Boston Red Sox: No Shelby Miller, no problem
Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports
The Boston Red Sox may have balked at the astronomical price demanded in a trade for Shelby Miller, but what options do they have for the number 2 slot in the rotation in 2016?
If you’ve been following the hot stove this offseason and, meanwhile, avoiding calendars and the mention of any forthcoming holidays, I can’t blame you for thinking it’s April already. With a bang, the offseason kicked off and the free agent acquisition dominoes didn’t just fall, they imploded. Boston Red Sox President of Baseball Ops Dave Dombrowski moved quick and took the prize, David Price, alongside other key upgrades that caused not ripples, nor even waves, but tsunamis. Panic buying ensued among other clubs desperate to snatch up the remaining talent and, at least, give the appearance of trying to remain competitive.
Costs for talent via both trades and free agency are obscene, don’t believe me? Look no further than perhaps the most lopsided and bizarre trade since Tim Fortugno was traded for a bucket of baseballs – the Arizona Diamondbacks sent Ender Inciarte, Aaron Blair, 2015 first draft pick Dansby Swanson and owner Ken Kendrick’s private jet to the Atlanta Braves for… Shelby Miller. Leaving aside the ridiculousness of the whole thing, that put an end to a much talked about possibility for the Red Sox. Behind Price, they said, Boston needs an established number 2 to solidify the rotation going forward. Now, nobody is anything but thankful that particular kind of momentary insanity afflicted Dombrowski and he made a similar trade for Miller, but the question of a number 2 after Price remains unanswered.
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Or does it? It seems to me, that if Miller is the target then the Red Sox may already have hit the bull’s-eye a number of times, without even realizing it. Skeptical? After 2015 I don’t blame you. Certainly pitching depth seems to be there, a plethora of back-of-the-rotation starters who inspire confidence akin to a chocolate fireguard. Joe Kelly, Henry Owens, newly acquired lefty Roenis Elias and even Steven Wright all have their moments, their advantages and their claim to a slot, however none of them come close to putting it together enough to sit at the front of the rotation.
After that, however, I think things are a lot rosier than we have been led to believe up until now. Certainly, Dombrowski and his army of experts aren’t sitting on their hands due to ignorance. There is confidence in what is already available and that, somehow, with the addition of Price and the shoring up of the bullpen, a number 2 starter can find himself.
Who are the candidates, how do they compare to Miller and what claim to the slot in the Red Sox 2016 rotation can they make? Let’s take a look.
Next: 1 - Eduardo Rodriguez
Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
Rodriguez is the most glaringly obvious candidate here and for good reason. Often you’ll hear him described as a future number 1, a top of the rotation potential, an ace in waiting. Of course, that’s all talking about the future and says little about his pitching ability now, at the tender age of 22. I see no reason that, in lieu of being that future number 1, he can’t be a present number 2.
It’s difficult to look at Rodriguez’s 2015 and take it at face value, it was literally characterized by rookie mistakes in a rookie season. We had several games early on that saw Rodriguez get lit up because he was tipping pitches, this would take time to rectify and would ultimately sour his numbers, but not his year as a whole. In 12 games out of 21, he gave up only 1 run or less. In only 4 games he gave up more than 3 runs. Guess the games he was tipping his pitches? Yep.
Even with the outings he bombed, Rodriguez put up solid numbers not a far cry off what 25 year old Miller, in his fourth year in the Majors, put up. Rodriguez finished up with an ERA of 3.85 and FIP of 3.92 to Miller’s 3.02 and 3.45 respectfully. Rodriguez had a K/9 of 7.25 and Miller, 7.50. It seems Miller edges it, but consider that Rodriguez is putting up those numbers in the American League, hitter heavy and home of the DH, and you realize that if anything it’s Miller who is struggling.
In many ways however, the two are similar. Both have a fastball that averages around 94 MPH and can touch 97 and above. Both are young and will ultimately get better. And, to that end, both are slotted in behind solid, veteran number 1 pitchers (in Miller’s case, newly acquired ace Zack Greinke) who will, it would be hoped, give them the push to reach their potential. Miller pitched more innings, 205 vs 139, but that’s understandable given Rodriguez’s delicate age.
So there’s not an awful lot between them at present and, it’s my belief in the future Rodriguez will step into his own. With Price helping him, he will only get better and that could start as early as next year. While the Diamondbacks had to send Inciarte (he of .303/.338/.408 line and golden glove caliber outfield defense last year) and flush their number 1 overall draft pick away for Miller, the Red Sox acquired Rodriguez for a half a year rental of closer Andrew Miller and, perhaps more clinically, they have him under team control for a lot longer.
It’s my belief that Rodriguez can step up next year and deliver even more consistently than this year. Much like Chris Archer and Marcus Stroman before him, he stands to grow under Price’s leadership and tutelage and, assuming all goes according to plan, he could well be the number 2 that Boston needs until he’s ready to take over the reins at the top.
Next: 2 - Clay Buchholz
Apr 23, 2015; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Clay Buchholz (11) throws a pitch against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Now, hold on, I know what you’re thinking. Clay Buchholz? He’s been around Boston since 2007 and hasn’t had a single full season to show for it. But wait one second, because, silently, Buchholz has been a valuable asset and perhaps even front-of-the-rotation guy all along. We just didn’t know it.
