Red Sox Rankings: The Top 5 Shortstops in the AL
The 21 year old Astros phenom burst on to the major league scene in June of this year, the team likely only waiting that long to bring him to the majors in order to keep him from arbitration for another season. For a rookie to bat below the third spot in the order only four times in his rookie season tells you what the team thought of him. Correa was the number one overall pick in the 2012 player draft, tearing up AA and AAA last season to the batting line of .335/.407/.600 when he was called up to the majors on June 8. Correa might have made it to the bigs even faster if not for a broken leg in June of 2014 which took away the rest of that season. Correa posted a batting line of .279/.345/.512 with 22 homers and 68 RBI in 99 games and 432 plate appearances in his 2015 rookie year. He was a model of consistency, posting at least an .800 OPS each month in the big leagues.
All Correa did against the Red Sox last season was go 10 for 23 with two homers and two doubles, driving in six runs in six games, blasting his way to a .435/.481/.783 batting line. Just for good measure, he stole a base. Red Sox fans might remember his spectacular Boston debut last July 3-5 when he went seven for 15 at Fenway with both his homers against them on the season. While Correa lit up Fenway, he benefited from Minute Maid Park’s friendly dimensions, posting a .949 OPS there vs. just .773 OPS on the road.
Despite a playoff disappointment vs. the Royals last season, the future for the Astros should be bright with Correa at shortstop for the next decade or more. The Red Sox travel to Houston for their first meeting of 2016 with the Astros, April 22-24. Correa hopes to continue his Fenway success for the first time next season, coming in for four games from May 12-15. Correa and Bogaerts will likely compete for that coveted Silver Slugger at the shortstop position for years to come.
Next: 2. Xander Bogaerts
Bogaerts breakout year of 2015 started at the end of 2014, a year in which he endured monumental struggles with runners in scoring position (.153/.211/.219). This was the fallout of the panic move to bring back Stephen Drew at shortstop to try to rekindle the 2013 magic that wasn’t there, moving Bogaerts to third base on June 3rd. When Drew was dealt at the trade deadline, Bogaerts was given the shortstop job back on July 31, one which the Red Sox hope he holds for the next 15 years. He suffered through a terrible August batting just .123 in 83 plate appearances. September saw a complete 180 though, the resilient Bogaerts batting .313/.317/.490 to close the season.
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Bogie, as he was destined to be nicknamed, who had shown glimpses of what he could do in the prior September, blossomed in 2015. He didn’t come out of the gate terribly hot, posting just .694 OPS in April and .705 in May. In June, his OPS rose to .771, but in July, he became a force, posting a .371/.376/.495 batting line, feasting on good pitches to hit in front of David Ortiz. Among the outstanding splits of the 2015 season, the most encouraging is the .331/.364/.450 batting line he posted with runners in scoring position. This showed up in his 81 runs batted in, on just seven home runs on the season.
Bogaerts final batting line of .320/.355/.421 may be hard to duplicate as he benefited from an otherworldly .372 BABIP compared to the average of around .300 for the league. Versus left handers this number was .420, which is a remarkable feat over 172 plate appearances. The Red Sox are hoping that the power will start to come around in the terms of mashing balls over the Green Monster so that overall OPS can improve even if the batting average might go down. He has shown that he is capable of driving in runs, so in that third spot (where he batted .341/.375/.441) that he occupied for all but eight starts after June 25, he will continue to be an offensive force in what the Red Sox hope is a potent offense next season.
