Red Sox over/under predictions
The BoSox Injection staff shares their thoughts on if the Boston Red Sox will go over or under our predictions for the 2016 season.
What are your expectations for the Boston Red Sox in 2016?
Fans have an idea of the goals that they hope their team and its players can achieve. Some are more optimistic than others, while some aren’t shy about expressing their extreme pessimism over the outlook of certain players or the team in general.
The BoSox Injection staff has come up with a list of goals for this season and shared their thoughts about if we can expect them to go over those targets or fall under them. We start with perhaps the most important target of them all, which relates to where the Red Sox may end up in the standings this season.
Red Sox – 88 Wins
Sean Penney: Over – It’s going to take 90+ wins to top a competitive AL East division, which is a spot the Red Sox should challenge for. Even if they fall short of the division crown they will still be in the mix for a Wild Card spot, which could take around 88 wins.
Jorge Camargo: Over – I think the Red Sox have everything to at least win 90 games, but no more than that.
Drew Peabody: Over – Price will be the ace they are paying him to be and the bullpen will be lights out.
Rick McNair: Over – Look for 92 wins and a spot in the playoffs.
Next: Starting Rotation
David Price – 18 Wins
Sean: Over – Not by much, but he could make a run at a 20-win season. Cy Young award winner Dallas Keuchel was the only AL pitcher to win 20 last year, so it’s a lofty goal. With run support from one of the top lineups in the game and a deep bullpen that may be the strongest Price has ever had behind him, everything is in place for the new Red Sox ace to top 18 wins for the third time in his career and first time since 2012.
Jorge: Under – Even though he’s been an excellent pitcher at Fenway, it’s his first year on the Red Sox and a new team always changes the player.
Drew: Push – Neither over or under. That is a lot of wins in this day and age and I think 18 will be as high as he goes.
Rick – Over – you pay for those wins.
David Price – 220 strikeouts
Sean: Over – The Red Sox brought in Price to anchor their rotation because they needed a pitcher that can go deep into games. Even with a revamped bullpen to rely on, they still need their No. 1 starter to be a workhorse because the staff behind him can’t be counted on to pile up innings. Price has a career 8.6 K/9 rate and struck out over 9 batters per nine innings last season. If his innings are once again over 220 then expect his strikeouts to be in that same range.
Drew: Under – That isn’t to say he won’t be effective but he is nothing if not smart about how many pitches he has to throw. If he knows he has a strong defense behind him, especially in the outfield, he will let the batters hit the ball with the confidence that his fielders will go get it. He has only had 220 strikeouts twice in his career so that number is far from a lock and why the under is my prediction.
Rick: Over – Only thing that could cost him is a strong bullpen.
Clay Buchholz – 140 Innings Pitched
Sean: Over – Buchholz has failed to even reach 120 innings in two of the last three seasons, but you have to enter the season expecting our No. 2 starter to give you more than that. He’ll never be a 200+ inning workhorse, but 25 starts and 180 innings seems reasonable.
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Jorge: Under – He has never pitched 200 innings and if he’s healthy and “decent” at the deadline, I’m sure he’ll be traded. Maybe he can finish 2016 pitching more than 140 innings, but half of those won’t be with the Red Sox.
Drew: Over – For some reason, the even years are ones in which the injury prone occasional ace is able to stay mostly healthy and pitch over 170 innings. He is in another contract year with the Red Sox not obligated to pick up his option again. As much as anything, he appears focused on health this Spring. He doesn’t have the pressure of being the ace, so I predict he will go out and have at least a solid year of 190 plus innings.
Rick: Over – What he does in those innings is another story.
Rick Porcello – 4.50 ERA
Sean: Under – Porcello showed drastic improvement following his return from the disabled list late in the season and will look to carry that momentum into this season. He’s never going to live up to that ridiculous contract that pays him like an ace, but the Red Sox can live with it if he settles into a role as a middle of the rotation starter. Expect an ERA closer to 4.00 rather than one that borders on 5.00.
