Red Sox Rankings: Top 5 Outfielders in the American League East
Sticking with the American League East theme, let’s take a look at the top five outfielders in the division, headed by a guy we hope is in the Red Sox outfield for the next decade
This manner of ranking has a bit more room to choose. Rather than just ranking one guy from each team, we can choose more than one player from a team.
One disclaimer to note. The newly incredibly wealthy Chris Davis is listed in fantasy rankings as an outfielder by virtue of playing 30 games (29 starts) in right field for the Orioles last season. This was his first outfield appearance in three years. He also has started games at third base in his career. For purposes of this list, he is not an outfielder. Let’s say the ranking is for players who played 100 games in the outfield last season.
Another disclaimer is making the list for all outfielders. Our #1 guy could be playing both center and right field this season, not to mention one of the other choices as well who will be playing mostly left field, but could see time in the other outfield spots as well. This is intended for overall effectiveness on both sides of the ball, mainly offense, so my apologies Jackie Bradley, Jr.. This defensive metric will play a part in my choices for #4 and #5 for overall value to their team. The newer analytic WAR (Wins Against Replacement) was a big factor in these choices. Fantasy ratings don’t make the best player on the field, overall value does, which is reflected in this list.
So, let’s talk some outfielders!!
Next: 1. Mookie Betts
1. Mookie Betts
This young bowling champion burst onto Red Sox fans’ radar with his spectacular 2014 season posting a .994 OPS at AA Portland as a second baseman, then as a center fielder since he is blocked at second base, earning a promotion to AAA Pawtucket where he continued to rake. His .920 OPS there prompted the Red Sox to call him up to the majors, where he continued to hit. His .820 OPS for the season didn’t tell the whole story. His OPS rose each month he was in the majors in 2014 to an .849 clip in September (.760 is about league average).
2015 was another difficult year for the Red Sox but another coming out party for Betts, who started to find his power stroke, pounding 18 homers on the season, including five in the month of September. For a player only five foot nine inches, he hits the ball very hard and very deep to left field, a great quality for someone playing at Fenway Park with the Green Monster only 310 feet away (or less if you believe some of the players).
Probably the most exciting statistic for Betts in 2015 was that his OPS rose to .998 for the month of September. Stats for the end of the season should be taken with a grain of salt since many teams (including the Red Sox last year, unfortunately) are just playing out the string and will take a look at young pitchers perhaps not ready for the majors. On the flip side, there are teams vying for the playoffs and aren’t just giving runs up in droves, so the success in September is encouraging also for the fact that the 23-year old Betts had plenty in the tank at the end of the season.
The hot streak of Bradley in August led the Red Sox to re-think their outfield alignment given Bradley Jr.’s elite defensive skills as a center fielder, so Betts seems ticketed for right field for next season. While it is certainly a challenge to learn a new position at the major league level, by all accounts Betts is perpetually asking questions of the veterans, showing he is a quick learner and avid to learn the intricacies of the right field position as well as the major league game in general.
Next: 2. Jose Bautista
The bat flipping slugger is a player Red Sox fans are certainly very familiar with, playing in the division since 2008. For a guy who had hit no more than 16 homers in a season, then hit 54 homers in 2009, his rise to stardom has been nothing short of incredible. In the National League his OPS was .733. In the American League it has ballooned to .916
His Fenway Park numbers are off the chart in terms of OPS, standing at .965 in 54 games there in his career. He has clouted 21 homers in those games in Boston. There have been rumors that he could be considering a jump to the Red Sox when his contract expires at the end of this season. While this is an intriguing possibility, the chances that his free agent deal, sure to be well north of $100, will never happen in Boston due to his age (36 at the end of this season).
The six time All-Star is not the most spectacular fielder, but with a WAR (wins above replacement) of 36.6 in his eight seasons in Toronto, does it really need to be? That works out to be about 4.5 WAR per season. He will have to have a big year this year to cement his value as a free agent, quieting concerns about how well he might age in his last big contract. JoeyBats as he is known throughout baseball would be a flashy free agent signing a year from now, but if he will be worth it is far from certain.
Next: 3. Adam Jones
3. Adam Jones
The four-time Gold Glove award winner and four-time All-Star was one of the greatest trade steals of all time. Jones came over from the Seattle Mariners with four other players for starter Erik Bedard in 2008. Bedard won all of 15 games for Seattle and Jones has become one of the top players in the majors. While suffering from back issues late in the season, Jones still managed to put up numbers. 2015 marked his fifth straight year of at least 25 home runs and 80 runs batted in (27 and 82) while posting a .782 OPS (109 OPS+). All of these stats are in line with his career averages.
