Boston Red Sox breakout, breakdown and neutrals for 2016
The Boston Red Sox will have some players breakout, breakdown and perform neutral in 2016. Let’s look at some possibilities.
The Boston Red Sox will have some failures in 2016 and some successes. Other players will perform right in the capacity expected and this is eerily similar to one of my other favorite pastimes – losing money in the stock market.
With research on markets, you can simplify it with three each to follow determinations: Buy, sell or neutral. All are self-explanatory and can be applied to baseball prognostication or – for a far more appropriate term – guesses.
The 2015 season brought a group of players that certainly had a designation that would slide comfortably into a baseball version of stocks with breakdown, breakout and neutral. Some reasonable examples certainly dotted the statistical landscape in 2015. An obvious neutral would be David Ortiz, who may have appeared as a breakdown, but eventually churned out a typical Ortiz season. With Ortiz, you have to follow historical references and realize the final outcome will be 30/100.
The breakout was a far more productive category with Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Blake Swihart and Eduardo Rodriguez among the handful of young players who salvaged emotionally a season that was disastrous. Occasionally a player will have a breakdown and breakout compacted into two segments of the season – Joe Kelly is one and a case can be made for Rick Porcello.
The breakdown is where I ignore breakdown emeritus Clay Buchholz. The seasons presented to the faithful by Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval will become Red Sox folklore as seasons march on. Their 2015 legend of incompetence will be historic unless a miraculous career resuscitation takes place.
So what about 2016? Just who will suddenly find a lost career or create a new one? Will the production be as expected from others and thus a neutral? My only picks using my sophisticated TRS-80 number cruncher and proprietary algorithms (guesses) are as follows.
The Neutrals
I will certainly repeat myself. Expect Ortiz to follow-up 2015 with a mirror of 2016. Age seems to have minimal impact on his performance and the long-term results are what one would expect – that being the final season tally that suggests another 30 home runs and a 100 RBI. Of course, injuries are the wild card with any player and Ortiz is certainly not exempt with a 40 hung in his age category.
Bogaerts had a breakout year and the baseball die is cast. Expect the suddenly found ability to hit to all fields to continue with, of course, a slight increase of power. Bogaerts appears to be a player that can pop 20 or so out of the yard with the price being paid in batting average and a staggeringly high BABIP (.372). Expect the average to drop a bit with the offset being a few more home runs and doubles.
Brock Holt will play a bundle of games with a plate appearance total that could qualify for a batting championship if he had the average – which he will not. Boston’s own Edward Everett Hale wrote “The Man Without a Country” and Holt is the man without a position and that could certainly curtail my previous mention of average and PA’s.
Miracles occasionally do happen and if Sandoval and Ramirez suddenly resemble contributing MLB players someone has to sit and Mr. Someone could be Holt. Add Rusney Castillo to that list of achievers, and even more games could disappear from the Holt ledger and don’t discount Travis Shaw. Shaw has corner position power and Hold does not, but when Holt does play you will see the positives you have always seen.
If David Price performs at 2015 standards the Red Sox will win the division. A bold or not so bold prediction since that is what Price accomplished for Toronto after being traded by Detroit. Price went 18-5 with a 2.45 ERA and with the Jays that was 9-1. The Jays produce runs and so will the Red Sox, so expect potential runs to be protected with a superior bullpen. Price is now in the relaxing middle-age of his baseball career.
Craig Kimbrel cost a nice chunk out of the farm system, but that chunk was palatable considering that the players shipped out were road blocked in Boston. The negative – hey, I’m a Red Sox fan – is a slight trend in the numbers downward from lights out to just incredible. The HR/9 almost reached 1.0 and the BB/9 remains a precariously close to 3.50 and the ERA jolted upwards – especially at pitcher-friendly Petco Park.
I’ll put the negativity under the concerned category and even a repeat of 2015 would make Kimbrel one of the best in the game while allowing a positive restructuring of a dreadful bullpen.
Sell (Breakdown)
A tale of two halves may be a warning sign on newly acquired Carson Smith. The ERA jumped from 1.73 to 2.94. Of further concern is the divide between home and road figures with the split being 1.50 ERA at home and 3.18 on the road. WHIP also shows a similar divide at 0.75 to 1.29. On the road, Smith allows almost a hit an inning. Smith also can close, but can he? The save figure was 13 in 18 attempts for a 72% figure.
If Smith tosses out figures that are similar to his road and second half numbers you will have a dependable reliever, but not a spectacular one. At least, he keeps the ball on the ground (HR/9 of 0.3) and that will help at Fenway.