Jorge: Under – I think that the injury that placed him on the DL last season was the main reason for his failure during the first half of the season. Towards the end of the season, he pitched decently enough to show that he can be a solid number 2 or 3 and with David Price being the ace and having him as a mentor (again), he can only improve.
Drew: Under – He had a 3.53 ERA in the second half last year. It isn’t as good as what someone making the kind of money he makes should be doing but it was an improvement on his 5.90 first half mark. As with Buchholz, there will be less pressure on him to be like the number 1 his salary might reflect, so he will be more comfortable. ERA in the low 4’s, 4.25 or under.
Rick: Under – You will see the 2014 version of Porcello.
Next: Home Runs
Mookie Betts – 20 Home Runs
Sean: Over – He had 18 last year at the age of 22, so it’s not much of a leap to expect him to crack 20. The Red Sox will need a power boost from Betts now that he’s been pushed to a corner outfield spot.
Jorge: Over – Betts showed his power the second half of 2015 and that’s only a sign of things to come. He can easily be a 30 HR guy with that swing playing 81 games in Fenway.
Drew: Over – He is going to get better as he becomes more familiar with the pitchers and hammers inside mistakes, which he will do often at Fenway.
Rick: Over – He will be in the All-Star game as a starter.
Hanley Ramirez – 20 Home runs
Sean: Over – He finished with 19 a year ago in only 105 games, so he should breeze past 20 as long as he can stay healthy. He hit 10 home runs last April before running into a wall in left field, sapping his power for weeks. Ramirez isn’t the 30-homer slugger that his contract suggests he should be, having only topped that mark once in his career, but he should hit in the mid-20’s.
Jorge: Under – Under: Playing a new position (again) will be a challenge for him that I believe will impact on his offense (again). If his defense is as horrible as it was last year and Travis Shaw takes over, he won’t be able to get to 20 HRs.
Drew: Over – He will be more comfortable even at the new position and mash at least 30 in that lineup.
Rick: Over – If he plays 140 games he will touch 30.
Xander Bogaerts – 15 Home Runs
Sean: Over – There is still more untapped power potential in his bat. He hit 12 homers two years ago and should easily return to double-digits this season. It may come at the expense of his batting average, but if Bogaerts can develop into a 20 home run hitter that can still flirt with a .300 average, the Red Sox will gladly take that from their young shortstop.
Jorge: Under – Last season was nothing but phenomenal for Bogaerts and the fact that he almost won a batting title in his second full-season at the Major League level shows the talent that he has. However, I would love to see some power from him but considering what we’ve seen from him, he doesn’t strike me as the home run hitter guy.
Drew: Over – This will be the year his power stroke comes through. With a better team, it will increase his confidence and he will start to pound balls over the Monster. His 3 homers in September of last year show that power is about to come out more prominently next season. 20 homers for Xander next season.
Rick: Under – His batting average will stay around .300. Might get 45 doubles.
David Ortiz – Over 30 Home Runs and 100 RBI
Sean: Under – Ortiz has met or exceeded these thresholds in each of the last three seasons and 9 of his 13 seasons in Boston, so you almost expect him to keep putting up these lofty totals. Then you realize that Big Papi is now 40 years old and it’s been nearly 30 years since we’ve seen a player that age blast 30+ homers or drive in 100+ runs, let alone hit both of those marks. He also may need to be rested more often this season, which will cut into his totals. Ortiz will still have a solid season, but at his age can’t be counted on to carry the lineup the way he has in the past.
Drew: Over – I think the big man will be supremely motivated to go out with a flourish and he will be able to stay healthy and get those milestones in his final season, or at worst one of those numbers if not the other.
Rick: Over – Every year he seems to churn out numbers. I may get some of those “Vitamins.”
Next: Games Played
David Ortiz – 120 Games Played
Sean: Over – He’ll get more rest than usual now that he’s on the wrong side of 40, but as long as he stays healthy he should reach 120 games. He has played in at least 137 games in each of the last three seasons and his role as the DH helps conserve his body over the grueling schedule. Don’t expect to see him manning first base during inter-league games as often as he used to, especially if Hanley Ramirez is hitting well. As Ortiz makes his farewell tour he will want to ensure that he plays in front of the Fenway crowd as often as he can, as well as getting at least one start in every park the Red Sox visit.