Though one can’t measure leadership by any metric, it is doubtful the Orioles would have had two playoff appearances in the last four seasons (after none in 16 years) if not for the steady center fielder. One stat surely haunting Jones at this stage in his career is his .151/.207/.208 batting line in 58 postseason plate appearances. At the age of 30, once you have secured that big contract, you have to start thinking about legacy. Winning championships is at the top of that list. With this poor postseason performance, Jones still has a lot to prove in that area.
Back injuries are among the toughest to play with due to the torque of a baseball swing. Jones also plays a physically demanding position (center field), so this could be his last appearance at the top of player rankings unless he can return to the bigger stats that earned him that big contract in the first place. It is possible as he gets into his 30s, the Orioles might try to use him in a less physical position to help boost his offensive effectiveness. Even without too much of a bounceback, Jones is still one of the top players in the game and deserves his position on this list.
Next: 4. Kevin Kiermaier
The Gold Glove is not always the best measure of fielding excellence. Rafael Palmeiro won for first base in a year in which he played only 28 games there. Kiermaier’s win of the 2015 Gold Glove was far from a fluke. He was one of the finest centerfielders in the entire major leagues. Of his 7.3 WAR on the season, five of that total was just on the defensive side of the ball. Kiermaier was second to Mike Trout in most putouts by a centerfielder in the American League. He does not yet have Trout’s penchant for over the wall highlight reel catches but he still makes his share of diving grabs. Kiermaier’s defensive performance was so strong that his Gold Glove win ended Jones three year run of wins, a difficult thing to do for an award that can tend to go repeatedly to one player.
The On-base percentage statistic is not a strong area for Kiermaier, as he only drew 24 walks on the season in 535 plate appearances. Despite a .263 batting average, his OBP was just .298. With a slugging percentage of .420, this equaled just a .718 OPS which is less than league average (OPS+ 97). Clearly the man can run once he reaches the bases, stealing 18 bases as well as legging out 12 triples on the season. This is part of the reason for his defensive prowess. He just runs so many balls down in the outfield that other players can’t get to.
The most remarkable thing about Kiermaier is that he was not selected until the 31st round of the 2010 draft. It is unusual to see someone who was drafted that low make it to the major leagues. One has to admire the drive of a player that can overcome such long odds to make it to the majors. What is even more surprising is the success he has had coming that far to the majors, to win a Gold Glove, not just make it as a marginal player. Turning 26 this season, Red Sox fans should be seeing Kiermaier for years to come speeding around the bases and making highlight show catches in the outfield.
Next: 5. Kevin Pillar
5. Kevin Pillar
This was a hard choice. First of all, because there are no Yankees on this list and second because the Yankees’ Brett Gardner is an All-Star. Though not possessing Gardner’s body of work over his six full years in the majors, today Pillar is a better overall outfielder than Gardner. There are many stats both old and new to support this assertion.
Gardner has the advantage in some of the offensive numbers. Gardner’s .742 OPS and 16 homers exceed Pillar’s .713 and 12 in those categories. The areas that support Pillar over Gardner are on the defensive side. Pillar’s defensive runs saved totaled 19 for the season, while Gardner’s came in at zero. The Blue Jays outfielder recorded 440 putouts which not only led the major leagues but was the most in the majors since 2009 when Franklin Gutierrez recorded 445. The putouts were also the 6th highest in the majors since 1999. Red Sox fans can attest to a number of tremendous catches they saw the Blue Jays centerfielder make last season.
Due to his defensive wizardry, Pillar’s WAR was 5 last season while Gardner’s came in at 3.3. Another candidate for this last spot was former Red Sox outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury, who was limited to 111 games last season for the Yankees. He posted just a 1.9 WAR, down from 5.7 in 2013. His .663 OPS falls well below Pillar’s number. Ellsbury had all of 1 defensive run saved last season.
Next: Could the Red Sox look into Justin Morneau?
Like Kiermaier, Pillar came a long way to make it to the majors, drafted in the 32nd round of the 2011 out of Cal State Dominguez Hills. Another alumnus of that university was the beautifully named 14 year major league veteran Eric Plunk (1986-99), who hit 32 batters in his career. You know you were wondering how many he plunked.
Stay tuned to BoSoxInjection.com for your weekly rankings as we ramp up to the 2016 season in just a few short weeks.