Red Sox: Predictions and Grades for the 2016 pitching staff
The 2016 season is only a few months away, so it’s time to make some predictions for the upcoming pitching staff for the Boston Red Sox.
Grade: A
New President of Baseball Operations, Dave Dombrowski, flew to the rescue and fixed many problems the Red Sox had going into the offseason. As we all know, the Sox needed an ace, and boy, did we get one. With arguably the top free agent in this year’s offseason, Price signed a record breaking 7-year, $217 million contract. At first, people thought we paid him way too much money. But let’s be honest folks, do we really want to sit through another agonizing season where we have five 3’s, 4’s, and 5’s in our rotation? I certainly don’t.
Price was a much needed addition to say the least and I applaud Dombrowski for making the move, knowing the amount of money it took to bring him to Beantown. With his time in Tampa Bay, Detroit, and Toronto, he has a lot of experience against not just the American League, but the American League East to be specific.
Price has also never been injured before due to the fact that his main 2 pitches are fastballs and change up’s, which doesn’t cause a lot of wear and tear on his elbow, unlike a curveball or a slider. The Sox got a guy who can plug in 200-plus innings a season. He’s done it regularly throughout his career and I don’t see the trend ending anytime soon.
Playing at Fenway Park for any opposing pitcher can be a struggle. With Price having a career ERA of 1.95 at Fenway Park, just imagine his numbers when the crowd is with him rather than against him.
I believe that Price is going to have one of the best seasons in his career, I really do. With it being David Ortiz‘s last season as a pro, everyone wants this to be a season to remember. And why not have Price be the guy who will carry the rotation down the road and make it a memorable one?
Prediction: 19-6, 2.16 ERA, 219.1 innings pitched.
Next: Clay Buchholz
Grade: B
Going into the 2015 season, Clay Buchholz was the Opening Day start. That was when manager John Farrell said that this team had “Five number 1’s”…yea, I don’t think many fans agreed with that when the season came to a close.
Clay Buchholz can shine when healthy. You saw that in the first half of the 2013 season where he went 9-0 and posted an ERA of 1.71. But like always, the injury bug got to him, sidelining him for the 2 months. Red Sox fans have never seen Clay Buchholz throw like that ever again. There have been times after the 2013 season where he has shown that he still has the stuff to mow hitters away, but not on a consistent basis. Buchholz has Cy Young stuff, but when he trips over a ladybug, stubbing his toe, and sending him to the 60-day DL yet again, he won’t be recognized as one of the best.
Next season, I see Buchholz having an “ok” year. I don’t want to have big expectations from him any more because he can only break not just my heart, but also Red Sox Nation’s so many times.
If people were to predict him to come out of the gates red hot and then get hurt when we need him the most, I wouldn’t call you a fool because that may just happen. But as for right now, if Buchholz can stay healthy, I can see him be a good quality number 2 in the rotation.
Prediction: 13-8, 3.27 ERA, 174 innings pitched.
Next: Rick Porcello
Grade: C
In December of 2014, Rick Porcello was dealt to the Red Sox for outfielder Yoenis Cespedes. At first, I didn’t mind the trade. I thought we needed help in the rotation and after losing Jon Lester, John Lackey, and Jake Peavy a few months earlier in the trade deadline. I began to think otherwise after I saw the Opening Day rotation and then signing him to a 4 year extension worth $82.5 million before he threw a ball off the mound in the regular season.
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Porcello’s 2015 season was a struggle to watch to say the least. He went to 9-15 with an ERA just under 5. When Boston would go on a run and win a couple of games in a row last season, Porcello would be the one to get blown up and ruin that streak. Batters hit .287 against Porcello last season, ranking him with the second highest batting average against him. And when he got hit, he got hit hard. Porcello ranked 8th for home runs allowed with 25. That says a lot when he was sidelined for a month last season.
After being sidelined for most of August, Porcello came back and gave the Sox some quality starts. Nothing to rave about, but something you hope to see much more of next season. I think with Price in the rotation, Porcello won’t have that pressure where he has to be one of the top pitchers in the staff. When Porcello was with Detroit and had Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, and Anibal Sanchez in front of him in the rotation, he knew he had star pitchers to back him up. Now with Price leading the staff, expect Porcello to go back to the way he once was in Detroit and deliver quality starts on a consistent basis.
Prediction: 12-10, 4.12 ERA, 163 innings pitched.
Next: Eduardo Rodriguez
Grade: B
On May 28th, the young prospect with a lot of potential, Eduardo Rodriguez, made his Major League debut against the Texas Rangers. He did not disappoint Red Sox Nation to say the least. He went 7.2 innings without allowing a run.
If I were the manager, I would have Rodriguez as the number 3 in the rotation. I think he is going to be special. But my early predictions have Porcello ahead of him simply because of his veteran presence and that the Sox think he won’t have that bad of a year again.
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Rodriguez has the stuff to be a number 2 or potentially a number 1 in the near future. But there is one minor issue that may stop him from reaching his full potential. That issue is that he tips his pitches. Right after the All-Star break, Rodriguez faced the L.A. Angels and got lit up. The reason was because hitters knew what was coming. And when hitters like Mike Trout and Albert Pujols know what pitch is coming, you aren’t going to get the best results if you’re the pitcher. It’s so bad that announcer Jerry Remy knew what he was going to throw.
Now obviously this issue can be fixed, and if it is fixed, you will be the seeing the Eduardo Rodriguez we love for most of the season. I have Rodriguez as a number 4 right now, but that may change when the season gets going.
Prediction. 16-7, 3.04 ERA, 198.2 innings pitched.
Next: Joe Kelly
Grade: C+
Joe Kelly is one my personal favorites. It’s not just his pitching, but his attitude and humor that makes him such a valuable clubhouse guy. Kelly was traded to the Sox at the 2014 trade deadline from the St. Louis Cardinals. When you first see a small guy wearing glasses walking to the mound, you wouldn’t seem to expect much. But when Kelly fires in a 98 MPH fastball at the hitters, you then think you would see some positive results from him.
Think again.
The problem with Kelly is that he throws his 98 MPH fastball either right down the heart of the plate, or completely nowhere near the plate. In the beginning of the season, that issue started to show with Kelley. With an ERA of 4.94 in April, 6.53 in May, and 5.23 in June, Kelly was simply not helping this team. It came to the point where he was left out of the rotation for a little bit to find his rhythm.
Come August, after Kelley rejoined the rotation, it seemed like a whole new pitcher was on the mound. Going 6-0 with a 2.68 ERA, Kelly was locked in. His control increased dramatically and having the ability to keep his velocity up late into games really made him hard to hit.
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Even with multiple months where Kelly was hot garbage, I am still satisfied with him being our number 5. His hard fastball and slider with late tail makes him stay competitive. I think he has a lot to prove in 2016 and don’t be surprised if we see the August Joe Kelly rather than the April, May, and June Joe Kelly next season.
Prediction: 12-8, 3.86 ERA 156.2 innings pitched