Drew: Over – He has gone beneath that number only once in the past 15 season so he will be able to manage his pain in his sore Achilles tendons and play about 135 games this season, including only the bare minimum at first base, unlike last year when he had to fill in more there out of necessity.
Rick: Over – He’s a DH! Only issue is if he suffers a hamstring pull during a home run trot.
Dustin Pedroia – 120 Games Played
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Sean: Over – He only played in 93 games last season, but that was in part due to attempting to come back too early from a hamstring issue, resulting in a setback that put him back on the shelf. The Red Sox won’t make that mistake with him again. He’s dealt with a variety of injuries over the last few years, but none have been chronic issues that we need to be concerned about popping up again.
Drew: Over – When you have Brock Holt on the bench no one should be getting gassed from too many games. This rest should keep Pedroia healthy and easily able to play over 120 games.
Rick: Over – Sees the competition on the horizon
Christian Vazquez – 75 Games Played
Sean: Under – He’s almost certain to begin the season in Pawtucket as he works his way back from a lost season. Blake Swihart is going to be the primary catcher for the Red Sox and it does them no good to let Vazquez sit on the bench all season. Any injury could change this outlook, as could a mid-season trade that may ship Ryan Hanigan out of town. Aside from that, hard to see enough playing time being available at the big league level to warrant calling him up until the second half of the season.
Drew: Under – With Hanigan still under contract and Swihart with the experience he had last year and second half success (.303/.353/.452), my call is that despite his defensive wizardry, he will be starting the year at AAA where he will be able to get regular at-bats and get his feet under him before he is entrusted with major workload at the big league level.
Rick: Under – Will spend 50 games in Pawtucket.
Next: Bullpen
Craig Kimbrel – 40 Saves
Sean – Over – Last season was the first time since he became a full-time closer in 2011 that Kimbrel fell short of 40 saves, but that was when he pitched for a San Diego Padres team that didn’t offer many opportunities. The Red Sox should score plenty of runs and have a deep bullpen that will help bridge the gap between any lead the starters manage to get until Kimbrel comes in to finish off the 9th.
Drew: Over – Tom Gordon‘s team record of 51 saves could be in jeopardy if the Red Sox have a big year in 2016-18 when Kimbrel is under team control. His supposed “slump” last year was likely because he switched teams just as the season was starting. Other factors of a “bloated” 2.54 ERA last year, he gave up a .414 BABIP with RISP last season compared with .283 career. In the second half, his batting average against was .120. Career OPS allowed vs. AL is .399. He is going to dominate.
Rick: Under – Keith Foulke like year (2004) with more K’s.
Koji Uehara – 40 Innings Pitched
Sean: Under – He barely cracked 40 innings last year and the Red Sox will need to be more cautious with his workload now that he’ll be turning 41 years old. The added depth in the bullpen will allow Farrell to be conservative with his usage of Uehara. His age and recent injury history suggests a stint on the DL at some point this season can be expected, even if it’s only to let him rest for a couple weeks to recharge his batteries.
Drew: Over – This will be a close one if only because everything you expect to go your way isn’t going to go your way and at some point someone will disappoint. He will be 41 in April so a breakdown could be coming. With the depth of the bullpen with the addition of Kimbrel and Carson Smith, he won’t be as leaned on as he was in past years. The 8th inning will be his and my bet is he will excel in that role and put up at least 55 innings.
Rick: Over – Following Uehara’s 87 MPH fastball, Kimbrel will look like Aroldis Chapman.
Next: Pablo and Hanley
Pablo Sandoval – .250 batting average
Sean: Over – Sandoval was under this mark last year, but that was in part due to hitting an anemic .197 against lefties. Now that his knee is healthy enough for him to return to switch-hitting, those numbers should improve, boosting his overall average back toward respectability.
Drew: Over – This is a .288 lifetime average guy. He had a poor year last year adjusting to a new team as one of the focal points. Attention will be less on his with the new guys Price and Kimbrel and he will be able to get enough rest to stay fresh and avoid the .210 second half batting average from last year. .275 or higher for him in 2016.
