Boston Red Sox 25 in 25: Clay Buchholz

The BoSox Injection staff’s preview of the Boston Red Sox 25-man roster continues with a look at pitcher Clay Buchholz.

There probably isn’t a player so polarising in fan opinion, and indeed in results, for the Boston Red Sox as Clay Buchholz. You either love him or hate him, he’s the pitching equivalent of Miracle Whip salad dressing. You’ve probably read a fair share of articles about him, likely from many of those publications contractually obligated to provide content with precious little to talk about after Red Sox President of Baseball Ops Dave Dombrowski got all the big offseason moves done early. Opinions will have swung wildly from “he’s the number 2 Boston needs” to “he’s the liability Boston needs to trade”.

More from Red Sox News

And you’re sick of it. You’re sick of it because Buchholz is a known commodity and has been for his entire career, all of it spent as a Red Sox. You’re sick of it because it’s borderline impossible to predict what kind of Buchholz 2016 will bring. He’ll be the superstar he can be and should be or he’ll bomb and that’s that. With that in mind, let’s change gears a little bit.

At this point, I think it’s incredibly unlikely that Buchholz starts 2016 outside of Boston. There was a tiny window of opportunity during 2015 when he was basically unhittable and his value was higher than possibly ever. In June he was in the top three pitchers in baseball with an FIP of 2.13 and WHIP of 1.16, July’s numbers were much the same with 2.40 and 0.97 respectively. He was sending away almost 25% of batters by way of the K and, for good measure, his fastball speed was back to averaging 92 MPH, its fastest since 2012. Teams were interested, and why wouldn’t they be? Only disaster struck July 10 against the Yankees when Buchholz, ever the ticking time bomb, met with yet another season ending injury. The story of his career.

He hasn’t pitched since, dropping interest from other teams and lowering his value significantly. Added to this, the bar for pitching prices was set at borderline insane this offseason thanks to the Atlanta Braves taking the kitchen sink from the Arizona Diamondbacks for Shelby Miller. Boston would only be selling low on Buchholz to move him and they would struggle, almost certainly, to find his worth as a replacement for the rotation. As we’ve discussed before, the Red Sox do need a number 2. With all that said, let’s look at what Buchholz will be bringing in 2016 when he pitches most likely, yet again, in a Boston cap.

Buchholz is a supremely talented pitcher, when he puts it all together. He has a four pitch mix including, alongside the aforementioned 92 MPH fastball, a cut fastball averaging 88 MPH and his two main “out” pitches – the curveball and changeup. His curveball is, even with the introduction of new ace David Price, possibly the best in the Red Sox organisation. Both it and the changeup have tremendous movement and bite, when Buchholz is firing on all cylinders of course.

That last proviso is the key both to his career and to his 2016. See, if there’s one thing we know about Clay, it’s that he gets hurt at the drop of a hat. I’d caution him not to read this article for fear of any number of repetitive strain injuries he could pick up along the way. Since his introduction to the Majors in 2007, Buchholz hasn’t pitched 200 innings in a single season, though he came close with 189 in 2012. The problem with 2012’s innings were that he wasn’t actually so good for them. He finished the year with a middling ERA of 4.56 and a similar FIP of 4.65. Not so dissimilar from any number of the Boston pitchers in 2015.

So either Buchholz is pitching for half a season incredibly well, or he’s attempting the whole thing and getting shelled every 5 days. If you ask me the former is preferable. Indeed, 2015 may have ended at 113 innings over half a season, but Buchholz was worth a staggering 3.2 WAR for that time, more than the rest of the Red Sox rotation combined. Or, if you look at it another way, even only pitching half a season he was still in the top 30 pitchers in baseball, the rest of whom all managed much more time on the mound. If you think about how Clay Buchholz was worth more WAR in 2015 than Noah Syndergaard (3.1), Justin Verlander (2.8) and Felix Hernandez (2.8!), then it starts to make sense that he will be an integral part of Dombrowski’s plans for 2016.

Lacking a solid number 2, Dombrowski is most likely to roll the dice on Buchholz again who can either land as an unhittable ace or a back-of-the-rotation, average pitcher. Either which way it’s probably worth it. Say Buchholz pitches like he can, with domination, but as it is wont to do, injury strikes. There’s a decent number of potential replacements available in the system already and perhaps the trade deadline will provide a more fertile trading ground for acquiring more pitchers to sit behind Price. It’s not unthinkable that Buchholz can carry Boston through half a season, and, if he does, his value will once again be maximized and Dombrowski can examine his market.

Or possibly Buchholz will flop and fall to his floor of average, middle-to-back-of-the-rotation starter. And hey, that’s fine too. His $13 million for the year isn’t much by today’s standards, certainly not for a pitcher with Clay’s potential. If nothing else, it gives the Red Sox another righty in their line-up, something not unwelcome with the presence of lefties Eduardo Rodriguez and Price.

Next: Red Sox top 10 memorable moments of 2015

It’s not an ideal situation. We’d all, Dombrowski included, prefer a more reliable option for Price to hand the ball to. It’s possible that, with less pressure to perform, Buchholz may have his first complete, successful year. There’s an equal chance it will be a disaster. Or perhaps, more likely, we’ll see him as he is – a supremely talented pitcher with all the stuff to be among the best but all the fragility of a papier-mâché bat. Either which way, don’t be so quick to give up on Buchholz. Dombrowski won’t.

Home/Red Sox News