Red Sox potential first time All-Stars
Projecting which players from the Boston Red Sox roster could be in line to make their first career All-Star appearance in 2016.
We are still months away from any meaningful baseball games being played, but it’s never too early to start thinking about who will be selected to the All-Star game.
The Boston Red Sox have nine players on their roster that have made at least one All-Star appearance in their careers, a few of whom should garner consideration again this season. Since Major League Baseball can’t make up its mind regarding whether the Mid-Summer Classic is a game for the fans or if it actually counts for something, the archaic rule that every team must be represented remains intact. Combine that with the always unreliable fan voting process and we are left with a perennial issue of some players making the All-Star team over their more qualified peers.
Altering the selection process is a fight for another day. For now we’re only concerned with which Red Sox players are expected to produce at a high enough level to be worthy of consideration.
Brock Holt was the lone representative for a struggling Red Sox team last year, selected by AL manager Ned Yost for his versatility off the bench. With the team expected to bounce back to contention this year, the expectation is that they will be good enough to warrant multiple All-Stars, which could be essential in order for one of their young players to follow in Holt’s footsteps as a first time selection.
One would hope that David Price will make the team, as you don’t pay a guy $31 million per year to be anything less than an All-Star. Craig Kimbrel has been one of the game’s best closers over the past handful of years, making four All-Star appearances in that span. With an improved Red Sox team behind him, the strikeout machine should lock down plenty of save opportunities to boost his candidacy.
Then there’s David Ortiz, a nine-time All-Star entering the final season of his epic career. If he receives the Derek Jeter treatment then he’ll likely be voted into the game as a tribute to his legacy regardless of how he performs. A slow start last year dropped him out of consideration, but he heated up after the break to finish with All-Star caliber numbers, showing that even at his age he’s still capable of producing at a level that deserves a spot on the roster.
That makes three Red Sox players that have a strong chance to make the team, with a number of other veterans that could enter the conversation with a bounce back season. That may limit the chances of seeing anyone from this team become a first time selection, but if the AL squad can find room for at least one more, there are a number of candidates that could be worthy choices.
Next: Xander Bogaerts
Xander Bogaerts
It’s borderline criminal that Xander Bogaerts wasn’t an All-Star last year, so one would imagine he’ll get more consideration this time around after finishing second in the batting title race in 2015.
Bogaerts dominated the field of AL shortstops in most offensive categories, leading all qualified hitters at the position with a .320 average, .776 OPS and 4.6 WAR. While the home run power hasn’t come around yet, he led the position with 35 doubles and 81 RBI. He also made great strides in the field to turn himself into at least an average defensive player and the potential is there for him to continue to improve that area of his game. Bogaerts is still only 23 years old, so the best is yet to come.
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The challenge for Bogaerts will be the improved competition at his position. Rookie of the Year Carlos Correa is a budding superstar that smashed 22 home runs while posting an .857 OPS and 4.1 WAR despite not getting called up to the big leagues until June. The 21-year old may already be the best at his position in the majors. Cleveland’s Francisco Lindor was another rookie that was called up far too late to be considered last year, but finished with a slash line similar to Bogaerts with an identical 4.6 WAR. If Correa is voted in as the starter, that could leave Bogaerts battling it out with Lindor for the backup spot.
That’s without factoring in Troy Tulowitzki, an All-Star for the NL squad last year who moved to Toronto at the trade deadline. While Tulo’s production took a nose dive after he left Coors Field, we should expect him to rebound in his first full season in a loaded Blue Jays lineup.
Also beware of overzealous Kansas City Royals fans who voted in Alcides Escobar as a starter last year, despite that his .614 OPS and 0.6 WAR put him near the bottom of the league at the position. No sane projection model would see that mistake being replicated, but we can’t rule out Royals fans hijacking the vote again at the expense of a more deserving candidate.
Bogaerts should put up All-Star caliber numbers again this year, but the increased competition at the position keeps him from being a lock to make the team. Perhaps the AL will find room for three shortstops this year, but anything more than that would be a stretch. If there are at least four worthy shortstops to consider and the Red Sox already have multiple other All-Stars then that could leave Bogaerts as the one who gets left out.
Next: Blake Swihart
Blake Swihart
Blake Swihart may have been the worst defensive catcher in the league last year with -16 defensive runs saved, 16 passed balls and a middling 28 percent rate of throwing out opposing base runners. Luckily defense hasn’t historically been a priority in selecting All-Star rosters, so his offense has the potential to carry him to a spot on the roster.
