Red Sox are clear winners in the Rick Porcello contract
Rick Porcello had a rough first season with the Boston Red Sox, but his contract doesn’t look as bad when compared to what other pitchers have received.
Although the Boston Red Sox made numerous mistakes last offseason, namely, the contracts given to Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez, the four-year, $82 million dollar extension given to pitcher Rick Porcello was not one of them.
In evaluating any deal, it is absolutely critical that you do so from the state of mind in which the agreement was made and not after the fact, i.e. playing Monday morning quarterback. In looking back and re-examining the contracts signed in the winter of 2015, which all of Red Sox Nation is criticizing today as a result of their performances this past year, it became clear that not only did the Porcello deal make sense back when it was signed, but this past offseason makes it look like a steal.
Porcello signed the extension with the Red Sox before the season started in April of 2015. The annual average value (AAV) of the contract is $20.5 million, and it pays him for his age-27-through-30 seasons.
Prior to signing the extension with the Red Sox, Porcello had spent six seasons with the Detroit Tigers and was one of their most durable and reliable starters throughout his time there, having started 31, 27, 31, 31, 29 and 31 games, respectively. He was also a double-digit game winner in each of the six seasons.
In 2011, Porcello finished with an ERA of 4.75 and ERA+ of 87. In 2012, he finished the season with a 4.59 ERA and 93 ERA+. And in 2013, he finished with an ERA of 4.32 and an ERA+ of 96.
In 2014, which was his final season before agreeing to the contract with the Red Sox, Porcello finished with a career-high in wins (15), a career-best ERA of 3.43 and ERA+ of 113, and three complete game shutouts. Therefore, at the time of his deal with Boston, he was entering his seventh MLB season, coming off his best season yet and was only 25-years-old. How often do you see teams signing free agents entering their prime long-term? Never, and that is because until recently players were not being brought up to the majors at 21-years-old, like Porcello was, so they could get their six years of service time in order to reach free agency at a young age.
In addition to the timing being right for the Red Sox front office when they signed Porcello to the deal they did, if you consider his age and 2014 performance, it was also the market forces dictating him being worth an AAV of $20 million.
Next: Pre-Porcello Contract Market
The Pre-Porcello Contract Market.
Max Scherzer– Seven years, $210 million (AAV = $31 million)
Scherzer signed this contract with the Nationals four months before Porcello signed his with the Red Sox. The contract Washington gave him would pay him $31 million for his age-30-through-36 seasons. In his previous five seasons, all with the Tigers, he compiled a 3.52 ERA and an ERA+ of 117. However, it is what he did in 2013 (21 wins, 2.90 ERA and the CY Young) and 2014 (18 wins, 3.15 ERA) that netted him the annual average of $31 million.
Porcello Contract Comparison: The Red Sox are paying Porcello $11 million less per season. The main difference between the two, other than stuff, which Scherzer is no doubt superior, is the age difference. While Washington is getting the down years, Boston is getting prime years. The odds of the Nationals receiving anywhere near a $31 million-valued performance from Scherzer is slim-to-none, but the Red Sox have a real chance to receive close to $20 million in value from Porcello over the next four seasons. It is also worth noting that Porcello and Scherzer had very good walk years.
I am not suggesting Porcello is better than Scherzer, but the value of his contract is, and it is more likely than not that the Red Sox receive more of their money’s worth from the respective deals. Given their age and history of performance, if Scherzer is worth $31 million per season and $210 million over the life of his contract through his mid-thirties, is Porcello not worth $20 million per season and $82 million over the life of his contract through his late twenties?
Homer Bailey – Six years, $105 million (AAV = $17.5 million)
Bailey signed this contract with the Reds in February of 2014, approximately one year before Porcello signed his. The deal would pay Bailey for his age-28-through-33 seasons. In the four seasons that preceded the deal, Bailey started a total of 96 games and pitched 109, 132, 208 and 209 innings, respectively. His best ERA during that period was 3.49 in 2013. In the other three years, his ERA was 4.46 (2010), 4.43 (2011) and 3.68 (2012). As for his ERA+. it was 91 in 2010, 89 in 2011, 112 in 2012 and 108 in 2013.
There really is no argument here. Porcello was a better pitcher at the time he signed his contract AND two years younger. Not only that, but Porcello’s contract is due to end after his age-30 season while Bailey’s is due to end after his age-33 season. Although Bailey had a lower ERA, you have to consider the fact that he was pitching in the NL while Porcello was in the AL. Normally, that is worth at least a half-run in ERA, which balances things out. The biggest difference between the two though statistically was their track record. While Porcello had six full seasons of MLB starting experience, Bailey had two.
Nonetheless, Bailey was given a contract worth over $20 million more over the life of his deal. Given their age difference and past performances, if Bailey is worth $105 million over six years, Porcello is worth at least $125 million over the same period of time, which coincidentally comes out to approximately $21 million annually and is exactly what the Red Sox gave him.
Next: Veteran pitcher examples
Veteran pitcher examples
Adam Wainwright – 5 years, $97.5 million (AAV = $19.5 million)
Wainwright signed this extension with the Cardinals in the spring of 2013. It would keep him in St. Louis from his age-32-through-36 seasons. Although this was on the heels of two great seasons in 2009 and 2010, Wainwright signed this deal after a 2011 season that he missed due to injury and a 2012 season in which he compiled a 3.94 ERA and 96 ERA+.
Given the age difference and their performance in the years preceding the deal, can anyone honestly say they would rather have signed Wainwright to this contract than the one the Red Sox signed Porcello? He had missed all of 2011 and then accumulated a near-4 ERA in his walk year, which is made much less impressive when you consider the league and division at the time. Regardless, if a 32-year-old Wainwright, coming off the two seasons he was, is worth $19.5 million per season for five years, Porcello should have received north of $100 million.