Next: 3. Francisco Lindor
Instead of the illustrious Mr. Tulowitzki, the surprising rookie Cleveland Indians shortstop Francisco Lindor gets the nod for the third best shortstop in the American League. The eighth pick in the first round of the 2011 draft, Lindor came on strong in September (.325/.366/.592 batting line), nearly snatching the Rookie of The Year award away from Carlos Correa, losing by just 15 points in the balloting. In the second half of 2015, the slick fielding Puerto Rican posted a strong .345/.386/.544 batting line which nearly won over voters. For the year, in 438 plate appearances, Lindor posted a .313/.353/.482 batting line
Perhaps it was Lindor’s struggles against the Red Sox that kept him under my radar until researching this article. He was just four for 23 against Boston in six games. Of course hitting is only one side of a player’s skills and Lindor’s fielding prowess put him into that third spot for me. Lindor led the American League in Total Zone Runs with 14, a metric comparable to the stat Defensive Runs Saved which is measured against the rest of the major leagues. This was playing in just 99 games in his rookie season. To give an idea of the enormity of that stat, Alex Rodriguez in 1272 career games at shortstop had just 18 Total Zone Runs for his career. Lindor is an elite defender who should be in the discussion for Gold Glove each season.
Another stat that shows Lindor’s importance to his team’s offensive success is his number of sacrifice bunts. Lindor led the league with 13 sacrifice bunts playing for Terry Francona whose time in Boston is not recalled as a time in which that offensive tool was used too often. Given Lindor’s offensive skill, those who hate the bunt certainly cringe at the thought of Lindor giving himself up. Francona has been around long enough to know the best methods for his team, so people will have to trust that he knows what he is doing.
Red Sox fans will see Lindor in Cleveland to open the season on April 4. The Indians come to Fenway for three games from May 20-22.
Next: 4. Troy Tulowitzki
4. Troy Tulowitzki
Troy Tulowitzki became an American Leaguer just last season, coming over from Colorado to Toronto in a blockbuster deal that sent the now-embattled Jose Reyes out of Canada. What the Blue Jays got for taking on Tulo’s $98 million in payroll was an extremely talented player on both sides of the ball. While his gaudy .885 career OPS was due in large part to his .951 OPS at the hitter-friendly Coors Field in Colorado, Tulo also excelled defensively. The Blue Jays shortstop is the active leader in Total Zone runs with 102, placing third in the American League last year with 11, despite only playing 41 games in the AL.
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The question for Tulowitzki is whether he can stay on the field. He has not managed to play more than 140 games in a season since 2011. Last season, he cracked his shoulder blade in a collision with centerfielder Kevin Pillar which kept him out three weeks in September and hampered him for the postseason.
In my estimation, his checkered injury history as well as his unfamiliarity with the American League and its pitchers pushes him down to number 4 for me. Though he had just a career-low .659 OPS in 41 games in Toronto, expect him to be closer to his career norms in the hitting department. Tulo is 31 now, so will these new surroundings lead to a career resurgence after some tough years?
The Red Sox visit Toronto for the first time in 2016 in their season-opening road trip, April 8-10. The Blue Jays make their first 2016 trip to Fenway a week later, April 15-17
Next: 5. Starlin Castro
5. Starlin Castro
Starlin Castro came over to the New York Yankees from the Chicago Cubs in December for swingman Adam Warren and infielder Brendan Ryan. Castro seemed to be the Cubs shortstop for years to come, earning three All-Star nods and signing a contract securing his services through 2019. Castro was blocking uber-prospect, 2012 first rounder Addison Reed, who took over Castro’s shortstop spot in August for nearly the entire remainder of last season. The statistical dip for Castro was not encouraging, as he posted just a .671 OPS last season. But he did hit .353 after the move to second so it seemed possible they could both continue with Chicago. When the Cubs signed Ben Zobrist to play second base, Castro became expendable.
This is a former All-Star returning to his favored shortstop position coming off a strong end to the season. He will be just 26 years old to start the season in a new environment without a super-prospect breathing down his proverbial neck trying to take his job. His contract will be small by his new teammates’ standards so the pressure will be off him in that respect so he should flourish in New York.
Next: Red Sox sign David Murphy to minor league deal
It was a close call over Elvis Andrus of the Texas Rangers, but Castro’s on-base ability and power (double digit homers the last five seasons) give him the edge. The Yankees kick off the season series with Boston at Fenway from April 29 to May 1. The Red Sox travel to the Bronx to take on the Yankees for the first time in 2016 from May 6-8.
Stay tuned to BoSoxInjection.com every Tuesday from now through the season for a new Rankings article. Let the debate begin!!