Boston Red Sox roster HOF possibilities
Just who on the Boston Red Sox roster has a chance at Hall of Fame induction? Here are a few possibilities.
The HOF is watered down more than the whiskey at a sailor’s bar in Panama or Manilla. The names associated with many of the plaques simply are head scratching moments as one ponders what the voters – especially the Veteran’s Committee – had as justification? Is it being the recipient of having a cute little ditty such as “Tinkers to Evers to Chance?” Maybe just being a “good guy” versus a “bad guy,” but this is baseball and not the WWE.
The politics certainly have an influence if you wish to believe Curt Schilling, who claims his politics is a deterrent to his garnering more votes. And, naturally, is the influence of suspected PED use. The PED specter may have initially impacted both Mike Piazza and Jeff Bagwell. Personality can be present with some voters. Dick Allen is a borderline HOF player who allegedly had the deposition of a viper – maybe worse. How much that plays one will never know unless some real voter mind reading takes place.
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After the 2003 season if you told me there was no way Nomar Garciaparra would be in the HOF I would certainly check the balance on my equity loan to make a wager. Nomar is now HOF history or what could have been is now long gone. Ah – the unpleasant impact of injuries. So the idea of longevity comes into play. Would Carl Yastrzemski have been in the HOF if his career had ended in 1976 or 1977? Would Jim Rice have been a first ballot if his eyes allowed five more seasons?
The numbers game was once important and still is. The HOF was a guarantee if 500 home runs, 300 wins, and 3,000 hits were attached to your statistical chart. That seems to be diminishing a bit with a new look thanks to metrics and a younger voting bloc. Are 250 wins or even 200 wins the new 300?
Do not dismiss the importance of performing for a team constantly in the playoff spotlight or among the franchises that get a bundle of attention. Might be a few Yankees (or Dodgers) that have a plaque thanks to that set of circumstance.
Next: Young Player's With A shot
So just who on the current Red Sox roster has a chance at the HOF? There are a few that one could say are trending in the right direction, maybe one that needs to get out of a rut and then comes projecting some young talent that has hardly scratched the statistical surface.
Futurists Only
MLB Stats: 318 G, 1298 PA, 336 H, 65 2B, 4 3B, 151 R, 20 HR, 132 RBI, .281/.327/.392
Best HOF Comp: Lou Boudreau.
The pure projections are the only substantive reason to place XB on any type of HOF wish list. What is his advantage is he is only 23-years-old and is arguably among the best shortstops in either league. Physically, Bogaerts appears to have a body type that can perform without a monthly visit to the DL.
Bogaerts can hit and if he continues to routinely plug away at .300+ with some reasonable extra base power you have that rarity of a good hitting shortstop. And Bogaerts is no slouch with the glove and finished among the top five in various fielding metrics, so the path is clear.
You look at players with similar offensive numbers at Bogaerts age and four are in the HOF. However, six are not. Bogaerts’ 162 game projection is excellent, but not earth shattering. That, however, can change dramatically if the real Bogaerts is the 2015 edition and not the one of 2014.
MLB Stats: 197 G, 867 PA, 229 H, 54 2B, 9 3B, 126 R, 23 HR, 95 RBI, .291/.348/.471
Best HOF Comp: Andre Dawson.
The statistical sky is the limit for Betts, who appears on the path to being a legit five-tool player. What is also becoming noticeable is the ability for Betts to be a line drive machine. In 2015, it was 18 home runs, 42 doubles, and eight triples. Betts can hit and hit hard. Toss in 21 steals in 27 tries and a very good glove that at times borders on spectacular and you have the right path to the HOF.
Betts, to me, has a higher HOF profile than Bogaerts and as with XB it will be all about the numbers and that means a steady growth in production for the next three or four seasons followed by five solid core years before the inevitable slide downward. If that happens then another number will be hanging up in right field.
HOF Outlook: Strong.
A Possibility
MLB Stats: 1244 G, 5582 PA, 1482 H, 329 2B, 14 3B, 769 R, 118 HR, 588 RBI, .299/.365/.444
Best HOF Comp: Roberto Alomar
The awards have influence and that means an MVP and Rookie of the Year. And then there are the Silver Slugger and the Gold Glove Awards and a pair of WS Championship rings. So the hardware is present, but what have you done for me lately? Face it – Pedroia is in a funk the last few seasons.
In 2015, the old Pedroia had returned and Petey was on the fast track to turn back time a few years until the injury plague hit and, some of the injury issues were not play related, but simple wear and tear. At age 32 the best years may already be in the memory banks.
What Pedroia does have is a personality and intensity that certainly would swing a few fence sitters in any voting. Don’t dismiss the “little guy” aspect as most males can relate to the diminutive (by baseball standards) Pedroia. All those factors can provide a boost since emotion plays into any vote.
