Race to 25: Update on the Red Sox Roster Battles

As the Red Sox opened up Spring Training, many questions remained regarding who would fill out the 25-man roster and what role each player would have.

As the Red Sox opened up Spring Training, many questions remained regarding who would fill out the 25-man roster and what role each player would have, which resulted in a camp full of competition.  This is the second edition of the weekly update on the progress of those roster battles. You can read the first edition here.

The pitcher and position battles we are currently tracking in camp include:

1. The Starting Rotation
2. The Second LHP in Bullpen
3. The Fifth RHP in Bullpen
4. The Starting Third Baseman
5. The Bench.

As for every one of the roster battles this spring, you must take into account that John Farrell‘s seat could not be hotter.  There is a reason why the Red Sox made the decision to pay bench coach Torey Lovullo a manager’s salary.  Therefore, although it is only Spring Training , John Farrell is going to consider everything given the fact the decisions he makes on the above-referenced competitions may be his last if he gets them wrong.

Next: The Starting Rotation

STARTING ROTATION

Due to an injury from earlier this spring, Eduardo Rodriguez has yet to pitch in a game.  Therefore, it is unlikely he will be able to build his arm and pitch count up in time to be ready to make his first, or even second, turn in the rotation once the season starts.  That means, in addition to the fifth spot in the rotation, the role of filling in for Rodriguez until he is healthy enough to return is also available.

The Candidates

1. Joe Kelly
2. Steven Wright
3. Henry Owens
4. Roenis Elias

The State of the Competition

Elias made his first start of the spring this week, pitching two scoreless innings and registering two strikeouts.  However, he also gave up four hits.  It remains unclear what the Red Sox intend to do with Elias.  As I wrote about earlier this week, he has the potential to be a very effective reliever, which is something the organization is considering as well, but he also happens to have the best track record as a major league starter of any of the aforementioned candidates.

In addition to having a solid debut, Elias received some coaching tips from Pedro Martinez the day after his start.  Martinez raved about Elias after their session, which should tell you something about how good Elias can be, as Pedro is not out there giving unsolicited praise for every Red Sox pitcher and never has.

Wright also pitched this week, firing four scoreless innings in a start against Toronto.  He was locating everything during the start, throwing his knuckleball for strikes with great consistency and he demonstrated how effective he can be when he is on.  Overall, Wright has pitched seven innings this spring and has a 2.57 ERA.  He has given up eight hits, two walks, and struck out two batters.  Opponents are hitting .286 off him.

Owens took the biggest step back this week, struggling mightily in Saturday’s start against the Marlins.  It appears many of his struggles during the start were related to him pitching like he had already won a spot in the rotation.  With runners on base, Owens was mixing in his pitches in order to get in the work, rather than executing the best pitch for that particular situation.  Owens has to be careful with that and he admitted as much in his post-game comments.  He is not David Price.  Price has earned the right to use Spring Training to get work in and command over all of his pitches, but Owens has not.  Owens has to be concerned about the results at this point in his career and at this point in the competition.

With Rodriguez’s injury, Kelly, who was already a favorite to win the final spot in the rotation, will certainly open the season as one of the Red Sox five starters.  With that said, he did make his second start of the spring this week, which he got through just fine.  Overall, Kelly has pitched 4.1 innings and has a 2.08 ERA.  He has allowed eight baserunners in his four innings of work, which is concerning, but has also struck out three batters.  Opponents are hitting .278 off him this spring.

The Leaderboard

As of today, assuming Rodriguez’s absence, the starting rotation on Opening Day is likely to be as follows:

1. David Price
2. Clay Buchholz
3. Rick Porcello
4. Joe Kelly
5. Steven Wright

The Red Sox like Kelly and how he finished last season going 8-0 over his final nine starts.  Any small chance of him not making the starting rotation was thrown out the door when Rodriguez got hurt.  As for who will fill Rodriguez’s spot in his absence, the favorite at this point is Wright.  Although I do not believe this is a good reason to keep someone around, especially if you think there is someone better on your 40-man roster, Wright is out of minor league options, which all but guarantees he will be in a different uniform next season if the Red Sox do not give him a spot on their 25-man roster.  That is going to affect their decision-making process and means he has an edge over his competition.  For him to lose this spot, he will have to be significantly out-pitched and that has not happened so far; hence, his projected position within the rotation.

