Recap & Reaction: Quotes from Red Sox Manager John Farrell

Boston Red Sox manager John Farrell recently spoke with the media, providing insight on how he views the current roster and potential competitions within camp.

Boston Red Sox Manager, John Farrell, recently met with the media and spoke with WEEI.  In the interviews, he provided a lot of insight on how he views the current roster and potential competitions within camp.  The following is a list of his four most consequential quotes, with my analysis of its effect on Spring Training and the Regular Season:

Quote

“And I say no because of what Brock has meant not only to this team but his overall performance,” Farrell said. “I think what you’re seeing around the game is this type of player becoming that much more valuable. They’re not a backup or a bench player. He’s a regular utility guy who gets rotated in, and you see 350 to 400 at-bats.”

My Reaction

This is an interesting one.  Brock Holt started 129 games last season and finished with 454 at-bats, but 49 of his starts came at second base, 24 at third and 30 across the outfield, and circumstances at those positions have since changed.

At second, Dustin Pedroia was injured most of last season, but has entered the Spring healthy.  At third, Pablo Sandoval dealt with injuries last season and Holt was his only true back-up at the position, but this season, Sandoval is healthy and new bench phenomena Travis Shaw will likely receive some starts there as well.  As for the outfield, Mookie Betts was the only consistent presence in 2015, which gave Holt his 30 starts, but those starts went away once Jackie Bradley, Jr. and Rusney Castillo were added to the Red Sox starting lineup last August. With Betts, Bradley and Castillo opening up this season as the starters, that trend will likely continue.  Moreover, as oppose to last year, the Red Sox have a competent fourth outfielder in Chris Young, which will surely make it more difficult to find Holt starts at CF, RF or LF.

So, how does Farrell hope to achieve his planned number of at-bats for Holt, which will take approximately 95-105 starts?  Well, he is going to be the primary backup to Xander Bogaerts at shortstop and Pedroia at second.  He will also get starts at third base and in the outfield, albeit less than last season.

At second, coming off an injury-plagued season and being a year older as well, the Red Sox are probably looking to get 140 starts from Pedroia.  At shortstop, expect 145-150 starts from Xander.  Combined, figure a total of 40 starts for Holt at second and short.  Where do the other 55-60 starts come from?  Honestly, I do not know.  Even if he were to get a total of 30 starts at third and the outfield, he is still only at 70 starts.  My assumption is that John Farrell’s assumption is there will be injuries and that Holt will be relied upon when that happens, which is fair, but what if he is wrong?  Is it better for the Red Sox that Holt gets 350-400 at-bats?  That is something Bosox Injection’s Brandon Nickel recently examined.

Next: Switch-hitting Sandoval

Quote

“There’s probably a couple of spots open,” Farrell said [of the bullpen]. “Are we completely solidified on the left side? Who’s going to be the guy that gives us multiple inning capability, particularly earlier in the year when you’re going to go to that multi-inning guy a little bit more than you might come midseason….”

My Reaction

This sounds like a manager who knows he has to win this season. With two consecutive last place finishes in a market like Boston, he is probably right. His 2013 World Series win will not save him if the Red Sox falter again in 2016. Heck, if Terry Francona is capable of being fired, any Red Sox manager is. That is great news for Sox fans because it means Farrell, known for his painful dedication to letting veterans fight through months-long slumps, is considering changing the way he does things, which makes sense considering how strong the bench is this year with Holt, Shaw and Young.

With regard to his comments on the bullpen, he did not tell us anything we did not already know. There is room for seven relievers on the 25-man roster. Those definitely making the team include Craig Kimbrel, Carson Smith, Koji Uehara, Junichi Tazawa and Robbie Ross, which leaves two open spots for everyone else to compete for in Spring Training.  One of those spots is going to a right-hander and the other to a left-hander.

The competition for the right-hander slot will include Matt Barnes, Steven Wright, who is out of options, recently signed Carlos Marmol, with a dark-horse participant being prospect Pat Light.  Considering he is out of options and on the 40-man roster, which means he either makes the final roster, accepts a demotion or becomes a free agent, Wright is the favorite.  Farrell’s comment that the Red Sox want someone who can eat innings early on out of the bullpen supports his candidacy because Marmol and Light are not multiple-inning eaters.  As for Barnes, a former starter, he is more than capable of getting more than three outs in an appearance, which is why he is Wright’s primary competition, but Farrell’s comments indicate Wright is the definite favorite.