Rick: Over – But it will be down in Pawtucket with Allen Craig.
Hanley Ramirez – 15 errors
Sean: Under – Last year Jose Abreu led all American League first baseman with 11 errors and it would not be a surprise if Ramirez approaches that territory, but it won’t be too much worse. For one thing, if Ramirez is actually that bad defensively then he’ll start to lose playing time to Travis Shaw. Also, in order to be credited with an error you actually have to make contact with the ball, while Ramirez is more likely to watch grounders roll by him. His history as an infielder will make the transition easier than what we saw last year with the failed experiment in left field and he knows how to reel in a ground ball as long as it’s hit relatively nearby. Where he’ll struggle initially is receiving throws to first base – his footwork near the bag, picking balls out of the dirt and stretching out to meet the throw instead of waiting for it to get to him.
Drew: Under – Hanley will surprise people with his sure-handedness. His range will not likely be the greatest so he probably won’t get to enough balls to make errors. He has worked at it and he will make a competent, if not spectacular first baseman. 10 errors for Hanley next season.
Rick: Under – Why he will win a Gold Glove!
Next: Bench at-bats
Brock Holt – 450 at-bats
Sean: Under – 450 is in the range that manager John Farrell is aiming for and the Red Sox would prefer that their super-utility man not exceed that amount. Holt slumped late in the season in each of the past two years, so easing his workload would help keep him fresh for the stretch run. The Red Sox have a deeper bench this season and should be able to keep Holt primarily in the infield. Barring injury that sidelines a starter for significant time, 400-450 at-bats sounds about right.
Drew: Under – This will be a close one. If we are talking plate appearances, they were 492 and 509 in the last two years in which he had to cover for injuries as well as many sub-par performances from regulars. With the emergence of Travis Shaw and the signing of Chris Young as outfield depth, this will limit the need to use Holt every day. 400 plate appearances for Holt next season.
Rick: Under – If Holt gets over 450 AB’s the Red Sox are in a world of trouble.
Chris Young – 200 at-bats
Sean: Over – Taking the over based on his contract and assured role as the 4th outfielder, but should he actually get that much playing time? His extreme splits show that he’s only effective against left-handed pitching and should be benched against right-handers. Last year no Red Sox hitter saw 170+ at-bats against left-handed pitching, so it’s hard to see Young getting over 200 if he plays exclusively against lefties. Unfortunately Farrell will feel compelled to use him more often than that, even if he shouldn’t.
Drew: Over – They aren’t paying him $6.5 million to get less than that number. Young has been over 350 plate appearances each of the last 4 seasons as a part time player covering all three outfield positions. My guess he will play more at home than on the road due to his ability to pull the ball over the Monster, but he should easily make 200 at-bats for the season.
Rick: Over – Over – There will be some mix and match with Rusney Castillo and Jackie Bradley, Jr.
Travis Shaw – 300 at-bats
Sean: Under – Does he deserve more playing time? Absolutely, as long as he hits the way he did last year. The problem is that we don’t know that he can keep up that production over a larger sample given that his minor league track record doesn’t suggest he would turn out to be this good. He’s also blocked at first and third base by Ramirez and Sandoval, so one of them would need to hit the DL or be a complete train wreck for Shaw to take the starting spot away from them. He’ll see some starts in order to let those veterans rest, but at least some of those opportunities will go to Holt. Shaw may be better off seeing some time in Pawtucket to get steady at-bats until a larger role in Boston is available.
Drew: Under – There really isn’t a steady position for him and the Red Sox already have Brock Holt as their super-utility guy. Shaw can play both first and third base but with Sandoval and Hanley having such big contracts you can’t be sitting them too often. The issue might come up whether he might be better served for his development being at AAA at some point despite his hot spring training. As we saw from JBJ in 2013 a hot Spring can be just a mirage. My guess is for something around 250 plate appearances in the majors next season.
Rick: Over – Boston’s third baseman for the rest of the decade.