Next: Second LHP in Bullpen

FIFTH RIGHT-HANDER IN BULLPEN

There are five spots available for right-handed relievers in the Red Sox bullpen.  Assuming health, the first four are going to Craig Kimbrel, Koji Uehara, Carson Smith and Junichi Tazawa, leaving one spot available.  John Farrell has gone on record indicating he would like the fifth spot to be filled by someone who can pitch multiple innings.

The Candidates

1. Steven Wright
2. Matt Barnes

The State of the Competition

As discussed in a prior slide on the starting rotation, Wright pitched four scoreless innings this week.  Wright has pitched seven innings this spring and has compiled a 2.57 ERA.  Based on the length of his appearances thus far, Wright is clearly capable of providing the Red Sox with multiple innings of work out of the bullpen.  However, he appears to be the favorite to land a spot in the Opening Day starting rotation, which puts Barnes in control of his own destiny this spring.  Could Carlos Marmol emerge as a candidate in this competition?  It is possible, but unlikely.  Marmol has not been very effective in years and regardless, he is not a multiple-inning pitcher.

Putting aside the situation involving Wright and the starting rotation, Barnes is currently pitching his way into the fifth right-hander spot in the bullpen.  Over 3.2 innings of work this spring, Barnes has yet to give up a run and has struck out five batters while walking only one.  Opponents are hitting a measly .167 off him.

The Leaderboard

1. Matt Barnes
2. Steven Wright

Next: Starting Third Baseman

STARTING THIRD BASEMAN

Although Pablo Sandoval is almost surely going to open the season as the team’s starting third baseman, his poor play, along with Shaw’s continued dominance at the plate, is making that fact harder and harder for John Farrell and the Red Sox to live with.  Is there a chance the question of who should start at third is revisited should their current spring performances continue through the rest of March?  Yes.

The Candidates

1. Pablo Sandoval
2. Travis Shaw

The State of the Competition

Sandoval has appeared in seven games this spring and has registered two hits in 16 at-bats, which is good for a .125 BA.  He has struck out twice and not walked once, which puts his OBP at .125 as well.  Sandoval has played 36 innings at third base, and has two errors on nine defensive chances, giving him a .778 fielding percentage this spring, which is worst on the team.

Shaw has appeared in seven games as well.  He is 10-for-19 overall at the plate, giving him a .526 BA.  Shaw also has two HRs and eight RBIs, both of which lead the team this spring.  In terms of defense, Shaw has played 30 innings at the corner infield positions, most of which have come at third base, and he is 15-for-15 on defensive chances for a 1.000 fielding percentage.

The Leaderboard

Assuming this were a real competition, where the best player wins the job:

1. Travis Shaw
2. Pablo Sandoval

In reality:

1. Pablo Sandoval
2. Travis Shaw

Next: The Bench

THE BENCH

There are many moving parts right now on this Red Sox roster, which makes Spring Training so much more fun to watch.  Quietly, one of the biggest questions facing the team as they begin to construct the roster will be the makeup of their bench.  When it comes to roster construction, organizations try to optimize their flexibility.  That is why many believe Wright and Layne are favorites to make the final roster.  You maintain roster flexibility by keeping Wright and Layne and sending Barnes and Elias to Pawtucket, as the latter two have minor league options remaining.  In so doing, you get to keep all four strong arms, which goes a long way in a 162-game season where injuries occur frequently, rather than keeping only two.

The competition for the four bench spots seems to be evolving into a situation where the Red Sox are going to need to ask themselves that question: do we want the best players on our 25-man roster or do we want to maintain our roster flexibility?  Plus, in the cases of certain young players, such as Christian Vazquez and Travis Shaw, do you want them to be platooning this early in their career, or do you want them getting everyday at-bats, which is something they would only be able to get at Pawtucket?  So, that presents another wrinkle in the situation.