Recently Red Sox manager John Farrell expressed the belief that Buchholz was ready to go 200 innings. Hope springs eternal. Even if, as he is wont to do, he manages only half of that total through injuries, I feel what Buchholz brings to the table is significant enough that he can be relied on as the number 2 in the rotation.
Looking at his stats, you can’t help but wonder exactly how good Clay could be if he brought it all together for one injury free splurge. In 2015 he managed a mere 113 innings, but during those his FIP of 2.68 was one of the best in all of baseball, dwarfing Miller’s and putting Buchholz in the company of aces like Gerrit Cole and Jacob deGrom. His K/9 of 8.50 was his best since 2008 and his fastball sat between 92-94 MPH for the first time since 2012. This was all before the train derailed on July 10, of course.
Even still, that half a season run from Buchholz was worth a pretty remarkable WAR of 3.2, just shy of the full season run from Miller that got him a WAR of 3.4. In short – Buchholz may get injured almost inevitably, the proverbial glass cannon that he is, but even with that in mind he is still good enough to contribute what would be expected of a solid number 2 starter. He won 7 games in 2015 compared to Miller’s 6 and this was all during the period when the Red Sox languished with struggling veteran sluggers dragging down inexperienced young talent.
Buchholz may have the fragility of a paper bag, but he has the stuff of an ace. Put the two together and, well, it’s not unthinkable that one could expect the floor of a pitcher in the middle of the rotation that comes with a ceiling of a pitcher nearer it’s front. With the depth that Boston enjoys in it’s pitching staff, it’s not going to end the Red Sox postseason plans for 2016 should Buchholz get side-lined again. This, in my view, makes the gamble worthwhile.
Unlikely to find his value via trades, Dombrowski’s best bet is to throw Buchholz at the wall again in the hopes he sticks knowing that, even if he doesn’t, his contribution will be significant regardless. And there’s always that chance that he may be better than them all. With Price now occupying the top spot, the pressure is off Buchholz and off the Red Sox who relied too heavily on him in 2015. He may not having the staying power of Miller, but he’s the better pitcher and can, at least in theory, provide a similar benefit overall.
Next: 3 - Rick Porcello
Jul 24, 2015; Boston, MA, USA; Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Rick Porcello (22) pitches against the Detroit Tigers during first inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Mark L. Baer-USA TODAY Sports
Ah, you knew this one was coming, no? Porcello is perhaps the most polarizing pitcher on the Boston roster and with good reason. He was signed to an ill-conceived extension before even throwing a pitch during last season’s offseason. So noted was his decline in performance, that arguably the ire of the fan base is towards Porcello more than any other player, outside of perhaps Hanley Ramirez. For an offseason and, indeed, two years of abject failure, that alone speaks volumes.
Porcello finished 2015 with an unsightly ERA of 4.92 and FIP of 4.13, which doesn’t really tell the full story of how badly he got rocked on numerous, successive outings. Teams like the Toronto Blue Jays were hitting dingers off his stuff as if you or I was pitching it. Why then should Porcello be under consideration for the rotation at all, let alone potentially sitting by it’s front end?
Two reasons. First, Porcello isn’t normally that catastrophically bad. Spending four years previous pitching in the Majors for the Detroit Tigers, Porcello was a known commodity. A sinkerball pitcher with a 92 MPH fastball able to go deep into games and provide consistent, if not quite ace-like, results. His 2014 campaign saw a 3.43 ERA and 3.64 FIP, comparable to Miller’s if not actually better, in 204 innings pitched. In short, what we saw in 2015 for Porcello isn’t his norm, not even close.
Boston paid the price for not acquiring a top of the rotation pitcher and Porcello, still only 26 years old, felt the heat as he tried to accommodate for the club that had just paid through the nose for his services. His pitches were up and thus so was his long ball rate. He pitched recklessly, poorly, uncharacteristically. In the end he wound up on the disabled list with only tenuous evidence of an actual disability.
Still, that isn’t Porcello. Proof? When he came back from the disabled list, things looked different. His first outing back, on August 26, at the Chicago White Sox saw him deliver a 7 inning shutout and get the win for Boston. To contrast, his last game prior to heading to the DL was also against the White Sox, only this time he was shelled for 6 runs on 10 hits in only 2 innings. Lest you think it fluke, Porcello was thrown to the New York Yankee lions for his next outing and only 1 earned run on 3 hits, striking out a career high 13 batters. For the rest of the year, Porcello was almost exactly what we thought he would be, a solid number 2 type pitcher. Indeed, he had an ERA of 3.53, FIP of 3.57 and increased his K/9 to 8.83 in the second half of 2015.
When you consider that Porcello was pitching in our very own AL East, if that level of performance is sustainable then he’s already ahead of Miller with only one extra year in the tank. And, to cap it all off, Porcello now is able to slot in behind Price, the pitcher he excelled behind in his breakout 2014 Tigers year and should feel far less pressure to perform as advertised. Indeed, his contract is very much the going rate these days.
Next: Red Sox players who can't miss and did
In the end of course, none of the players listed could step up and fill the position as a number 2 in the Red Sox rotation. Or perhaps they all might. Who knows, but one thing is for certain, if the Miller trade is anything to go by, they will get every chance to try and achieve it.