Boston Red Sox 2016 minor league All-Star predictions
Just who will comprised the Boston Red Sox 2016 minor league All-Star’s? Here is one writer’s choice for the organizational team.
The Boston Red Sox have a loaded farm system and the value was clearly demonstrated when they emptied one whole shelf to get Craig Kimbrel. But in the world of prospects, fame or ranking is fleeting and Sean Coyle and Bryce Brentz can give testimony to that. The sands are constantly shifting based on evaluation and the all-important “numbers.”
Being on top of prospect mountain can be a wonderful position for a sky rocketing future or to become another page in the book of failures. What does Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Blake Swihart, Will Middlebrooks and Lars Anderson all have in common? They were all once ranked number one among Red Sox prospects. Two on the list have long since disappeared from being considered star players or even having a complimentary MLB career.
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The 2016 season will start to bring the next potential wave of Red Sox prospects to the promised land of Fenway Park or the step back to the path to baseball oblivion. The Red Sox have an interesting batch and most of the talent appears to be two seasons away from contributing. The Pawtucket roster will be – unlike 2015 – a bit sparse of high-end prospect talent.
So just who will shine? I’ve got my prediction hat on my pointy head and will take all the numbers and swish them around with all the various reports and give my projection of the farm system end of 2016 All-Stars. If you said I’m just taking a damn guess – well, no argument here. The one criteria is that no prospect appeared or has appeared on the MLB level.
Infield All-Stars
First Base
The hot commodity at this position will be Sam Travis. Travis is a line drive machine who hit .300 in 2015 with some good gap numbers (32 doubles). In the Fall League, Travis hit .344 and had 10 doubles in 93 at-bats. The home run power has not developed and may never, despite his size. Travis will be planted at first in Pawtucket and if he continues to impress the 22-year-old right-hand hitter may even take a late season journey to Fenway. But he’s not my All-Star.
Nick Longhi is a 30th round pick and in baseball that usually means produce or be sent packing. The 20-year-old right-hand hitter and left-hand arm hit .281 at Greenville with seven home runs in 115 games. This is a pure hunch, but I look for Longhi to move up to Portland by half season and continue to develop in the power department.
All-Star: Longhi
Second Base
A yawn for sure on this selection of Yoan Moncada. The positive numbers grew exponentially during the 2015 season and Moncada is now top ranked for Boston and among the top ranked in MLB. The interesting aspect is the athletic Moncada could shift positions and is not necessarily locked into second. Expect Moncada to start at Salem and then advance to Portland and eventually to Pawtucket. A three league leap is something special for any prospect.
Where the Red Sox utility player of the future may be located is at Pawtucket and that is a former PTBNL – Marco Hernandez.
Hernandez impressed enough to be added to the 40-man roster and advance during the season from Portland, where he was an All-Star and hit .326, to Pawtucket. The 23-year-old left-hand hitter has most of his games played at short, but has played other infield positions as he will with the PawSox.
All-Star: Moncada
Third Base
If this was wagering the smart money would be on Rafael Devers, the 19-year-old left-hand hitting Dominican. The projections on Devers are either spot on or inflationary and only time will tell. The swing is smooth and the power is evident with 11 home runs in 2015. I have read comparisons to Gregory Polanco.
Since I am in a full hunch mode I will go with Michael Chavis. If it is strikeouts you like then Chavis fits right in with 144 at Greenville in 2015. If it is home runs, then Chavis belted 16. If it is average then Chavis’ .223 is somewhere between pitiful and pathetic – “P” words and not “F” words. Chavis is a solid defender with the skills to move to the outfield or first base. What I am looking for is the proverbial make or break for the 20-year-old right-hander who was a 2014 first round pick. He will “make it” in 2016 with more power and significant average improvement.
All-Star: Chavis
Shortstop
This would be a lock for former first-round pick Deven Marrero – if he had not played in Boston, but I see Marrero either spending time in Boston and/or being packaged elsewhere. If Marrero moves on expect Hernandez to move to short. So that changes the dynamics a bit and my pick for 2016 would be Mauricio Dubon.
Dubon has the potential to be the first MLB player that was born in Honduras, but played high school baseball in California. Doubon is a 21-year-old right-hander who is a very light hitter. Expect very little in the power department What Dubon does have is some excellent speed with 30 steals in 37 attempts in 2015 and some developing defensive skills.
Dubon will start at Salem, but if I was Tzu-Wei Lin at Portland I would scan the box scores since Dubon may be moving up during the season.
All-Star: Dubon
Catcher All-Star
The Red Sox have a very special dilemma with Blake Swihart and Christian Vazquez in that both are two potentially elite catchers. The catching talent is certainly in Boston, but the rest of the system is rather sparse. Catchers with some MLB experience are now in Pawtucket for support in case of trade or injuries.
Ben Moore, Jordan Weems, Danny Bethea, Jordan Procyshen and a host of others scattered throughout the system and the DSL all have one common trait – they can’t hit! The bats are duds and the defense comes in varying level of ability, but to choose one that will rise above the rest, it will be Tim Roberson
Roberson spent 2015 at Portland where the 26-year-old hit .300 in 57 games. The right-hand hitter has moved up incrementally in the system since signing in 2011 as an undrafted player. Roberson, however, has actually played very little at catcher appearing in only 22 games in 2015 as a backstop. Expect Roberson to split catching chores with Jake Romanski at Portland. Too bad Jon Denney blew up his career.