Jered Weaver – 5 years, $85 million (AAV = $17 million)
Weaver signed the extension in the summer of 2011, which would pay him $17 million annually between his age-29-and-33 seasons. Weaver and the Los Angeles Angels agreed to the contract following his first four MLB seasons, during which time he compiled ERAs 3.91, 4.33, 3.75 and 3.01, respectively. He had two seasons with over 200 innings pitched and made the all-star team in 2010 and 2011, the latter important only because they did not officially agree to the deal until after the all-star game that year.
There is no doubt that Weaver was better than Porcello at the time their contracts being signed. The reasons this deal makes Porcello’s look like a steal is the fact Weaver signed his in 2011 when the market was so much less for a starting pitcher and the age difference. While the Angels were getting a pitcher through his age-33 season, the Red Sox signed a pitcher through his age-30 season, which is a lifetime in baseball.
You have to consider inflation and the changes in the market, especially with all the television deals and increase in money in baseball. Times have drastically changed since 2011. Given the extreme market changes in-between, as well as their relatively comparable pitching performances in the years prior, if Weaver is worth $85 million through his age-33 season in 2011, isn’t Porcello worth over $100 million through his age-30 season in 2015? For the same reasons, isn’t he also worth more than $3 million annually?
C.J. Wilson: 5 years, $77.5 million (AAV = $15.5 million)
Wilson signed this contract with the Angels in December of 2011. Previously, Wilson had only been an MLB starter for one season, in 2010. In that season, he started 33 games, finished with a 3.35 ERA and an ERA+ of 134, but led the American League in walks. The deal paid him for his age-31-through-35 seasons.
Wilson received $15.5 million annually for five seasons after one season as a starting pitcher in 2011!! Moreover, in his walk year, he led the American League in walks. Worst of all though is the fact the deal paid him from age 31 to age 35. Therefore, Porcello had much more of a track record and was five years younger at the time of his contract signing. Between that and the market increase over the four years between the two contracts, how much more is Porcello worth than Wilson both in terms of total value and annual value? $4.5 and $5.0 million, respectively?
Even if you think Wilson was worth more at the time of their signings, which would make very little sense given the fact Porcello had six seasons of nearly 30 starts and was only 26, while Wilson, who was 31, only had one and his one season was about the same as the one Porcello had in his walk year, you would have to admit that it is somewhat surprising that the Red Sox only had to pay $4 million overall and $5 million annually more than what the Angels had to given the incredible market change that took place between the two contracts?
Given inflation, their age and past performance, if Weaver and Wilson are worth nearly $80 million over five years, Porcello is worth at least $120 million over the same period of time, which would be $24 million annually.
Next: Pre-Porcello Contract Summary
Pre-Porcello Contract Summary.
As you can see, the starting pitcher market dictated the terms of Porcello’s deal. Based on the six deals referenced above, there is no argument. The Red Sox got an enormous amount of value when signing him to a four year, $82 million dollar deal. I mean, that is basically the deal the Angels signed Weaver and Wilson to FOUR YEARS EARLIER. It is also $23 million less overall than the contract the Reds gave a middle rotation guy in the National League.
How did Porcello and his agent not use Bailey’s deal to get at least $105 million over five years, which is quite fair considering Porcello was younger, with more of a track record. Not to mention, they had all the leverage considering the fact Boston would have a tough time selling the trade of Cespedes-for-Porcello if he was only with the team for one season.
In spite of the leverage, the SP market, past performance and the prime years of service Porcello was going to be providing, the Red Sox will only have to pay $82 million over four years? An absolute steal.
Next: Post-Porcello Contract Market
The Post-Porcello Contract Market.
If Porcello’s contract was already a steal of a deal for the Red Sox (again, if you consider things as they were at the time of the agreement), its value only grew this past offseason.
Mike Leake – 5 years, $80 million (AAV = $16 million)
The 28-year-old finished the 2015 season 11-10 with a 3.70 ERA (in the National League, too). Following a midseason trade to the Giants, he started nine games and compiled a 4.07 ERA, which, if adjusted for NL-inflation, rises to over 4.50. Nonetheless, Leake received about the same amount of overall money from the Cardinals that Porcello received from the Red Sox, despite the fact he was a worse pitcher at the time of the contract signing and despite the fact Leake’s deal pays him through his age-33 season.
Jeff Samardzija – 5 years, $90 million (AAV = $18 million)
The Giants are paying him from his age-31-through-35 seasons, while the Red Sox are paying Porcello from his age-26-through-30 seasons, which is a distinction that cannot be overstated. Moreover, in Samardzija’s walk year with the Chicago White Sox, he finished with a 4.96 ERA, which was the worst of his career as a starter.
One can argue that Porcello’s contract set the stage for these two, but that does not hold water considering the fact the pitchers are completely different, especially with regard to age, which was Porcello’s biggest selling point. Although these deals are less indicative of why the Red Sox signed Porcello to a great deal, they still matter because it shows, at the very least, the foresight of Boston’s front office in predicting where the market was going to go given all the new money coming into MLB.
Of all the deals mentioned above, if you consider them at the time they were signed, there is no doubt that Porcello’s is the one I would choose to take on my team’s books. The value of having a guy like Porcello, who was trending upward and coming off a career year, for only $80 million from his age 27-through-30 seasons is second to none and represents a steal for Ben Cherington and the Red Sox front office. Here’s to hoping he can make the deal look even better by having a 2016 season similar to his final eight starts of the 2015 season in which he had a stat line of 57.1 IP, 58 H, 5 HR, 52 SO, 11 BB and a 3.15 era.
Next: Red Sox 25 in 25: Roenis Elias
*All statistics are courtesy of Baseball Reference
*All contract figures are courtesy of Spotrac