Red Sox review on Baseball Prospectus 2016
Baseball Prospectus has released its 2016 book with an insightful analysis of the Boston Red Sox.
The Baseball Prospectus team publishes an annual guide where they take a close look to each team, analyzing their Major League players and making projections for their rookies; but it’s not just that. With praise from veteran writers like Peter Gammons and even baseball executives like Jeff Luhnow, general manager of the Houston Astros, the Baseball Prospectus book is widely recognized as an essential guide for every baseball fan.
Personally, I consider this book to be one of the most accurate and respectable baseball guides. Even though most of the writers are declared fans of the team they’re covering, they successfully give an unbiased baseball analysis.
Why don’t you go ahead and buy a copy right here?
In this year’s edition, the Baseball Prospectus team began their analysis on the Boston Red Sox with an introductory essay by Brian MacPherson from the Providence Journal. MacPherson emphasizes on the change of philosophy the team has had on the last couple of years, mentioning the differences between Ben Cherington’s three years’ tenure as General Manager and Dave Dombrowski’s impactful six months with the team.
“Rebuilding is not possible in Boston”, MacPherson says before going deep into the Jon Lester and John Lackey‘s trade. His analysis regarding the moves made by the front office in 2014 is not only incisive but self-explanatory on how this approach sunk the team for two seasons.
After MacPherson’s essay, the players analysis begins. To list every single player mentioned would be redundant, so I’ll just bring up the most interesting points.
The first on the list is Andrew Benintendi, the Red Sox first round draft pick (7th overall) that took the Minor League system by storm and hit it like there was no tomorrow. He is being compared to Joc Pederson, Christian Yelich and Byron Buxton. His defense abilities are also mentioned, saying that his above-average arm might be best suited in Fenway’s right field.
Jackie Bradley Jr. hit at every single level in the Minor Leagues, but still hasn’t proved himself as a reliable hitter in the Major Leagues. He had that hot streak in August, but that was it. However, the Baseball Prospectus team believes that this was signs of good things to come. He is being compared to power-hitters like Jose Bautista and above average outfielders like Curtis Granderson.
The Red Sox have a problem with Blake Swihart and Christian Vazquez, but it is a good problem to have. Swihart was one of the best offensive players on the team during the second half of the season and even though his defense was still a problem, his athleticism will only help him to improve. On the other hand, Vazquez was recognized for his defense, especially his arm and pitching-frame abilities. He underwent Tommy John surgery last March and even though his recovery process has been decent, we won’t know if he lost any of his abilities at defense. The problem with Vazquez is that he never showed any signs of being a good offensive catcher, at all. His small sample size at the Major League level consists of 300 plate appearances in 2014.
The team can’t keep both of them because they are two of the best catchers in the League, not a backup plan for each other. They now only has to choose what do they want to prioritize, if offense or defense, which will be likely solved by mid-season.
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It is fair to think that Dustin Pedroia is blocking Yoan Moncada‘s position, but this might not be the case. Weeks ago, MLB.com ranked Moncada as the best second baseman prospects, but his athleticism might help him to switch positions in the infield. With Hanley Ramirez still being a huge question mark at first base and Pablo Sandoval underachieving in his first year with the Red Sox, Moncada might be taking over in one of those positions when he is ready for the Major Leagues.
Regarding pitching, the Red Sox are a huge enigma after David Price. A few days ago I wrote about Rick Porcello being a solid candidate to have an outstanding bounce back season and I still stand by that, but it would be dumb to ignore all the doubts that come with him after his horrible 2015. A healthy Clay Buchholz may be even better than Price, but we have never seen him pitch more than 200 innings in a season. Joe Kelly has potential (or “great stuff, as Ben Carsley from Baseball Prospectus usually says), but as the book says, we will never know when he will use it.
At the end of the day, the Red Sox are a pretty decent team on paper. We will be seeing the why we usually read about the team having one of the best farm systems in baseball; even last year we saw excellent results from their rookies. In 2016, we can only expect similar outcomes.