A pattern has to be broken and for Dustin Pedroia, it was in 2015, but only for the first half of the season. Pedroia clearly had lost some edge with the bat and the old Petey returned in 2015 slashing .291/.356/.441 until injuries interceded. The injury bug appeared a bit different in that it was not game related with leg injuries but wear and tear related. At 32-years-old that is not a sign one wishes to see.
Pedroia is a superior fielder either using metrics or the eyeball test. Last season that disappeared and Pedroia slipped into the average range – a startling drop-off for a three-time Gold Glove winner. I expect the pattern to continue with injuries of the nagging age-related sort.
Does a solid month make a career? Jackie Bradley simply was in another baseball universe in August hitting .354 with five home runs and 23 RBI and rockets to all parts of ballparks. Coupled with his magnificent defensive instincts, the promise of the past surfaced. Not so fast, amigos.
The rest of the season was as dismal as 2014 and his failures of 2013. September the average sunk to .216, but with four home runs and 17 RBI you had some respectable power. September also saw 12 walks, so that does show a bit more patience instead of the flaying away of Bradley in the past, but don’t expect much in 2016 other than some great glove work. So, can the Red Sox carry fantastic defense with occasional power and a low average?
Will Swihart go to the next level? The dreamers in RSN picture Swihart as a hitting machine that will routinely hit .300+ while providing gap power. Offense can certainly trump average defense and Swihart showed both in 2015. But 2016? Expect a bit of a drop off that will coincide with spotty playing time.
Buy (Breakout)
Starters not named Price will improve upon 2015 and that certainly would not be difficult based on how sour they were collectively, but there were certainly some serious upticks that showed all is not lost.
Joe Kelly and Rick Porcello had a resurrection in the second half. Porcello took a questionable DL vacation and Kelly went to Pawtucket to attempt to figure out how to harness his talent. Both were second half improvements and expect more of the same in 2016. Porcello will return to his Tigers competency of 2014 and Kelly – arm willing – will be what was expected when sent to Boston from the Cardinals.
Next up in the rotation would be Rodriguez and Henry Owens. Rodriguez especially showed some true grit when following up a pounding with a good performance and don’t overlook 3-1 and a 2.22 ERA against the Yankees. E-Rod finished 10-6 and projected over a full slate that is 16-10. Expect numbers close to that.
As for Owens the pitching road had a few more potholes, but the talent is certainly there and a 4-4 record and 4.57 ERA are manageable considering his youth and adjustment factors. Expect his walks to diminish and the peripherals to improve. Owens may actually start at Pawtucket with the sudden glut of talent in the rotation.
Rusney Castillo did not have a 72.5 Million season and that had question marks all over the place. For a positive start with defense as metrics – if you are a true believer – put Castillo in the upper tier of outfielders. The move to left field certainly tightened up the Red Sox outfield, but after Ramirez, Steven Hawking would be an improvement.
My faith is with the Red Sox scouting department who have done an excellent job in international scouting, so is Castillo just an expensive blunder? I think not. Look for Dwight Evans type numbers.
Expect an All-Star appearance and some serious MVP considerations for Mookie Betts. A taste in 2014 and 2015 got all of RSN giddy with the future for Mookie a player I truly believe will have his number plastered on that right field outcropping in a few decades.
Travis Shaw has power and an innate ability to hit his fellow left-handers who pitch by swatting .329. The other number is that six of Shaw’s 13 home runs were against left-handers. Looking for a downside is that Shaw hit almost 100 points lower on the road, but what he does hit usually leaves the yard with five road home runs.
Shaw is a nice insurance policy since he can play both third and first and both those positions have some weighty (yes, a cheap shot) questions to be answered. Shaw may not be a .300 hitter as he was in August, but he is smart with excellent pitch recognition and the power that could be in the 30+ home run range. Expect a nice 2016.
My off the rails breakout or recovery in this case, is Allen Craig. Craig did absolutely nothing in 2015 in Pawtucket or Boston to even remotely show any capability with a bat besides using it as a back scratcher. The Red Sox are stuck with millions for a player no one else wanted, but spring training may show a difference.
Next: Red Sox David Ortiz to teach Hanley Ramirez how to DH
Craig will grab some positive attention and that ultimately can be translated into opportunity with Boston or a team willing to take a chance and absorb a contract. Craig is a hitter and always has been. A capable bat that can spray the ball around the field with decent power and all of a sudden it vanished. My bet is it returns.
Sources: FanGraphs/Baseball-Reference