All-Star: Roberson
Outfieldeld All-Stars
The Red Sox have some question marks in Boston with Rusney Castillo and Jackie Bradley. The next line of replacement parts is located in Pawtucket with Brentz, Ryan LaMarre, and even Chris Dominguez. If desperation strikes there is Allen Craig. The system at the lower levels is sparse with one notable exception – Andrew Benintendi.
Benintendi just may be a rare find with power, speed, exceptional defense, a great OBP and the ability to hit for average. The stats have been repeated endlessly and the 2016 progress report will be interesting. Benintendi progressed enough to trade off talent. Benintendi may even surpass Moncada during the season.
When we did daily results during the season Yoan Aybar came up frequently when examining the GCL Red Sox. The 18-year-old is a lefty and very raw, but the potential is being noted. Excellent defensive skills and virtually no power – yet.
Danny Mars has a great name and Mars is a 21-year-old switch hitter with no power. A good defensive player with an average arm capable of playing all three outfield spots. Mars uses his above average speed – 13 steals in 16 attempts – and is your basic contact hitter who may develop some gap power. I look for Mars – a 6th round selection – to work his way into the regular lineup and get a .300+ average in the books for 2016.
The Red Sox minor league system does have a sudden shortage of talented young players, but things can change rapidly during the season and with the draft.
Starting Pitchers All- Stars:
The hot prospect on the pitching front is Anderson Espinosa. Only 17-years-old the right-hander is on everyone’s trade list when discussing swaps with Boston. Mid 90s fastball, good control, a killer change and a curve that may turn out to be his best pitch. Espinoza will be at the Faux Fenway in Greenville in 2016, but for how long?
Michael Kopech impressed one and all at Greenville in 2015 and especially the MLB testing protocols when Kopech grabbed a 50 game suspension. Kopech is a hard thrower with developing skills with a curve, slider and change. The 19-year-old is a power pitcher with a very high ceiling and 2016 will have Kopech tested at the next level in Salem.
William Cuevas went 11-7 with a 3.17 ERA in a combined Portland and Pawtucket season. The 25-year-old right-hander is certainly not in the rarefied prospect atmosphere, but throws strikes and keeps the ball down. I saw Cuevas at a late season Pawtucket game and he does have the ability to move the ball around with three pitches, but don’t expect anything above 92+ on the radar gun. Cuevas may be the only starter with the PawSox without MLB experience.
Trey Ball has been a disappointment since being drafted in the first round in 2013. A left-hander who is physically very similar to Henry Owens and also in pitch selection. The 20-year-old left-hander is simply not a hard thrower who relies on his ability with multiple pitches. A career BB/9 of 4.0 summarizes the primary issue and that also adds on pitching consistently behind in the count. Ball will start at Salem and move on to Portland with a sudden discover of control.
Relief Pitchers All-Stars:
I am truly fascinated by the 27-year-old right-hander Jorge Marban. Marban has flown more than a Senior Captain at Delta having stays in the United States, winter leagues, Australia and a few years of Independent Leagues.
Last season Marban went 7-2 with three teams in the Red Sox folder and posted a 1.31 ERA. Marban is smooth as one would expect with his extensive resume and can show a decent fastball and work three more pitches from it. The problem? A 4.8 BB/9. In 2015, the H/9 was 6.5 and that was in line with his entire career. In 13 PawSox innings, Marban issued four walks and one was intentional. I expect that BB/9 to decrease to 3.0 and the PawSox will have a solid reliever capable of multiple innings.
In 2015, the Red Sox transitioned Pat Light from starter to the bullpen and it just may pay off for the 24-year-old lanky right-hander. A hard thrower (94-97 MPH) with a skill set that includes a curve, change, and slider. As with many young pitchers, the developmental blockade is control and Light is not the exception. At Pawtucket it was 26 walks in 33 innings and that was reflected in a 5.18 ERA. Expect Light to tone down the walks and provide bullpen stability. Former first round (2012) pick.
I hate pitchers who walk batters and walk them in flocks so during 2015 Chandler Shepherd got my attention. Shepherd issued 10 walks in 67 innings in 2015 and for some reason managed six in 11.1 innings in the Arizona Fall League. Maybe a rattlesnake scare? Reports are his fastball is in the low 90s and mixes in a slider and curve. In 2015 at Salem Shepherd closed and was rewarded with six saves in 23 relief appearances.
Expect the former starter to continue his efforts out of the bullpen with Portland. Control gets attention and is a big plus, so reasonable progress could mean a trip to Pawtucket.
A 28-year-old left-hander who is a reasonable bet to walk more than he strikes out and is also coming off surgery. Daniel Rosenbaum does not throw exceptionally hard (low 90s would be an exaggeration), can change speeds and has a WHIP that some batters would relish as an average. To top it off, this is his second organization.
Rosenbaum will have a surprisingly good year with Portland and maybe beyond. Enough of a good year that he may even project as a situational lefty. Rosenbaum is truly my pitching long (very long) shot.
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Sources: Sox Prospects/MLB Prospect Watch