Red Sox over/under predictions
By Sean Penney
Craig Kimbrel – 40 Saves
Sean – Over – Last season was the first time since he became a full-time closer in 2011 that Kimbrel fell short of 40 saves, but that was when he pitched for a San Diego Padres team that didn’t offer many opportunities. The Red Sox should score plenty of runs and have a deep bullpen that will help bridge the gap between any lead the starters manage to get until Kimbrel comes in to finish off the 9th.
Drew: Over – Tom Gordon‘s team record of 51 saves could be in jeopardy if the Red Sox have a big year in 2016-18 when Kimbrel is under team control. His supposed “slump” last year was likely because he switched teams just as the season was starting. Other factors of a “bloated” 2.54 ERA last year, he gave up a .414 BABIP with RISP last season compared with .283 career. In the second half, his batting average against was .120. Career OPS allowed vs. AL is .399. He is going to dominate.
Rick: Under – Keith Foulke like year (2004) with more K’s.
Koji Uehara – 40 Innings Pitched
Sean: Under – He barely cracked 40 innings last year and the Red Sox will need to be more cautious with his workload now that he’ll be turning 41 years old. The added depth in the bullpen will allow Farrell to be conservative with his usage of Uehara. His age and recent injury history suggests a stint on the DL at some point this season can be expected, even if it’s only to let him rest for a couple weeks to recharge his batteries.
Drew: Over – This will be a close one if only because everything you expect to go your way isn’t going to go your way and at some point someone will disappoint. He will be 41 in April so a breakdown could be coming. With the depth of the bullpen with the addition of Kimbrel and Carson Smith, he won’t be as leaned on as he was in past years. The 8th inning will be his and my bet is he will excel in that role and put up at least 55 innings.
Rick: Over – Following Uehara’s 87 MPH fastball, Kimbrel will look like Aroldis Chapman.
Next: Pablo and Hanley