On the left-side, Tommy Layne is the favorite for more reasons than one, including the fact he is out of options. That does not mean there won’t be competition in the form of Roenis Elias, who was acquired by the Red Sox in the Wade Miley deal during the offseason.  Like Layne, Elias is tough on left-handed batters, holding them to a .227 BA in 2015.  However, what makes Elias even more intriguing is his ability to get hitters out from both sides of the plate, having held right-handed batters to a .247 BA in 2015. Therefore, while he, like Layne, can serve as a specialist, Elias has the added benefit of being able to come in for any situation to face any batter, which brings me to my next point.

Elias started for the Mariners last season.  He had his moments, but many think his swing-and-miss type stuff would play better in the bullpen and that is likely where the Red Sox would put him if he were to make the final roster.  But having been a starter as recently as last year, Elias is stretched out and more than capable of being the guy out of the bullpen who has multiple-inning appearances.

Overall, Farrell has two spots open in his bullpen.  One will go to a right-hander and the other a left.  One of the final two pitchers has to be capable of pitching multiple innings.  Therefore, if Elias is kept for purposes of being middle-relief, it is likely Barnes or Marmol will be the right-hander.  However, if Layne makes the final roster, the Red Sox will need someone in middle relief and that gives Wright the edge on the right-side.  My prediction – one of these two combinations compiles bullpen slots 6 and 7:

1. Barnes and Elias; or
2. Wright and Layne.

Next: No. 5 Spot

Quote

“…And are we set with the five guys in our rotation? Joe Kelly certainly has the lead on that fifth spot but we can’€™t ever take for granted that injury, performance, might cause us to make decisions.”

My Reaction

With regard to the fifth slot in the starting rotation, make no mistake about it, Joe Kelly is the heavy favorite.  With that being said, Farrell’s comments indicate his new approach this season and it involves an emphasis on performance.  He is not going to give Kelly another 10-15 starts to figure stuff out this year like he did last and he is not prepared to anoint Kelly the fifth starter because of a string of nine good starts to end last season.  Players are going to earn their spot and then be required to demonstrate a case to keep that spot once the year gets underway and that is a fantastic thing.

Therefore, if Kelly were to struggle this Spring, Farrell is prepared to look elsewhere and he will find options should he choose to do that:

1. Henry Owens – he will either be the fifth starter in Boston or the number one starter in Pawtucket. Quick sidebar: considering Eduardo Rodriguez and David Price are not going anywhere for at least three years, will the Red Sox be comfortable with three left-handers in the rotation?  Any way, Owens demonstrated in 2015 that he’s ready to compete at the major league level.  He started 11 games for the Red Sox last season, pitched 63 innings, and finished with 50 strikeouts, 24 walks and a 4.57 ERA.  Not for nothing, but his 4.57 ERA is pretty impressive considering the fact he surrendered at least seven runs in three of his 11 starts.
2. Roenis Elias – as referenced above, Elias was a starter for the Mariners and actually a pretty good one too, if you consider the fact he is a back-end of the rotation pitcher. In 2014, he started 29 games for the Mariners, pitched 163.2 innings, struck out 143 batters and finished with a 3.85 ERA and 1.3 WAR. In 2015, he started 20 games, pitched 115.1 innings, struck out 97 batters and finished with a 4.14 ERA and 0.6 WAR.  Fairly impressive, for a fifth starter, which is why he is an option.

Next: Ramirez speaking truth or passing the buck?

Despite having two strong options, like Farrell said, Kelly is the favorite for the fifth slot in the rotation.  However, it is encouraging to hear Farrell put the roster on notice that things are changing this season.  No spots are going to be handed out or kept because of who they are, what they cost in money or assets (trade) or how many options they have left (Wright, Layne).  This season is about performance and winning only.  If you are struggling or hindering the team’s success rate, and that goes for Hanley and Sandoval as well, your leash will be real short.  No one is guaranteed anything in 2016 and no one is above winning.  Good for John Farrell for setting that tone early on.