Boston Red Sox breakout, breakdown and neutrals for 2016
By Rick McNair
Buy (Breakout)
Starters not named Price will improve upon 2015 and that certainly would not be difficult based on how sour they were collectively, but there were certainly some serious upticks that showed all is not lost.
Joe Kelly and Rick Porcello had a resurrection in the second half. Porcello took a questionable DL vacation and Kelly went to Pawtucket to attempt to figure out how to harness his talent. Both were second half improvements and expect more of the same in 2016. Porcello will return to his Tigers competency of 2014 and Kelly – arm willing – will be what was expected when sent to Boston from the Cardinals.
Next up in the rotation would be Rodriguez and Henry Owens. Rodriguez especially showed some true grit when following up a pounding with a good performance and don’t overlook 3-1 and a 2.22 ERA against the Yankees. E-Rod finished 10-6 and projected over a full slate that is 16-10. Expect numbers close to that.
As for Owens the pitching road had a few more potholes, but the talent is certainly there and a 4-4 record and 4.57 ERA are manageable considering his youth and adjustment factors. Expect his walks to diminish and the peripherals to improve. Owens may actually start at Pawtucket with the sudden glut of talent in the rotation.
Rusney Castillo did not have a 72.5 Million season and that had question marks all over the place. For a positive start with defense as metrics – if you are a true believer – put Castillo in the upper tier of outfielders. The move to left field certainly tightened up the Red Sox outfield, but after Ramirez, Steven Hawking would be an improvement.
My faith is with the Red Sox scouting department who have done an excellent job in international scouting, so is Castillo just an expensive blunder? I think not. Look for Dwight Evans type numbers.
Expect an All-Star appearance and some serious MVP considerations for Mookie Betts. A taste in 2014 and 2015 got all of RSN giddy with the future for Mookie a player I truly believe will have his number plastered on that right field outcropping in a few decades.
Travis Shaw has power and an innate ability to hit his fellow left-handers who pitch by swatting .329. The other number is that six of Shaw’s 13 home runs were against left-handers. Looking for a downside is that Shaw hit almost 100 points lower on the road, but what he does hit usually leaves the yard with five road home runs.
Shaw is a nice insurance policy since he can play both third and first and both those positions have some weighty (yes, a cheap shot) questions to be answered. Shaw may not be a .300 hitter as he was in August, but he is smart with excellent pitch recognition and the power that could be in the 30+ home run range. Expect a nice 2016.
My off the rails breakout or recovery in this case, is Allen Craig. Craig did absolutely nothing in 2015 in Pawtucket or Boston to even remotely show any capability with a bat besides using it as a back scratcher. The Red Sox are stuck with millions for a player no one else wanted, but spring training may show a difference.
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Craig will grab some positive attention and that ultimately can be translated into opportunity with Boston or a team willing to take a chance and absorb a contract. Craig is a hitter and always has been. A capable bat that can spray the ball around the field with decent power and all of a sudden it vanished. My bet is it returns.
Sources: FanGraphs/Baseball-Reference