3. Xander Bogaerts SS
4. David Ortiz DH
5. Hanley Ramirez 1B
6. Pablo Sandoval 3B
7. Rusney Castillo LF
8. Blake Swihart C
9. Jackie Bradley CF

Bench (4)

1. Brock Holt 2B/SS/3B/OF
2. Travis Shaw 1B/3B
3. Chris Young LF/RF
4. Ryan Hanigan C