The 23-year old got off to a rocky start last year as he struggled to adjust to catching at the big league level, but he still finished the year fourth in the league among qualified catchers with a .712 OPS. Once he eventually settled into his role as the primary catcher for the Red Sox, Swihart began to heat up at the plate. He slashed .303/.353/.452 in the second half, which would easily make him the best hitter in the league at his position if he managed that over a full season.
The upside of Swihart’s bat is what once made him one of the most valuable prospects in the organization and we got a glimpse of that potential last year. With a year of experience under his belt he should get off to a much smoother start this season, so if he hits the way he did after the break last year then he’ll have an excellent case for a spot on the All-Star team.
Another factor working in his favor is that the catcher position is fairly shallow in the AL. Salvador Perez was a deserving starter last year due to his outstanding defense and 20+ homer pop in his bat, but the rest of the field isn’t exactly overwhelming. Russell Martin, Stephen Vogt and Brian McCann are all proven hitters, but each of them is over 31 years old, which could be an issue at a position that typically doesn’t age well due to the beating they take behind the plate.
Swihart is the brightest young talent at the position who will only continue to improve as his peers at the top begin to decline. It’s only a matter of time before Swihart winds up on an All-Star team, which could happen as soon as this year.
Next: Eduardo Rodriguez
Eduardo Rodriguez
It would come as no surprise if Price makes another All-Star team, but could a Red Sox staff that was one of the worst in the league last year end up with two starting pitchers being selected this year? If it happens then it will likely be because of a breakout year from Eduardo Rodriguez.
The 22-year old lefty had a promising debut season, going 10-6 with a 3.85 ERA, but those numbers undersell how dominant he is capable of being. Rodriguez’s ERA was inflated by four starts where he was shelled for 6+ runs. It’s not unusual for a young pitcher to suffer some inconsistencies, but the Red Sox also became concerned that tipping his pitches may have been the culprit behind some of those brutal outings. Once he ironed out those mechanical issues, Rodriguez began to look like a top of the rotation starter, posting a 2.08 ERA over his final seven starts.
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If Rodriguez does make the team, it’s notable that the All-Star Game is played in prime time. Last season he was 8-2 while leading the league with a 1.87 ERA in night games (minimum 60 innings pitched). The All-Star Game is about letting the brightest stars shine and no AL pitcher performed better under the lights than Rodriguez.
Last season the AL team’s staff was made up of seven starters and seven relievers. While there are no rules dictating that there must be an equal number of starters and relievers (the NL team had ten starters), we should expect there will be a similar split. Rodriguez would likely need to be at least one of the ten best starters in the league to warrant consideration.
Is it a stretch to think that Rodriguez is ready to be a top-10 pitcher? Well consider this – as a rookie last year he posted a 2.5 WAR in 121.2 innings, putting him just outside the top-20 among starters. Only Clay Buchholz (2.7 WAR) was worth more among AL starting pitchers while pitching fewer innings than Rodriguez. Extrapolate that value over a full season’s workload and Rodriguez would have been on the verge of the top 10.
If Rodriguez is able to build on his promising rookie season then it’s conceivable that he could earn a spot on the All-Star team.
Next: Mookie Betts
Mookie Betts
If All-Star rosters were based on final season results rather than the accomplishments of the first few months then Mookie Betts would probably have been on the team last year.
At the age of 22, Betts produced a stellar first full season in the big leagues, hitting .291 with 18 home runs and 77 RBI. He ranked 8th among AL outfielders in OPS and 4th with a 6.0 WAR. The converted infielder also proved to be more than capable patrolling the outfield.
Betts is a five-tool player with an enticing blend of power and speed. His 18 homers were more than any AL position player that swiped at least 21 bases last season. Baltimore Orioles third baseman Manny Machado was the league’s only 20-2o player last year, with 35 homers and 20 steals, but Betts has a strong chance of joining that club this year.
Last year the AL squad carried seven outfielders, which doesn’t include Nelson Cruz, who was voted in as a DH. The pool of outfielders got even deeper when Justin Upton signed with the Detroit Tigers and free agent Yoenis Cespedes could potentially return to the AL. Betts is one of several promising young outfielders vying to crash the party, so the competition for a limited number of outfield spots will be fierce.
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Betts is a blossoming star that can already make a case for being the best all-around position player on the Red Sox roster, so if you were willing to wager on which Red Sox player will make their All-Star debut this year, place your bets on Mookie.