What Pedroia needs to accomplish is four or five seasons where the injuries are gone. In 2015, the figures clearly demonstrated that he can still hit when healthy. What negative there was on the field came with a surprising decline in defensive skills. Was it injury related or a peek at the future?
Give Pedroia the five solid seasons and he may actually break in on the first or second ballot. With three more productive seasons it may be a Rice situation.
HOF Outlook: Borderline
MLB Stats: 1328 G, 5702 PA, 1503 H, 315 2B, 31 3B, 881 R, 210 HR, 707 RBI, .296/.367/.494
Best HOF Comp: Joe Cronin.
The negativity that festered and surrounded Ramirez in 2015 will quickly dissipate if his remarkable April numbers return for all of 2016. Prior to 2015 Ramirez had some excellent power numbers and some award notice. A Rookie of the Year Award, three All-Star games, two Silver Slugger Awards, a batting championship and a second place MVP finish. What Ramirez also displayed was diminishing defensive skills and games lost to injury.
The move to Boston was an opportunity to reestablish and it failed. The disaster of left field and numerous injuries all conspired to make 2015 a resounding disappointment. So how to get onto the HOF track?
Point one is to stay healthy. Magical careers can be shortened by injuries and many a player that at thirty seemed a lock ended up like Garciaparra. The second point is to make the move to first base not resemble the one to left field. You lose votes with memories of flopping around defensively. Point three is to simply start hammering again.
At 32-years-old Ramirez does have some productive seasons ahead if it is all not about diminishing skills. Eventually a switch to DH could mean longevity and remove any albatross of defense from the HOF equation. What Ramirez needs is a consistent .300 with 25-30 home runs for the next five seasons. That would make a presentable statistical case. Ramirez must also remain a solid citizen as he did in 2015 and not revert back to his alleged negative clubhouse behaviors.
HOF Outlook: Less than promising
The HOF Lock
MLB Stats: 2257 G, 9465 PA, 2303 H, 584 2B, 18 3B, 1340 R, 503 HR, 1641 RBI, .284/.378/.547
Best HOF Comp: Wille Stargell.
Is Ortiz one of the best hitters of his generation?
So he’s a DH? What’s the problem? Frank Thomas spent more time as a DH than playing first base. Ortiz is not some bindlestiff with the glove. When he’s been forced into the position Ortiz has held his own. No great range machine, but the ability to corral errant throws and to make the smart play. Toss his career into the National League and his glove would be superior to Ryan Howard.
The HOF is a numbers oriented process and the number’s that Ortiz presents are exceptional. If Ortiz was retiring in 1972 and not 2016 there would be no debate. The post season heroics and a long list of clutch performances need no repeating. In fact, if Ortiz played in the period before the DH in all likelihood he would already have an MVP or two on the mantle. But he didn’t and he will be “punished” on the ballot just as he was for being a one-dimensional player.
The demographics of voters are changing and I suspect most who will now cast a ballot in Ortiz year of eligibility either don’t remember or were born after the implementation of the DH. As the years pass by that will change even greater as the old guard passes into retirement or eternity. So expect Papi to be an eventual entry.
HOF Outlook: A first ballot entry
MLB Stats: 104-56 W/L, 218 G, 1441.2 IP, 1261 H, 371 W, 1372 K, 3.09 ERA, 1.13 WHIP
Best HOF Comp: Whitey Ford.
Is Price one of the best pitchers of his generation?
A 20 game winner. Check. A Cy Young Award. Check. A long list on league leading stats. Check. A dismal post season record. Check. Price is on the statistical fast track and only injury will derail his express to the HOF. I seven full season the win total is now 104 games.
Price is now with an organization that will spend to win, has provided a comfortable base of young talent and savvy veterans and has a bullpen that is (hopefully) capable of protecting a lead. Price was placed in a similar situation with Toronto in 2015 and responded with a 9-1 record and 2.30 ERA. Now he is with a lineup that may not have the muscle of the Jays but can produce runs.
Price is in a statistical sweet spot with Boston. The prime years, good bullpen and a stellar Fenway Park history (6-1, 1.96) and that nice long term deal. Price is smart – very smart – and certainly is capable of being a dominant pitcher even when the heat fades a bit. The physical conditioning is there, so not to worry about the perpetual breakdowns of a Clay Buchholz.
Next: Red Sox 25 in 25: Dustin Pedroia
If Price goes the full seven years with quality in Boston his record will warrant induction. If the Red Sox post a few World Series wins and Price naps an ALCS and WS MVP or two then book his reservation for Cooperstown.
HOF Outlook: Another Boston cap at Cooperstown
Sources: baseball-Reference