There is no doubt that Shaw and Vazquez are ready to contribute to the Red Sox right now.  However, they are unfortunately blocked from having a starting role on the team.  Shaw is blocked by Sandoval at third and Ramirez at first, and Vazquez is blocked by Swihart at catcher.  The assumption has been, especially for Shaw, that they will make the 25-man roster and be bench players.  However, does that make sense?  Do we want Shaw only getting 10 at-bats per week, maybe less?  Do we want Vazquez to catch two games per week coming off a lost 2015 season?  Should they not be getting more reps than that at this point in their career?

The Candidates

1. Brock Holt
2. Chris Young
3. Ryan Hanigan
4. Travis Shaw
5. David Murphy
6. Christian Vazquez

The State of the Competition

Holt has appeared in six games and has a .214 BA in 14 at-bats, with one HR, but his spot is safe.  He will provide insurance at second, shortstop, third and even the outfield.  He will once again be the Red Sox super-utility player.

Young, who just signed a two-year deal with the Red Sox this offseason, will be the team’s fourth outfielder.  Like Holt, Young has appeared in six games and is batting .214 over 14 at-bats, with one HR.

Hanigan has appeared in three games this spring, registering one hit in seven at-bats.  Vazquez has appeared in three games as well, registering zero hits in four at-bats.  As long as Hanigan remains on the roster, he will serve as Swihart’s backup.  Hanigan is  good defensively, and pitchers trust and rely on his experience, which will be important with this rotation.

As discussed in prior slides, Shaw has been fantastic this spring, but so has Murphy in his limited action.  Murphy has appeared in four games and registered 11 at-bats.  He is batting .364, has two RBIs, and has yet to strike out.

The Leaderboard

1. Brock Holt
2. Chris Young
3. Ryan Hanigan
4. David Murphy

Until Ryan Hanigan is traded, the bench competition will likely revolve around the fourth and final spot between Travis Shaw and David Murphy, especially if the latter continues to hit.  The Red Sox are going to hesitate putting Shaw in a position where he is only getting two to three starts per week, which is what would happen if he were kept on the final roster as a bench player.  At the same time, Shaw has earned a spot on this team with his performance last year and this spring.  With that said, if the Red Sox give the final spot to Shaw, Murphy likely walks, which hurts their roster flexibility.

As of today, with Murphy’s performance so far, I think the Red Sox surprise many by sending Shaw to Pawtucket and that is the right move if their plan for him, should he stay in Boston, is two to three starts per week.  He needs to be an everyday player, whether that is with the Red Sox or Pawtucket.  Plus, the Red Sox have Holt to cover every position that Shaw plays, so I am not sure how easy it would be to get Shaw those starts every week, especially when John Farrell has stated he wants Holt to get between 350 and 400 at-bats this season.  That will be difficult to do if Shaw is stealing starts from him at third base and Dustin Pedroia stays healthy this season.  In light of the foregoing, I project Murphy as the leader for the fourth spot.

Next: Projecting the Opening Day Roster

As of this morning (i.e. subject to change), based on the previous slides and the various leaders of each competition, I project the Red Sox Opening Day 25-man roster to be as follows:

OPENING DAY ROSTER

Starting Rotation (5)

1. David Price
2. Clay Buccholz
3. Rick Porcello
4. Joe Kelly
5. Steven Wright

Bullpen (7)

1. Craig Kimbrel (RHP)
2. Koji Uehara (RHP)
3. Carson Smith (RHP)
4. Junichi Tazawa (RHP)
5. Matt Barnes (RHP)
6. Robbie Ross (LHP)
7. Tommy Layne (LHP)

Starting Lineup (9)

1. Mookie Betts CF
2. Dustin Pedroia 2B
3. Xander Bogaerts SS
4. David Ortiz DH
5. Hanley Ramirez 1B
6. Pablo Sandoval 3B
7. Rusney Castillo LF
8. Blake Swihart C
9. Jackie Bradley CF

Bench (4)

1. Brock Holt
2. Chris Young
3. Ryan Hanigan
4. David Murphy

Next: Red Sow Wakefield Mentoring Steven Wright

Readers: What is your projected Opening Day roster as of today?